Egypt could ramp up corn imports from the Americas in the coming months to support an expanding domestic poultry sector and replace disrupted supply from Ukraine.
Egypt's corn imports in both the current 2025-26 and upcoming 2026-27 (October-September) marketing years are set to reach 13mn t/yr or more, well above the previous highs of 10.5mn t, according to the latest projections from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The jump reflects rising demand from the country's poultry sector, with domestic feed consumption estimated at 16.4mn t for the current marketing year and 17.4mn t for 2026-27, about 4mn t above the yearly average in 2020-24.
Current disruption to corn exports from Ukraine — in past years neck and neck with Brazil as Egypt's top supplier — come at a time when Egypt's importers could step up activity after a slowdown in arrivals over the past three months. Egypt's monthly imports peaked this current marketing year in March at 1.4mn t, before slowing progressively in the past three months to just 241,000t in June, Kpler vessel-tracking data show, as lower poultry prices cut import margins. This brought cumulative corn arrivals so far in 2025-26 to around 8mn t as of end-June, which would require the pace of imports to accelerate back to upwards of 1mn t/month if Egypt's importers are to keep pace with USDA-projected demand.
Slower exports from Ukraine could last for some months, even if exports via the country's Black Sea ports resume. Silos are increasingly full of winter-harvested wheat, barley and rapeseed crop, as well as 5.4mn t of old-crop corn, Argus estimates. Once the new-crop corn harvest arrives in two months' time, Ukrainian producers may resort to leaving some corn unharvested in the fields until spring 2027, potentially leading to quality issues in what is otherwise expected to be Ukraine's largest corn crop in the past five years.
Egypt well-supplied with Brazil and Argentina
A lack of exportable supply from Ukraine could cement Brazil as Egypt's top supplier, but may also open the door to increased shipments from Argentina and the US.
Brazilian corn has already accounted for well over half of Egypt's imports in October-June of the current marketing year, Kpler data show. This continues the trend from 2024-25, when Brazilian exports to Egypt doubled on the year to make up almost two-thirds of the Brazilian import market, according to customs data, significantly outpacing shipments from the next largest suppliers in Ukraine and Argentina.
But Brazil's corn export sales have stalled recently as fob prices rise. The price of Brazilian corn fob Santos/Tubarao ended the week to 24 July at a three-month high, at a time when prices would usually be under seasonal pressure from the incoming second corn crop. Fob sellers have raised basis to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September corn futures contract as exporters compete with domestic demand from the ethanol sector, accelerating the effect of climbing prices on the underlying futures contract.
In the meantime, Argentinian corn could regain its share of the Egyptian market after a decline in shipments in the past four marketing years. Vessel-tracking data show arrivals of Argentinian corn in Egypt in the first nine months of 2025-26 at 1.8mn t, already surpassing total receipts from Argentina in any marketing year since 2020-21. Argentinian farmers still hold large stocks of corn, and both exporters and farmers have sped up sales this month as CBOT futures rise. This has kept export prices competitive, at least in basis terms to Chicago futures, in contrast to Brazil. Sellers last week offered Argentinian corn at a 80¢/bu premium to the September CBOT corn contract, compared with a 109-135¢/bu premium on offer from Brazil.
Looking ahead to the end of Argentina's peak export season, strong Egyptian demand could also pave the way for increased corn imports from the US, until now a relatively small supplier in Egypt, once US new-crop arrives from September. This could leave Egyptian importers increasingly vulnerable to volatile prices in the global market if exports from Ukraine remain limited. The December contract on Chicago-listed corn futures is currently trading at a historical discount to Euronext November corn futures, leaving some way for the US contract to rise if current concerns over drought in the western corn belt prove damaging to US harvest prospects.
