Iran's attack on Qatari LNG infrastructure has led to a spike in European TTF gas prices along the curve, as traders factor in expectations of a tight global market into 2027 and beyond.
Iranian attacks overnight damaged 17pc of Qatar's 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan LNG export infrastructure and this will take three to five years to repair, QatarEnergy's chief executive said on Thursday afternoon. The facility usually makes up about a fifth of global LNG production, and has been shut since 2 March because of the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz.
The summer 2026 price soared at the beginning of the trading day, opening at over €70/MWh, but was lower by mid-afternoon. Traders priced in confirmed damage to Ras Laffan and the possibility that the conflict could last all summer, reducing supply available for Europe to inject. Europe will also need to outbid Asia for spot LNG cargoes to fill storage.
The summer price remains above winter. But the front-winter price moved up more than the front-summer price when news broke of the likely duration of Ras Laffan repairs. The summer 2026-winter 2026-27 spread was +€2.37/MWh at 16:20 GMT, in from +€2.645/MWh on Wednesday and +€6.20/MWh at market opening. Traders are factoring in the possibility European storage sites will be at record-low levels at the beginning of winter 2026-27.
EU-wide stocks were at 28.8pc of capacity on Wednesday morning, according to GIE transparency platform data. This is the lowest for the day in four years. Stocks that day were lower in 2022, but Europe had more Russian pipeline gas supply in summer 2022, while governments stepped in to buy gas and fill storage.
The extent to which Europe can restock will depend on competition with Asia for marginal LNG cargoes. The arbitrage between Europe and Asia for spot US LNG was extremely volatile on Thursday, as traders assessed and reassessed implications for the global LNG balance.
Firms have booked only 64pc of German storage capacity — the EU's biggest, at 251TWh — for the 2026-27 storage year. And if the summer-winter spread remains inverted, there would be no commercial incentive to book more.
Assuming German stocks are at 64pc by the start of winter, this would be down from just under 83pc on 1 November last year. A 64pc fill would be insufficient to cover withdrawals on a par with a mild winter 2025-26.
Berlin seems determined to not intervene in the gas market again. Germany will wait to see whether the summer-winter spread normalises by April-May before considering any intervention to fill storage, economy and energy minister Katherina Reiche said on Tuesday.
Summer 2027 and winter 2027-28 prices have moved up less than nearer-term contracts. But the two rallied on news about Ras Laffan damage in early afternoon.
The spread for the 2027-28 storage year is also inverted, at +€2.525/MWh at 16:20 GMT, signalling expectations that storage will be heavily depleted by the end of winter 2026-27, with an even more pressing need for brisk injections in summer 2027.
