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Keystone XL reboot ‘warrants exploring’: Canada

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 09/10/25

Canada is open to exploring a revival of the defunct Keystone XL pipeline project to the US as respective leaders met this week to negotiate trade, according to a member of parliament (MP).

"Keystone XL is one of those projects that's been kicked around for a long time," said MP Corey Hogan (Liberal) on 8 October in response to reports that prime minister Mark Carney and US president Donald Trump discussed the project in Washington a day earlier.

"Certainly, it could be another one of the levers that increases North American energy security and so it certainly warrants exploring," said Hogan, who also serves as the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Tim Hodgson.

Such a project would appeal to Trump, who in February expressed his desire to restart construction of the line "NOW!" and promised easy approvals. But South Bow, the company that was to build the pipeline said at the time it has "moved on from Keystone XL".

While Carney works to strike new trade deals with the US, he has repeatedly said the old relationship with the US "is over" and the country needs to pivot to "reliable trade partners".

Hogan, like Carney, said there are still benefits that Canadian pipelines not aimed at the US could provide, including "our desire to diversify" by giving more access to more markets. Alberta premier Danielle Smith earlier this month said her government plans to propose a 1mn b/d pipeline to Canada's west coast.

Carney this week was hoping to hash out sectoral deals in steel and aluminum and in the energy sector which is arguably one of Canada's largest bargaining chips in the ongoing trade war with the US. The US imports about 4mn b/d of Canadian crude and another pipeline connecting the two markets could benefit both sides, but it is unclear how either government could lure a proponent back to the table.

The 830,000 b/d Keystone XL pipeline was proposed in 2008 and was intended to carry western Canadian crude from Hardisty, Alberta, to Steele City, Nebraska. The project became a political lightning rod and got caught up in regulatory red tape and court battles. It was rejected by former US president Barack Obama in 2015, revived by Trump during his first term, and then rejected again by former president Joe Biden in 2021.

Calgary-based TC Energy officially cancelled the project in June 2021, taking a $1.7bn (C$2.2bn) after-tax impairment and unsuccessfully suing the US government for $15bn in damages.

TC Energy in 2024 spun out its oil pipeline business, including the existing 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline system, to create South Bow.


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18/11/25

Cop: Presidency tackles key issues in first draft text

Cop: Presidency tackles key issues in first draft text

Belem, 18 November (Argus) — The Brazilian presidency of the UN Cop 30 summit has released a first draft text focused on the controversial issues that were left out of the conference's main agenda. The text represents a significant step forward in negotiations, but multiple options are offered for the main sticking points, suggesting that consensus is still lacking. The issues tackled include climate finance from developed to developing nations, unilateral trade measures, and moving away from fossil fuels. The presidency released a package of texts today, aiming to reach conclusion on several elements tomorrow. It included the first presidency draft text, following discussions on unilateral trade measures, climate finance, responses to countries' climate plans and emissions reporting — the four topics sitting outside the official conference agenda. The text sets out options — with various degrees of strength — on fossil fuels and climate finance, including options for no text at all. A menu of multiple options is normal at this stage of the talks. It is now up to delegations to find compromise, with another round of consultations scheduled today. One paragraph mentions the sharing of "domestic opportunities and success stories on the just, orderly and equitable transition towards low carbon solutions". There is also an option recalling the central paragraph of the global stocktake agreed in Dubai , which called for a move away from fossil fuels. This option suggests "convening" a high-level ministerial round table on different pathways and approaches "with a view to supporting countries to developed just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps, including to progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels and towards halting and reversing deforestation". The option echoes previous calls for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, made in the early days of Cop 30. The text also touches on a potential response to the latest round of countries' climate plans, and their alignment with the Paris Agreement. One option calls on countries to accelerate action on the Dubai call, which is reiterated in full in the text. Others mention a "Global Implementation Accelerator" report and a "Belem Roadmap to 1.5[°C]". The latter refers to the Paris Agreement's most ambitious goal of holding the global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and appears a softer option than a specific roadmap on moving away from fossil fuels. The texts are a "credible package capable of delivering meaningful Cop 30 outcomes" and represent "a substantial starting point", associate director at energy think-tank E3G Kaysie Brown said. A key sticking point in negotiations overall could be on finance for adaptation — adjusting to climate change where possible — according to director of international climate action at non-profit WRI David Waskow. Developing countries are calling for adaptation finance provided by developed nations to reach $120bn/yr by 2030 — up from a goal of $40bn this year. The draft text's elements on unilateral trade measures are "positive", as they invite more consideration, Waskow said. Developed countries seem opposed to going beyond the climate finance deal struck at Cop 29 , but are mostly supportive of language on shifting away from fossil fuels, global policy lead at civil society organisation Oil Change International Romain Ioualalen said. "Parties eyeing an outcome on fossil fuels will not succeed if they don't send strong signals on finance, adaptation, and the just transition", he said. By Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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DNO reshuffles N Sea assets to generate quick returns


