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You can unsubscribe from these updates at any time. We manage your personal data in accordance with our privacy policy.Nepalese importer and distributor Krishi Samagari (KSCL) has issued a tender to buy 30,000t of DAP, closing on 13 February.
Offers are to be given on cip basis for delivery to KSCL warehouses at Biratnagar, Birgunj and Bhairahawa, and are to be valid for 30 days after opening.
Fellow Nepalese importer and distributor Salt Trading (STCL) will close a tender to buy 25,000t of DAP this month. Technical offers are to be submitted by 9 January before financial offers are submitted by 16 January.
Sydney, 2 January (Argus) — Australia's urea imports in 2026 are likely to maintain the record levels of recent years, as forecasts for favourable weather conditions support strong cropping demand. But low affordability levels among growers could weigh on import demand. Australia's urea imports are likely to have reached 3.8mn t in 2025, about 5pc below 2024 but 15pc higher than in 2023, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and vessel tracking data from Kpler. Australian fertilizer importers told Argus they juggle a range of factors when deciding purchase volumes. Considerations include seasonal conditions, fertilizer affordability and crop outlooks, all of which differ across growing regions. Fertilizer affordability stays low Fertilizer affordability will be a key determinant of import demand. Global fertilizer affordability reached a three-year low in July 2025 but has recovered in recent months . Global nutrient affordability stood at 0.72 points in October, up from 0.69 in September and 0.61 in August, Argus data show. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. Australian granular urea was assessed at A$760-770/t fca Geelong on 18 December. Granular urea had reached A$900/t fca Geelong on 4 September, a 21pc increase from A$745/t fca Geelong on 3 January 2025. Fluctuations in the value of the Australian dollar will act as a buffer or hurdle to fertilizer affordability. The Australian dollar approached a 2025-high of $0.67 to the US dollar at the end of December, which has dampened fertilizer import costs. If the dollar should fall sharply, as happened in April when it dropped to $0.59, this could weigh on fertilizer affordability and temper imports. Growers' returns from their crops will be weighed down by global oversupply, given near record production levels of key crops such as wheat, feed alternatives and canola from global producers. The lack of any supply shock, major geopolitical risks and fading demand from major importers — particularly China — have led to subdued prices for wheat, squeezing farmer margins and potential returns from fertilizer applications. Fertilizer affordability has not eased enough for there to be a spike in demand but has improved enough to support steady imports from previous years. Average crop, weather forecasts Urea imports during the October-September marketing year tend to move in step with Australia's crop outlook (see graph). Favourable seasonal conditions and crop development will support fertilizer application to improve yields, and in turn, domestic fertilizer purchases. If current soil moisture levels are maintained until the autumn months of March-May, this could support crop area intentions and plantings and, in turn, urea imports. But long-term weather outlooks are unreliable and treated with caution by some importers, Argus understands. Planting conditions and crop allocation could be influenced by seasonal conditions in coming months. Most of Australia's cropping regions have an even chance of exceeding median rainfall in January-March 2026, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data show. Australia's crop winter crop outlook will partially depend on planting conditions during April-June. Urea application times differ from year to year based on rainfall patterns and the crop type, but most urea is applied from February to July for pre-planting and topdressing (see graph). South Australia's expected rainfall in January-March is less favourable, showing a less than 45pc chance of exceeding median rainfall in growing regions. Queensland and New South Wales growing regions have a 40-65pc chance of exceeding median rainfall, while Western Australia has a 45-55pc chance, BoM data show . The weather and soil moisture outlooks similarly suggest steady imports from previous years, but less chance of an increase from 2024 and 2025 levels. By Susannah Cornford and Edward Dunlop Australia urea and winter crop output '000 t Australia urea import seasonality t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
