China is expected to keep ammonium sulphate (amsul) exports flowing for now, but quotas could still be introduced, according to market participants.
Amsul is the only nitrogen fertilizer still being shipped out of China, after restrictions were placed on exports of other products. Delegates at the Argus Asia Fertilizer conference in Bali said amsul exports are likely to continue.
The rationale for amsul possible curbs is far from obvious, as the product has limited domestic use, with China relying primarily on urea and ammonium chloride for nitrogen. Standard-grade amsul — largely produced as a by-product of caprolactam — remains a key revenue stream for producers as caprolactam costs continue to rise as the Middle East war continues.
Any disruption to exports would lead to storage constraints and increase the financial pressure on producers, market participants said.
China's has around 25mn t/yr of amsul capacity and exported just over 21mn t in 2025. Domestic caprolactam operating rates are currently at 80pc.
The government halted customs inspections for exports of NK fertilizers on 13 March and ammonium chloride and UAN on 25 March.
Urea is routinely subject to customs inspections. But urea exports are currently halted and it is unclear when regular shipments will resume.