18/11/25
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18/11/25

DNO reshuffles N Sea assets to generate quick returns

London, 18 November (Argus) — Norway-based upstream producer DNO has agreed to sell its stake in a redevelopment project in the Ekofisk region of the North Sea, while boosting its interest in Norway's Verdande oil and gas discovery and taking a share of a new exploration prospect. The company will divest its 7.6pc stake in the Ekofisk Previously Produced Fields project to Polish refiner Orlen. It will also acquire from Orlen a 20pc interest in a licence that contains the Cassio prospect, and an additional 0.8pc interest in the Verdande discovery. The deals are part of DNO's strategy to focus on short-cycle and less capital-intensive assets. "Our focus is on increasing near-term cash flow with less spend and more barrels more quickly," said DNO executive chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani. Verdande, located in the Norne area of the Norwegian Sea, is scheduled to come online before the end of 2025, while exploration drilling on Cassio in the North Sea is expected to start in late 2026. The Ekofisk redevelopment programme, on the other hand, is not due to start up until 2029. "We have chosen to deploy our share of the significant capital expenditure necessary [for the Ekofisk project] in ways that play to our strengths, namely exploration and rapid-fire development of our existing discoveries," said Mossavar-Rahmani. Cassio sits directly north of a DNO-operated licence containing the Othello discovery, which the company is considering developing as a tie-back to nearby infrastructure. The transactions follow DNO's $450mn deal to buy Norway's Sval Energi earlier this year , which made the North Sea the biggest contributor to the company's production. DNO's production in July-September increased by 50pc from a year earlier, helping to more than double its revenues. Profits, however, remained broadly flat on the year during the same period, owing to extra production costs in the North Sea. By Lauren Hadeed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Majors could get $600mn 4Q profit boost as margins jump


17/11/25
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17/11/25

Majors could get $600mn 4Q profit boost as margins jump

London, 17 November (Argus) — Current earnings estimates fail to take into account up to $600mn in additional refining profits across BP, Shell and TotalEnergies for the fourth quarter of this year thanks to continuing strong momentum in margins, according to Morgan Stanley. In research published on 16 November, the investment bank noted that the crack spread for diesel has rallied by more than 30pc over the past three weeks on concerns around a disruption to supplies from Russia, following the recent US sanctions imposed on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. Major buyers of Russian diesel include Turkey and Brazil, which Morgan Stanley sees potentially reducing their Russian diesel imports by a combined 150,000-200,000 b/d. It said that displaced diesel volumes are unlikely to be absorbed by China or India in the same way that they receive Russian crude as both countries are net exporters of diesel. Consequently, Morgan Stanley said there is potential for a $600mn increase in consensus post-tax earnings for Shell, BP and TotalEnergies in the fourth quarter, and a $200mn uplift for Repsol. The investment bank issued a caveat for these estimates for earnings increases by noting that companies' ability to capture improved refining margins varies by quarter. In the third quarter, BP and TotalEnergies were able to capture the period's improved margins due to lower maintenance activities at their refineries. At the same time, as Argus reported on 14 November , gasoline margins have also grown firmer due to the new sanctions that hit Lukoil's refineries in Europe as well as a scramble for cargoes in Nigeria ahead of incoming import tariffs. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Ministers left with mountain of work at Cop 30