London, 31 December (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has set its January sulphur official selling price (OSP) for the Indian subcontinent at $520/t fob Ruwais, up by $25/t from its December OSP. Adnoc's January OSP implies a delivered price of $536-538/t cfr India, with the freight cost for a 40,000-45,000t shipment to the east coast of India last assessed at $16-18/t on 18 December. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sao Paulo, 30 December (Argus) — Road freight rates for grains and fertilizers may rise in 2026, as a record 2025-26 soybean crop boosts trucking demand in the first quarter, with many areas being harvested simultaneously. Brazil's grain freight rates remained high during 2025, with record soybean and corn production throughout the 2024-25 cycle, contributing to above-average freight rates compared to 2024. On the Sorriso-Miritituba stretch, freight rates averaged around 12pc above 2024 levels, while on the Rondonopolis-Santos route the increase was around 6pc. Freight rates are also likely to rise as fertilizers are transported for the second 2025-26 corn crop in May. In the export market, especially for soybeans, trade tensions between China and the US led the Asian country to turn to Brazilian oilseeds to meet demand. This extended Brazil's export window and resulted in constant demand for road transport services. For 2026, with Brazil likely to see record-high soybean output in the 2025-26 cycle, greater demand for transportation services in export corridors is expected, which may also result in higher freight rates. National supply company Conab projects that Brazil will produce 177.6mn metric tonnes (t) of soybeans in the 2025-26 cycle, an increase of almost 3.6pc compared to the previous season and the largest on record, according to the second official estimate for the cycle. Central-western Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest producer — could harvest 47.2mn t of soybeans in the 2025-26 cycle, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics (Imea). That would be 7.3pc behind 2024-25 production, but still the second largest in the state's history. Overall, the planting pace for the 2025-26 cycle proceeded without major problems. Planting registered a surge in progress throughout October. In the first four weeks of planting, planting reached 21.2pc of the nearly 13mn hectares (ha) expected for the cycle by 10 October. However, planting advanced by 54.9 percentage points across the month, totaling 76.1pc by 31 October. More than half of Mato Grosso's soybean area was planted during the same period. This raises concerns among market participants about high competition for transportation in export corridors and availability of vehicles, resulting in a logistical bottleneck, since the harvest of these areas must also occur at the same time. Climate issues remain on the radar. Accumulated rainfall in Mato Grosso during November reduced water stress and favored crop development. But rainfall remained irregular in other regions, a situation that could harm the state's productivity. This could also affect the corn planting window and its harvest in the second half of 2026. Although Brazil expects significant corn production, the domestic market has been absorbing most of the grain volume, exceeding exports. This should result in lower grain freight rates during this period, with a good portion being destined to meet the needs of Brazilian industry. Corn ethanol production in Brazil is expected to total 8.7bn litres (l) in the 2025-26 cycle, an increase of 11pc compared to the 7.8bn l produced in the previous cycle. Conab projects that 1t of corn can produce around 400l of ethanol, which means that approximately 21.8mn t of corn will be consumed by the ethanol industry, up from 18mn t a year prior. Fertilizer freight rates likely to rise Fertilizer transportation may also face logistical bottlenecks while moving inputs from ports inland due to the slow pace of fertilizer purchases, especially nitrogen fertilizers, for the second 2025-26 corn crop. The national land transport agency's (ANTT) minimum freight rate table also adds challenges to the logistics market. Since October, compliance with the minimum freight rate is monitored automatically, based on information entered in a mandatory electronic tax manifest (MDF-e) issued by the party that hires the truck driver, such as carriers. This gathers information from several invoices related to the cargo transport, facilitating tax inspection and logistics management. The system cross-checks data declared in the MDF-e with the official minimum freight rate table. If the reported value is below the legal limit, the system will identify the irregularity without requiring an additional report or inspection. The new automatic compliance system led to increases in fertilizers road freight rates of up to 70pc on some of the 31 routes monitored weekly by Argus . Subsequently, freight rates decreased slightly during the year, with some carriers disregarding the table and reducing profit margins in a bid to offer competitive prices. In addition, demand for vehicles with a greater number of axles has skyrocketed. Under the new regulations, seven-axle trucks are deemed less efficient and cost-effective than nine-axle trucks, the supply of which is more limited. Deliveries of nitrogen-based fertilizers, especially urea and ammonium sulphate (AS), will likely increase competition for vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, especially in January, when the