Libyan crude returns to Asia after one-month hiatus

Market: Crude oil
20/05/25

Libyan crude is once again heading to Asia-Pacific after exports to the region came to a complete halt in April — the first such pause since August 2020, according to Argus tracking data.

The Suezmax Sea Sapphire departed Libya's Zueitina port on 15 May with around 1mn bl of light sweet crude bound for Thailand's Ko Sichang terminal, where it is expected to arrive on 26 June, according to Vortexa and Kpler.

It marks the first Libyan crude cargo to load for Asia-Pacific since March, and flows to the region averaged 76,000 b/d in the first three months of this year. Despite favourable arbitrage conditions in April — the Brent-Dubai EFS more than halved on the month to 30¢/bl in March when April-loading cargoes were trading — no Libyan crude was loaded for the region last month.

Buyers in Asia-Pacific appear to have opted for light sour Caspian CPC Blend instead. Shipments of the Caspian grade to Asia-Pacific hit a two-year high of 541,000 b/d in April, supported by weaker price differentials.

But with eastbound arbitrage shipments now less workable, most May and June-loading CPC Blend supplies are heading to Europe, according to traders. This may have prompted Asia-Pacific refiners to turn back to Libyan grades.

Thailand has been a regular buyer of Libyan crude, taking 16 cargoes in 2022 and nine in 2023, according to Argus tracking data. The Sea Sapphire is already the third Libyan cargo to load this year, matching the total for the whole of 2024.

A second Suezmax cargo of Libyan crude is scheduled to depart Marsa al-Hariga on 27 May and arrive at China's Ningbo port on 24 June, although the fixture remains unconfirmed.

Despite renewed interest from Asia-Pacific, Libya's overall crude exports are scheduled to fall by 9pc on the month in May to 1.13mn b/d across its 12 grades, according to provisional loading programmes.

By Ellanee Kruck

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