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Latest market news

India’s IPL buys 40,000t of Australian DAP: update

  • Market: Fertilizers
  • 01/09/25

Adds details on pricing, adds counterbid in Hurl's latest tender

Indian fertilizer importer and producer IPL has bought 40,000t of Australian DAP at $836/t cfr for shipment in September.

Australian DAP is exempt from the 5pc import duty applied to other origins. The price $836/t cfr duty free would net to the high $790s/t cfr duty unpaid, assuming the full 5pc duty exemption is included.

Argus last assessed DAP at $809/t cfr India in line with the award price in fellow Indian importer Hurl's tender to buy 50,000t of DAP, which had closed on 18 August. Hurl received a lowest offer at $807.97/t cfr in its latest tender to buy another 50,000t of DAP, which closed on 26 August. Argus understands Hurl has countered at $799/t cfr, but no settlement has emerged.

The price for this latest sale to IPL probably nets back to the high $790s/t or low $800s/t fob Townsville on Australia's northeast coast.

By Tom Hampson

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05/12/25

Russia’s Uralchem agrees urea JV deal with Indian firms

Russia’s Uralchem agrees urea JV deal with Indian firms

Amsterdam, 5 December (Argus) — Russian fertilizer producer Uralchem has reached an agreement with India's RCF, NFL and IPL to set up a joint venture to build a 1.8mn-2mn t/yr urea plant in Russia. The plant is set to receive ammonia — urea's key feedstock — from Russian supplier Togliattiazot, while the Indian firms will finance the project until the plant begins commercial operation, according to Uralchem. No timeline has emerged for the project. The agreement comes during the 23rd India-Russia annual summit, with Russian president Vladimir Putin attending in-person in New Delhi. Russia's existing urea plants are owned and operated solely by Russian firms without any third-party involvement. But Indian fertilizer firms have rolled out the joint-venture model in other countries, notably in Oman with the 2.1mn t/yr granular urea Omifco plant, and more widely for the supply of phosphate-based fertilizers. Russia is consistently one of India's top suppliers of fertilizers and has typically been the second largest of urea to India after Oman in recent years. India remains strongly reliant on urea imports, despite its considerable domestic production, with Indian firms buying over 9mn t of urea through import tenders so far this year. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

04/12/25
News
04/12/25

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India’s urea stocks hold at above 7mn t

04/12/25
News
04/12/25

India’s urea stocks hold at above 7mn t

Amsterdam, 4 December (Argus) — Indian urea inventories stood at 7.1mn t as of the start of December, with the country's stocks increasing by a net 260,000t in November. Stocks have recovered and are largely in line with 2024 levels, with urea inventories at about 7.3mn t at the start of December last year. Solid domestic production of 2.62mn t combined with imports of 1.39mn t to outstrip strong local sales of 3.75mn t, the latest provisional data show. Sales of 3.75mn t, if confirmed, would be the second-highest on record for November, up from 3.58mn t in the same month last year. Urea imports have continued to flow strongly into India, with the country's suppliers buying 7.8mn t of urea under six tenders in June-November. The provisional data also show that Indian urea production is holding at the rate set in October, at about 2.6mn t, and levels are generally recovering to rates previously seen in the 2024-25 fertilizer year, having averaged 2.4mn t/month in April-September this year. India's urea inventories have increased by a net 1.34mn t since April, fuelled by a series of six import tenders in as many months, as the country has sought to push stocks up from as low as 3.5mn t at the end of August ( see chart ). Continued import demand from India was the key driver underpinning elevated international urea prices through the second half of the year. By Harry Minihan Net monthly change in Indian urea stocks t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indian DAP stocks end Nov above 2.1mn t

04/12/25
News
04/12/25

Indian DAP stocks end Nov above 2.1mn t

London, 4 December (Argus) — High offtake season continues to draw down Indian DAP inventories, but these have stayed above a comfortable threshold of 2mn t because of robust imports, and could end the year around that level. India started November with 2.31mn t of DAP and produced 363,000t over that month, provisional data show. Importers received 1.16mn t in November — the most for any month in over three years and well above the 562,000t November average in 2020-24 — as they were keen to avoid a repeat of the run-down that left stocks at just 1.1mn t at the start of 2025. Importers could afford to line up cargoes because the government is covering losses they would have made if selling at the maximum retail price and only receiving the nutrient-based subsidy. DAP sales rose to 1.54mn t last month, during peak application season, according to provisional data. This is slightly below November's 1.62mn t five-year average. Sales outpaced supply and DAP inventories dropped to 2.16mn t, Argus data show. But high imports prevented further drawdowns, and stocks opened December above the 1.43mn t level reported a year before. DAP offtake typically slows in December. Taken together, December's provisional opening stocks, 403,000t of imports according to Argus line up data, plus production and offtake figures in line with December's 2020-24 average could mean that India ends the year with 1.96mn t of DAP. Indian TSP inventories rose by 146,000t over November to start December at 541,000t, provisional data show. TSP imports hit a 2025 high of 232,000t, Argus line-up data show, while offtake totalled 86,000t. Another 109,000t is expected to arrive in December — the balance of the volume secured under a deal with Moroccan producer OCP that expires at the end of the year. By Adrien Seewald Indian DAP stocks vs price 000't, $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Adecoagro makes offer for remaining 50pc in Profertil

03/12/25
News
03/12/25

Adecoagro makes offer for remaining 50pc in Profertil

Sao Paulo, 3 December (Argus) — Argentinian agribusiness company Adecoagro submitted a binding offer to buy YPF's 50pc stake in Argentinian nitrogen producer Profertil. YPF's stake in Profertil is expected to be of around $600mn, Adecoagro said. YPF's board of directors needs to approve the proposal and that is expected to take place this month. Adecoagro would become the controlling shareholder of Profertil, holding 90pc of the total share capital. Argentinian grain cooperative ACA will hold the remaining 10pc. The proposal mirrors terms and conditions agreed between Adecoagro and North American fertilizer producer Nutrien. Nutrien agreed in September to sell its 50pc stake of Profertil to Adecoagro and ACA. Adecoagro will finance the transaction through a combination of existing cash reserves, an already committed long term credit facility and proceeds from share sales. Profertil is Argentina's leading fertilizer producer, supplying around 60pc of Argentina's urea consumption. It can produce 1.3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of urea and 790,000 t/yr of ammonia. It operates a distribution network at major ports and the Bahia Blanca nitrogen complex, with warehouses in Puerto General San Martin, San Nicolas, Necochea and Loma Paraguaya. The firm is also a large importer of other finished fertilizers, such as DAP, MAP and potash. Profertil has storage capacity for 150,000t of urea and 20,000t of ammonia at its Bahia Blanca site. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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