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Low Rhine water levels drive barge rates higher

  • Market: Freight, Oil products
  • 11/04/25

Barge loading restrictions have pushed prices for some products in southwest Germany four times higher than the national average, writes Amaar Khan

Product prices in southwest Germany have been pushed higher by a surge in barge prices because of lower water levels along the Rhine.

Freight costs from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) storage hub to Basel have risen fourfold to over €80/t ($89.50/t) since early March, according to barge broker Riverlake, while rates to Karlsruhe have more than tripled to about €55/t. Barges are generally used to transport products to inland Europe, or to import from ARA, and export to Switzerland. But low rainfall and higher temperatures have led to lower Rhine water levels, meaning that barges are not able to load at capacity and suppliers have to book more vessels to carry products.

The main point of congestion along the Rhine is at Kaub, close to where vessels discharge for Frankfurt, Riverlake data show. Water levels there are less than 1m high, meaning barges can only carry around 1,000t of product.

The higher barge freight rates are leading to a rise in prices for products in southwest Germany, which is typically supplied by barges along the Rhine. Prices in this region for heating oil, diesel and E5 gasoline have risen by €2.20-3.00/100 litres, compared with the national average.

Lower Rhine water levels are also limiting exports from Miro's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery in southwest Germany, leading to fears of production cuts. Lower refinery production in the region has added to barge demand. Shell ended crude refining at its 147,000 b/d Wesseling plant in Germany last month, although storage tanks will still be used after the closure. The tanks are now only serviceable by pipelines and barges, leading to higher barge demand.

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18/12/25

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Global trade shifts to add pressure to MRs

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

Viewpoint: Global trade shifts to add pressure to MRs

London, 17 December (Argus) — Lower US and west African gasoline demand is likely to keep European Medium Range (MR) tanker rates drifting in 2026. The US has become more reliant on domestic gasoline production, as weaker European refinery output made oil products from the region more expensive and uncompetitive. Freight rates on average in 2025 on the UK Continent to US Atlantic coast route stood at $22.46/t, compared with $26.38/t in the same period in 2024, as US gasoline imports on MRs have plunged since mid-2025, slumping to just 90,000 b/d in November from 349,000 b/d in May. Trade on the UK Continent to west Africa MR route has also waned, although it rallied briefly in late 2025 as a result of a now-scrapped Nigerian import tariff on gasoline and diesel and a seasonal increase in demand. Rates averaged $30.84/t in 2025, down from $33.67/t in the same period a year earlier. Nigeria's independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery cut its gasoline asking prices from 872 naira/l ($0.60/l) in early November to N828/l ($0.57/l) by 10 November. This will probably keep European imports uneconomical for Nigerian buyers. Dangote said it will supply 50mn litres/d (315,000 b/d) of gasoline in December and January to its domestic market, and 57mn l/d (359,100 b/d) from February, which could make imports from Europe largely redundant. For comparison, gasoline consumption in Nigeria was around 50.9mn l/d (320,670 b/d) in the 12 months to October. But sanctions on Russian oil firms Lukoil and Rosneft have weighed on diesel exports from India and Turkey, creating concerns about European supplies and turned participants' focus towards other exporters. This could provide support to the transatlantic rate, as participants will seek to replace Russian-related product with non-Russian, potentially importing more diesel from the US. US spat US president Donald Trump's build-up of military hardware in Caribbean waters could put 20pc of US Gulf coast refined product exports in shaky territory if tension between the US and Venezuela escalates into open conflict. Over the past 12 months, the Caribbean region — which includes buyers in Colombia, Dominican Republic, the US Virgin Islands, Jamaica and Saint Lucia as well as Central American countries such as Panama — has imported the majority of US Gulf coast refined products at an average of 643,300 b/d, Vortexa data show. These shipments were primarily diesel and gasoline, alongside smaller amounts of naphtha. Venezuela's naphtha imports from the US Gulf in May 2025, when the last of US sanction waivers expired, were 87,500 b/d, according to Vortexa. The product is used to dilute the country's extra-heavy crude. Only 15,000 b/d of naphtha flowed back to Venezuela when Chevron received a new waiver in August. Venezuelan buyers have turned to Russian supply from the Mediterranean carried on larger tankers, removing tonne-mile demand overall from the MR segment while lowering the amount of physical activity within the US Gulf coast spot market. Escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela could add war-risk premium insurance costs to Caribbean islands and Colombian trade, making Russian suppliers more competitive and potentially rerouting some of the 420,900 b/d the US Gulf coast exports to other destinations. This could make suppliers like Russia more competitive for this traditionally US Gulf coast-supplied region. If shipowners avoid the Caribbean region because of a conflict, this could increase competition for west coast South America-bound voyages and could boost Panama Canal transit if demand from Chile and Peru increases. This would raise the average auction cost for the Panamax locks for MRs, which typically carry refined products from the US Gulf coast. By Erika Tsirikou and Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US to blockade Venezuela oil flows: Trump

