Opec has kept its global supply, demand and economic projections unchanged, despite major supply disruptions in the Mideast Gulf and extreme oil price volatility since the US-Iran war broke out on 28 February.
Opec makes no explicit mention of the war in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) today, but said geopolitical developments "warrant close monitoring" and that their effects, "if any," on economic growth may be too early to tell.
Iran's retaliation against US-Israeli airstrikes have effectively halted shipping through the strait of Hormuz ꟷ the main route for Mideast Gulf crude exports, which averaged about 14mn b/d in 2025.
While Opec does not forecast its own members' oil production, major Opec+ producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have started to shut in crude output because of limited storage and alternative export outlets.
The outages have led several countries to consider a co-ordinated emergency stock release. IEA chief executive Fatih Birol said on 10 March the supply constraints in the Middle East were creating "significant and growing risks for the market."
Supply fears have driven huge oil price swings in recent days, with crude futures surging to near $120/bl before dropping to around $90/bl. Opec said the structure of the market was being supported by "firm physical fundamentals alongside supply outages and concerns over potential supply disruptions amid geopolitical developments."
Opec forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.38mn b/d to 106.53mn b/d in 2026 and by 1.34mn b/d to 107.87mn b/d in 2027. It sees non-Opec supply growing by 630,000 b/d to 54.83mn b/d in 2026 and by 610,000 b/d to 55.44mn b/d in 2027.
