Botswana sees the biggest potential for carbon market activities in energy generation projects, followed by nature-based removals, the country's government said in its latest climate plan submitted to UN climate arm the UNFCCC.
Botswana in its third climate plan, or nationally determined contribution (NDC 3.0), ranks the potential of energy generation for carbon market activities as "largest", followed by nature-based removals with a "significant" potential.
Further down the list, the activities of bushfire management and refrigerant transitions are considered to have a "moderate" potential. A "lower volume" is expected for energy efficiency activities.
The list of priority activities derives from Botswana's draft carbon market framework, which is under development and expected to be finalised soon, the government said in its NDC 3.0. Once adopted, the carbon market framework will constitute the country's official national guidance for Article 6 participation. As such, the framework will act as a guide for differentiating between the cheaper mitigation options that will be used domestically for Botswana's own mitigation obligations, and the higher-cost activities, the mitigation outcome of which will be exported as internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (Itmos) under Article 6.
Botswana's draft carbon market framework also paired the respective activity with the best-suited mechanism: for energy generation, the framework sees both the less regulated, overarching Article 6.2 framework and the emerging regulated Paris agreement crediting mechanism (Pacm) under Article 6.4 of the Paris agreement, as suitable.
For nature-based removals, Pacm is viewed as the preferred standard, but the government noted the "methodology challenges". To comply with the non-permanence obligations under Pacm, Botswana will require buffer reserves, defined reversal liability and a host-country risk-management framework, together with permanence and integrity safeguards, the government said.
For energy efficiency, Botswana prefers Pacm, but says that baseline data is needed before activities can start. Regarding bushfire management, no preferred mechanism has yet been decided on as methodologies are still under development.
For the refrigerant transitions, Botswana flags the Cooling Programme for Southern Africa (CooPSA) organised by the German government's international climate action initiative IKI, which aims to develop a "financing instrument" based on a Pacm compatible methodology.
Botswana in its NDC 3.0 also noted that Article 6.2 is valued for its "flexibility" and for the bilateral deals it enables, though its integrity depends on national governance. Pacm, by contrast, offers slower UN-supervised approval but stronger oversight, the government said. It added that Article 6.2 was "well-suited" for pilot carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, while Pacm should work well with standardised industrial mitigation.
Regarding removals activities, Botswana underlined the importance of not overselling the low-cost mitigation the country needs for its own unconditional target.
Botswana's NDC 3.0 put the finance need to meet its unconditional target — for activities not depending on external finance — at US$224mn for mitigation activities for the 2026-35 period, while the conditional finance requirement for mitigation was put at $1.5bn for the period.
In its NDC 2.0, submitted in December 2024, Botswana had put its conditional finance requirement for mitigation activities for the period up to 2030 at $2.7bn, of which it has so far managed to secure about $0.05bn.