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

US to blockade Venezuela oil flows: Trump

Washington, 16 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump dramatically escalated the conflict with Venezuela Tuesday night by declaring a blockade of most Venezuelan seaborne oil shipments. Trump, in a social media post, also demanded — without providing any credible explanation — that Venezuela return "all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us." Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba already have stopped and cargoes to other destinations were grinding to a halt, following the 10 December seizure of a Cuba-bound Venezuelan oil tanker by the US Coast Guard. "I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela," Trump said. The tanker seized by the US was previously sanctioned for alleged involvement in transporting Iranian oil. More than 30 tankers could be within the reach of US naval forces positioned near Venezuela if Washington decides to continue seizing ships on its sanctions list. It is not clear what Trump meant by claiming that Caracas "stole" US-owned oil, land or assets, especially his reference to "land". Venezuela during the rule of former president Hugo Chavez nationalized assets of US and other western companies. The government of President Nicolas Maduro also faces claims of expropriation of mining and other western assets, and it has defaulted on sovereign debt obligations. All in all, almost $60bn worth of claims have been advanced against Caracas and state-owned PdV in US courts and international tribunals. A US federal court ordered the sale of PdV-owned US refiner Citgo to partially satisfy those claims. Trump's post concluded a day that featured his senior national security advisers briefing US lawmakers on the US military operations near Venezuela, without mentioning a possible escalation that likely requires congressional approval. The US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela since early September as part of an effort ostensibly aimed at stopping waterborne drug shipments. The US Navy has reported having destroyed 25 boats allegedly carrying drugs near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia since early September, killing 98 crew members. The most recent strikes, destroying three boats, took place on Monday. US lawmakers briefed by defense secretary Pete Hegseth and secretary of state Marco Rubio earlier on Tuesday said they were left wondering about the ultimate objectives of the US military operation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

