A potentially ineffective design of the long-delayed Integrated Farm and Land Management (IFLM) method developed by the Australian federal government might exclude thousands of landowners from the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market, curbing potential supply, industry participants have warned.
The IFLM method, the first in Australia to combine multiple activities that store carbon in soil and vegetation in a single method, could be potentially set with a "binary framework" classifying land types as either cleared or uncleared, following a recent update from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW).
But focusing on a single binary factor misses a broad range of other important influences, such as fire, over grazing, soil disturbance, feral animal impacts and climate events, co-chief executive of carbon project developer Climate Friendly, Skye Glenday, told Argus. It would particularly affect rangeland areas which cover around 70pc of Australia and include a large proportion of the Indigenous Estate, she added.
The cleared/uncleared definition overlooks large areas of degraded land in Australia and is "not helpful" in understanding why the land is in that condition, carbon developer Australian Integrated Carbon (Ai Carbon) chief executive Adam Townley told delegates this week at lobby group Carbon Market Institute (CMI)'s Carbon Farming Industry Forum in New South Wales.
A narrow definition of cleared and uncleared land effectively locks out large portions of the carbon market, decimating Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory, Townley said.
A CMI taskforce led by Glenday and Townley is recommending that the DCCEEW instead use the Vegetation Assets, States and Transitions (VAST) framework, which is already used by the Australian government to classify and report on the condition of native vegetation in its flagship State of Environment reports.
This condition-based approach would allow developers to establish projects in large areas of existing native vegetation that are significantly degraded because of Australia's land-use history, but which still have forests and woodlands, according to the taskforce. The projects would then be able to restore health and increase carbon storage within these areas, the taskforce claims.
Transition potential
The right framework could incentivise between two-thirds and three-quarters of the registered land projects in eligible methods to transition to the future IFLM method, according to Glenday. Eligible methods would start with the key human-induced regeneration (HIR) ACCU method, which expired on 30 September 2023, as well as the Environmental Plantings (EP) and soil carbon methods.
There are around 2,000 land-based projects registered, with about 400-500 in HIR, 50-100 in environmental plantings, and around 700 or more in soil. The number of projects that will transition will likely depend on the final transition rules and the package of activities each land manager wants to undertake, Glenday told Argus.
Carbon developer Regenco will explore the potential of migrating all its HIR projects into the IFLM method, managing director and chief executive Greg Noonan told Argus on the sidelines of the CMI event. Transitioning to the new method would allow existing projects to have much larger land areas accountable for carbon sequestration, compared with around just 20pc on average under the HIR method, although decisions would depend on the additional ACCU generation potential for each project to compensate for migrating costs, Noonan said.
Some developers said they will also consider transitioning their projects, but others expressed frustration and scepticism over the timeframe and final determination of the method, which was first proposed in 2019.
There is a clear urgency in discussing new ACCU methods under consideration to address a current shortfall in availability of land-based methods that is restricting industry investment and engagement, CMI chief executive John Connor said. But delegates welcomed the policy certainty provided by the re-election of the Labor government, he added.
"We're very hopeful that the IFLM method is legislated this year, and that's what we're working towards with all the stakeholders," Glenday said. But it would take at least up to nearly three years for the first IFLM projects to go from implementation to first ACCU issuances, she added.
ACCU generic, generic (No AD) and HIR spot prices ended the week to 9 May at A$35 ($22.50), dropping slightly from a week earlier as the market failed to receive a boost from the Labor party's re-election.