supply of trucks is reduced due to drivers heading home for end-of-year festivities. Under these circumstances, higher fertilizer freight rates and higher costs for road logistics are expected. Brazilian importers have been exchanging urea for AS, which offered during most of 2025 a more attractive nitrogen price. However, twice the volume of AS is required compared to urea for an equivalent amount of nitrogen, as urea has 46pc nitrogen and AS has 21pc, which adds to logistical and operational costs. The availability of sufficient trucks has been a concern this year, hindering inland transport. ANTT's new electronic inspection system of minimum freight rate table, in effect since October, remains an important market driver and resulted in a significant increase in road logistics costs. But this matter is surrounded by legal uncertainty as a state court decision suspending fines in some regions has not curbed the growing number of carriers ignoring the minimum freight rate table. However, most carriers continue to comply to avoid penalties. Fertilizer companies remain reluctant to absorb the rate increases imposed by the table. In this context, the situation would only be resolved with a ruling from Brazil's Supreme Court on the constitutionality of the issue. But market participants believe it is unlikely that the issue will be resolved in 2026, as it is unpopular and affects an important sector for the country in a year of federal elections. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Ammonium sulfate prices appear primed to rise in the first half of 2026, supported by rising feedstock costs and tight global supply. Persistent supply constraints in Europe coupled with elevated feedstock costs are adding upward pressure on amsul prices that is unlikely to ease soon. Ammonia and sulfur, key inputs for amsul production, are hovering near multi-year highs. Buyers and sellers project the first-quarter Tampa sulfur contract to rise to $475-520/long tonne (lt) delivered, from $310/lt del, which could increase amsul production costs by roughly $40-50/st or more depending on the grade. Initial fourth-quarter domestic amsul offers in the US Corn Belt were about $20-25/st higher than the same period last year. Some producers, who held back on releasing offers, are now quoting prices roughly $40-50/st above last year's initial fourth-quarter offer levels. At the same time, ammonia prices are up about $90/t cfr year over year, and sulfur costs have surged by nearly $194/lt del. The increase in amsul offers sparked more buying as customers sought to secure product ahead of further price hikes anticipated in the first quarter of 2026. Major amsul producer IOC shut down operations due to surging feedstock costs but restarted production earlier this month. Similar pressures could affect domestic caprolactam producers as high sulfur costs ripple through the nylon value chain. Sulfuric acid is a critical input for caprolactam, and with margins already thin, further cost inflation could prompt producers to adjust operating rates. The US tariff exemptions on amsul , among most other fertilizers, announced in early November had little impact on prices because European producers faced tight granular supply and could not ramp up exports even though economics to the US have improved. The US imported around 1.2mn t of amsul in the 2024-25 fertilizer year, with around 48pc of total imports coming from the European Union, according to the US Census Bureau. Low caprolactam margins in the EU made amsul production less profitable, compounded by planned and unplanned outages, while Chinese material rapidly gained share in Europe's domestic market. However, carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) costs could slow Chinese imports into Europe, giving regional producers a chance to regain domestic market share. On ammonia, another key feedstock for certain amsul producers like IOC and Martin Resources in the US, the January Tampa contract settled at $585/t cfr. Most US ammonia prices eased after fall applications dwindled. Still, ammonia could remain tight due to production outages in the third and fourth quarters that left some producers struggling to meet commitments as demand for applications spike in the first half of November. Affordability remains front of mind as growers navigate high input costs and narrow crop margins from the past fertilizer season, prompting a cautious and risk-averse approach to fertilizer purchases. President Donald Trump's farmer aid package eased some financial pressures on growers and has supported more fertilizer spending, especially with the US Department of Agriculture projecting strong corn acreage for the coming season. Market participants attest that feedstock volatility and supply constraints continue to shape the amsul market going into 2026. As spring demand returns, offers are expected to incorporate higher production costs from elevated sulfur prices, paving the way for bullishness in the amsul market headed into the new year. By Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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