17/11/25
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17/11/25

Cop: Ministers left with mountain of work at Cop 30

Belem, 17 November (Argus) — Ministers gathering for the second week of the UN Cop 30 climate summit are tasked with piecing together informal negotiations, including on a potential roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, responses to the lack of ambition in new climate plans, and other topics on the official agenda. Ministers will have to wrap up talks held in informal presidency consultations on four key topics — unilateral trade measures, climate finance obligations, emissions reporting and responses to climate plans — even though it remains unclear how a potential deal might look. The Brazilian Cop 30 presidency released a note on 17 November highlighting where parties continue to disagree. Gaps remain on finance, with some countries eyeing a work programme, while developed countries reaffirm that their obligations towards developing countries are covered under the new $300bn/yr finance goal agreed last year in Baku . There are also five options on the response to climate plans. One is to have an "annual consideration" under official negotiations of the report weighing country targets and actions, while another is to have an unnamed roadmap to accelerate implementation, international co-operation and investment to be published before Cop 31. Some negotiating groups, including the alliance of small island states (Aosis) and the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) are supporting the creation of a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap, while the "EU strongly welcomes the idea for a roadmap being discussed at Cop 30," energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said. Germany, Spain, Switzerland and the UK have also signalled support. But UK energy minister Ed Miliband pointed out the difficulty for some countries to move away from fossil fuels, including reliance on hydrocarbons for energy and jobs. Brazil and Colombia are also supporting the roadmap. But few other developing oil producers have spoken in favour of it, pointing to their dependence on hydrocarbons, the need for increased finance flows and a just transition. "It's acceptable that Nigeria is ready to transition, but transitioning now has to be consistent with a bunch of economic priorities," the director general of Nigeria's national council on climate change Omotenioye Majekodunmi said. Transitioning away from fossil fuels "must recognise the very strong differences in economic opportunities," she said. The Arab Group, which includes major oil producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE, wants to focus on the climate finance obligations of developed countries. The calls for a fossil fuel roadmap have yet to turn into something more tangible, according to the presidency. Brazilian environment minister Marina Silva said that she does not expect a decision on this at this Cop but welcomes the "beginning of the construction". Even if a roadmap fails to materialise in Belem, the pressure on fossil fuels is likely here to stay at climate summits. Official talks Ministers will also need to agree on official items this week, including adaptation, just transition and the UAE dialogue, which aims to advance the implementation of the global stocktake (GST). The GST agreed two years ago at Cop 28 in Dubai featured the call to transition away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, which has since received some pushback. To help them, the Brazilian presidency asked countries to finish all technical works on the agenda items by 18 November. Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni struck a positive note about negotiations at the end of the first week, saying several texts have already been approved, but conceded that a lot of work remained to be done. An informal text on the just transition work programme featured options with language on fossil fuels and the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies, but the paragraphs face opposition. The text recognises the role of transitional fuels — largely natural gas — while transition minerals have been included within the scope of the programme. "To get, you must give, and being honest, we need to be giving more," UN climate body UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. "The issues that may not be priorities for you are clearly issues and priorities for other nations," he added. By Lucas Parolin and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: 'Tangible' transition from fossil fuels needed


15/11/25
News
15/11/25

Cop: 'Tangible' transition from fossil fuels needed

Belem, 15 November (Argus) — Kazakhstan's deputy minister of natural resources Mansur Oshurbayev today called for a "tangible, not rhetorical" transition away from fossil fuels at a panel during the UN Cop 30 climate summit in northern Brazil. Nigerian and Fijian representatives at the same panel noted the need for "real alternatives" for industry and workers, and for the finance to support a transition, respectively. The topic of moving away from fossil fuels has drawn attention at Cop 30, with host country Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva calling for a roadmap to overcome dependence on them . But talks on the topic are moving slowly. Cop 30 chief strategy and alignment officer Tulio Andrade said earlier this week that they are not on the formal negotiation table. Almost 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28 in 2023. Some developing nations such as Colombia are eager for a phase-out plan at Cop 30, but others, especially in the Middle East and Africa, are concerned that it might hinder their development, according to delegates. A growing number of countries are discussing an option similar to the so-called Baku to Belem roadmap , which sets out paths to scale climate finance for developing countries to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035. A fossil fuel phase-out roadmap could look similar, a French delegation source said. Any reduction in fossil fuel production can only come "with real alternatives for firms, workers and regions", Oshurbayev said during the panel. "We must preserve and redeploy this human capital into activities that support the climate transition and do not directly compete with the coal and oil and [natural] gas operations", he added. The phase out of fossil fuels is a "difficult conversation", the director general of Nigeria's national council on climate change Omotenioye Majekodunmi said. Around 80pc of Nigeria's economy relies on fossil fuels and the country uses about 40GW of fossil-powered generators to generate electricity, he said. But there have been some strides at the national level, such as removing taxes on photovoltaic systems, solar panels and batteries, which will allow "small mom and pop shops and homes to adopt renewable energy options other than burning gasoline and diesel", he said. The country also removed long-standing fuel subsidies in 2023. The Netherlands' vice-minister of climate and energy Michel Heijdra called on countries to reduce fossil fuels subsidies earlier in the week during a Cop 30 high-level event. And fossil fuel subsidies throughout the world are mostly "underpriced, underused or unjust", the deputy chief of IMF's climate policy division Diego Mesa said. Nigeria is also considering creating an additional tax on oil products, Majekodunmi said, which would encourage the country to "reimagine alternative energy sources to drive its economy". The country will rely on natural gas as a "transition fuel" as it winds down over-dependence on fossil fuels, Majekodunmi said. Electrification can also help countries reduce fossil fuel usage, Oshurbayev said. Bold and joint action will be needed to mitigate the consequences of irreversible climate change, including to phase out fossil fuels, the permanent secretary of Fiji's environment and climate change ministry Sivendra Michael said. And any such action will require financing, he told Argus on the sidelines. Some countries, such as India and Saudi Arabia, are pressing for the climate finance obligations of developed countries to developing countries to be addressed at this summit. This is one of four contentious topics that did not make it onto the official agenda, but that countries are discussing in consultations overseen by the Cop presidency. "The ball is [in the] rich countries' court", Michael said. The technical phase of Cop 30 is now wrapping up, as countries' ministers are starting to arrive. The talks will shift into a political phase from 17 November. By Lucas Parolin and Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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