Washington, 16 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US House of Representatives have overcome an initial obstacle to passing a marquee permitting overhaul bill after committing to vote on key amendments that would strip out potential benefits for offshore wind. Republicans in the House voted 215-209 in a vote on Tuesday to approve a rule that will dictate the terms of debate for votes later this week on the SPEED Act, which has become the focus of bipartisan efforts to fast-track the permitting process for pipelines, electric transmission lines, railroads and other infrastructure. A group of far-right conservatives initially voted against the rule, but most reversed course during the vote in exchange for revisions that have yet to be made public. The Tuesday vote was one of the last remaining hurdles to House passage of the SPEED Act, which is expected to pick up some Democratic votes when it comes up for a final vote later this week. The House majority typically is responsible for putting up all the votes for a rule, meaning it would only take a few Republicans to block bill debate. Republicans were uncertain they would have enough votes for the rule, as far-right conservatives such as US representative Andy Harris (R-Maryland) and others were lobbying for changes. On Monday, US representative August Pfluger (R-Texas) urged attendees of a conference to put as "much effort as you possibly can" into persuading wavering Republicans to support the permitting bill. Pfluger is the chair of the Republican Study Commission, a caucus that represents a majority of House Republicans. "Go talk to them and let them know how important this is," Pfluger said during an event organized by the think tank the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions. Ahead of the vote, an industry coalition on Tuesday released a joint letter offering "strong support" for the bill. Among the signatories were the American Petroleum Institute, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Association of American Railroads and the US LNG Association. President Donald Trump has yet to take an explicit position on the SPEED Act, but administration officials are optimistic permitting legislation could be enacted. "I think we are at a time where the chance of a real permitting reform bill is higher maybe than it's ever been," US energy secretary Chris Wright said at the event on Monday. The SPEED Act would focus on the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), a decades-old law that requires federal agencies to prepare environmental reviews of infrastructure projects. Pipeline companies and renewable energy developers alike blame the law for costly delays, both because of the time it takes for agencies to issue reviews and then the risks that permits will be thrown out because of lawsuits. The bill would narrow the scope of environmental reviews, aligning with a unanimous US Supreme Court ruling this summer. But the bill's most significant changes would make permits more durable. Even if a court found a NEPA review was flawed, the bill would keep permits intact during further analysis. And in a last-minute change, the bill would offer more permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals. That could protect pipeline permits such as the now-canceled Keystone XL pipeline, while also stopping Trump from halting more offshore wind projects. But the permit certainty language drew concern from far-right conservatives who oppose offshore wind. House Republicans in response agreed to vote on an amendment sponsored by Harris and others that would remove the "permit certainty" changes. Two other amendment votes also backed by Harris would stop expedited permitting treatment in the SPEED Act for offshore wind or any project that Trump has sought to block. Passage of those amendments could cost some Democratic support for the bill. Even if the bill passes, it is expected to be subject to major changes in the US Senate to attract enough support from Democrats to prevent a filibuster. Senate Democrats are hoping to insert language that would prevent what they describe as a "solar ban" being enforced by the Trump administration. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

Adds details on credits, transport commissioner comment in paragraphs 4-6 Brussels, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed a new 90pc cut in car fleet emissions by 2035, replacing the previously agreed 100pc target that would have effectively phased out the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from that date The plan would allow some new ICE vehicles to remain on sale beyond 2035, alongside plug-in hybrids, range extenders and mild hybrids, as well as electric and hydrogen cars. The remaining 10pc of emissions would need to be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels, according to the commission. The proposals need to be adopted by a majority in the European Parliament and among EU states. Automakers could also "bank and borrow" credits between 2030-32 to help meet the existing 2030 target of a 55pc cut from 2021 levels. Under the new proposals, manufacturers using these flexibilities would only need to achieve a 40pc fleet-average reduction, down from a previously planned 50pc. The commission indicated that credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) savings from e-fuels and biofuels can compensate up to 3pc of manufacturers' reference targets for 2035 and low-carbon steel credits can compensate for a further 7pc. Transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said the credit system will boost uptake of sustainable fuels. "This is a clear signal than other technologies than battery electric vehicles (BEV) can be put on the market after 2035," said Tzitzikostas. Expanded carbon-neutral criteria would allow sustainable biofuels to help meet the targets that currently require 0g/km from 2035. EU renewable ethanol group ePure said emissions from ethanol were 79pc lower than fossil fuels in 2024, in line with previous years. The European Biodiesel Board reported savings of 77-81pc for biodiesel, using the official fossil fuel comparator of 94g of CO2e/MJ. German MEP Peter Liese criticised the original ICE ban, but said industry problems stem from market shifts, not from Brussels. "The industry must stop shifting the blame for its own mistakes and for market developments, for example in China, onto Brussels," he said, adding that he will push for green steel recognition before 2035. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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