Opec has kept its oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for both 2025 and 2026 on expectations that the global economy will adjust to volatile trade policies.
US president Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on various goods arriving in the US from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on all imports of steel and aluminium. Some countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own on US imports, raising the prospect of a full-blown trade war. But Opec is confident that the global economy can adapt.
"Price pressures may weigh on global growth but are unlikely to disrupt overall growth momentum, which remains supported by resilient consumer demand and strong output in major emerging economies," Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
Opec also said that rising trade among emerging economies could partially offset tariff-related disruptions, but it warned that "downside risks need to be monitored given uncertainties in policy rollout and subsequent effects and impacts".
Despite the uncertainty, Opec kept its oil demand forecast for this year and next unchanged for the second month in a row. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d.
Opec's demand growth forecasts remain somewhat higher than those projected by the IEA and the US' EIA.
In terms of supply, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth forecast unchanged at 1mn b/d for both 2025 and 2026, with most of this growth seen coming from the US, Brazil and Canada.
Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — rose by 363,000 b/d to 41.011mn b/d in February, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026, unchanged from last month.
Eight members of the wider Opec+ alliance earlier this month agreed to start increasing crude output from April, citing "healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook".
