News
03/11/26
New York election unlikely to boost climate plans
Houston, 3 November (Argus) — New York governor Kathy Hochul (D) appears poised
to win another term in Tuesday's election, but persisting concerns over rising
energy prices and affordability are likely to keep any ambitious climate policy
goals, such as a statewide cap-and-invest program, in the backseat. Hochul is on
track to defeat her opponent, Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman (R), and
Democrats are likely to retain control of the state legislature. The latest poll
of just over 800 likely voters from the Siena Research Institute shows 54pc
support for the governor compared with just 40pc for Blakeman. When Hochul first
took office in 2021, she presided over the implementation of the state's
landmark 2019 climate law, which set ambitious goals for the state. Her
administration took steps to lessen New York's use of natural gas, promote clean
energy and develop a state-specific, economy-wide cap-and-invest program to
lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But Hochul's policy calculus has changed
significantly since. Rising electricity demand as a result of growing data
center capacity, federal cuts to clean energy incentives, a slew of tariffs as
well as the federal administration's relentless attacks on offshore wind have
raised concerns over the feasibility of enacting more aggressive policies.
Hochul's administration delayed the rollout of the cap-and-invest program,
leading to a lawsuit from environmental groups. A state court sided with the
groups last year and required the release of carbon market regulations by
February this year. But during budget negotiations with lawmakers earlier this
year, Hochul expressed doubts about New York's ability to meet its climate
goals, citing higher costs and a hostile federal administration. Those
negotiations culminated in a deal that delayed the state's interim emissions
goal and made moot the lower court order by pushing back the release of carbon
market regulations to 2028. New York also requires utilities to use resources
such as wind and solar for 70pc of their retail sales by 2030. But state
estimates suggest the target may not be achieved until 2036 at the earliest. For
his part, Blakeman has blamed Hochul for high energy costs and has promised to
"unleash" the state's fossil fuel reserves. But if Blakeman wins, he will likely
have to contend with a Democratic legislature. Hot ‘n cold Even continued
Democratic control of the legislature is likely to do little to ensure a return
to past climate plans. "There's so much emphasis on affordability that I don't
anticipate that [Hochul] is going to double down on climate targets per se for
New York state," said Carolyn Kissane, founding director of the SPS Global
Energy, Climate and Sustainability Lab at New York University. New York is also
battling President Donald Trump. A federal court recently sided with the federal
administration and struck down the state's climate "superfund" law, which had
sought to impose fees on oil, natural gas and coal companies for the
climate-related costs from their GHG emissions. The state is appealing the
ruling. In addition, stronger electricity demand has contributed to higher
costs. That, along with the volatility in global energy markets resulting from
the US-Iran war, has made it more difficult to decarbonize. "Whether it's solar
or wind or batteries, some of that is just going to go to meeting that new
demand rather than displacing any carbon intensive energy sources," said Noah
Kaufman, senior research scholar at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy.
New York has long had some of the highest electricity prices in the country, in
part because of the state's limited natural gas infrastructure, according to
Kaufman. Hochul has reversed her reluctance to promote natural gas in light of
grid reliability concerns . The governor revived a natural gas pipeline last
year and embraced an "all-of-the-above" approach for energy during her campaign
this year. Hochul will likely "take a more pragmatic" approach moving forward,
according to Kissane. "She'll try to protect the clean energy, new generation
that is coming on line, such as the offshore wind, and at the same time,
recognize that she really can't pull back on natural gas," she said. Hochul has
promoted new solar and battery storage , and funneled $2bn towards climate and
energy efficiency programs over the last two years. In addition, she was the
first governor to issue a one-year moratorium on data center development. Still,
Hochul will have to continue to balance affordability and policy goals during
her next term. It remains to be seen whether "there is appetite for some sort of
compromise" to support more infrastructure in the near term and gradually phase
out natural gas to enable the state to meet its emissions goals, Kaufman said.
By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at
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