US organic corn buyers are monitoring yields for the ongoing harvest because carryover stocks are absent and feed demand has reached record levels, making future pricing highly sensitive to yields.
Argus forecasted in July that the 2026-27 marketing year (September-August) began without any carryover stocks of organic corn after strong demand depleted the surplus in 2025-26.
Because of the lack of old crop supplies, US consumers are eagerly waiting for the organic corn harvest to reach key production states in the corn belt and high plains. Domestic production is crucial, supplying over 80pc of the US market. However, key production states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska are experiencing worse drought conditions than last year, which could limit yields.
Ohio and Indiana have suffered from excess moisture that also could reduce yields. Early harvests in the southeast US produced mixed results, with strong yields in Georgia and drought damage in North Carolina.
Beginning supplies are forecast at 58.3mn bushels, up by just 0.6pc from a year earlier. Feed demand grew by 9pc in 2025-26 and is forecast to grow by another 5.7pc in 2026-27, driven by record organic layer flocks, strong US broiler and turkey slaughter, and further expansion. A new feed mill in southern Michigan will further increase demand.
Farmers are reluctant to sell more of their crop, anticipating price increases and wanting to ensure they meet contract yields. Low yields could threaten future demand, as higher prices may limit growth. Imports offer limited relief, with volumes forecast to rise by only 6pc in 2026-27. Supply from Turkey, Argentina, and Romania faces geopolitical and other risks and tariffs, keeping prices high.
Low yields will also threaten future demand, as strong pricing for organic corn could limit further growth or lead to lower demand if feed costs continue to erode margins. If yields are above expectations, farmers may sell more than expected to get ahead of any drops in price.
Organic corn prices are expected to be tight even with an average harvest, with Argus forecasting the 2026-27 marketing year ending without any stocks to carry over into 2027-28.
Imports offer limited relief
Further increases in US organic corn imports could help replace some lost domestic production, but volumes will be limited and higher import values and transportation costs will support US pricing.
Imports jumped by 59pc in 2025-26, primarily because of stronger imports from Turkey, but Argus forecasts only a further 6pc increase in 2026-27. Each additional percentage point increase translates to an additional 140,000 bushels, but a 1 percentage point loss in yields means a 581,000 bushel drop in production.
Many suppliers to the US will have limited additional supplies to ship. The Argentinian organic corn harvest showed strong yields after heavy rains during the growing season, but a drop in planted acres cut production. Supply from Turkey and the wider Black Sea will face potential disruptions from the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which pushed up insurance and freight costs to move grain out of the region. Western Europe expects a lower corn harvest, so buyers in Europe may compete with US buyers for some corn supplies.
Turkish corn imports could rise further if the US harvest comes in below expectations, but any additional imports from the region would face strong cost pressure and keep US prices higher.
Argentina, Turkey, and Romania all pay tariffs to export organic corn to the US, which further increases the cost of importing. Further tariff action from the US government against organic corn suppliers, including Canada, would further support organic corn values.
