North American fertilizer market players presume that potash (MOP) imported from Canada to the US will be exempt from tariffs for now, despite lack of a clear definition from the latest White House executive order.
Potash that is mined and produced in Canada would be considered compliant under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and should not face a duty during the tariff pause initiated by the administration of President Donald Trump on Thursday, industry sources told Argus.
That understanding should account for the vast majority of MOP produced in Canada and exported to the US. Any potash that is not USMCA certified faces a reduced 10pc duty imposed this week during the month-long delay on the broader Canada and Mexico tariffs Trump has threatened, according to the executive order signed on Thursday.
Though the details of what form of Canadian potash products may not be compliant is unclear, the fertilizer market assumption is that no tariffs will apply if data can be provided by the exporter, importer or producer to show the product crossing the border is USMCA compliant, sources said. Examples of non-certified potash product could be compound NPK fertilizers, which are created by mixing nitrogen, phosphate and potassium or other micronutrients, sources said.
US industry association The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) called the new executive order's actions "a positive step forward" in its efforts to stress the importance of affordable fertilizer products.
On a nutrient basis, the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI.
But some sources have voiced confusion regarding whether other imported Canadian fertilizer products, such as nitrogen, ammonia and sulfur, would also be considered USMCA compliant. Although sulfur is wholly produced in Canada as a by-product of crude oil refining, and ammonia is created through the usage of likely Canadian natural gas, the situation would be less clear for phosphate fertilizers from Mexico, where some raw materials are imported.
The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023, where 15pc of imports came from Canada. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. And 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data.
