Exports of Iraq's Kirkuk crude from Turkey's Ceyhan port are set to rise in November, according to a newly surfaced loading programme seen by Argus.
Loadings of the medium sour grade are scheduled to average 250,000 b/d across 12 cargoes. This compares with around 181,000 b/d that was shipped from Ceyhan during 1-22 October, all bound for Mediterranean destinations, according to port agent Boutros.
Turkish state-owned refiner Tupras is expected to take 30,000 b/d of Kirkuk in November, traders said.
Iraqi oil minister Hayyan Abdulghani previously said 180,000–190,000 b/d of Kirkuk would be delivered to federal oil marketer Somo for export. Somo is now the sole marketer of the grade. About 50,000 b/d would be allocated to the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region for domestic use, with any surplus eligible for export, Abdulghani said.
Kirkuk crude resumed flowing through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline on 27 September after a deal between Iraq's federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government and international oil firms operating in Iraq's Kurdish region.
The pipeline previously carried 400,000–450,000 b/d of Kirkuk, but volumes are unlikely to return to pre-shutdown levels in the near term.
Most November-loading Kirkuk cargoes are likely already cleared at this stage of the trade cycle.
Argus last assessed Kirkuk at a $4.00/bl discount to North Sea Dated on a fob Ceyhan basis, including quality compensation — down $2.15/bl on the week, pressured by ample medium sour supply in the Mediterranean.
Kirkuk's values could rise in the December-loading cycle if tightening US sanctions on Russia's oil sector boost demand for medium sour alternatives, traders said.

