Fossil CO2 emissions projected to fall in 2026: Report

Market: Emissions
10/11/26

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4pc in 2026, as renewable power capacity grows and conflict constrains oil supply, a team of scientists said today in the Global Carbon Budget 2026 report.

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to stand at 38.2bn t this year, driven by a 1.9pc projected decline in carbon emissions from oil, the report found. This is "likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict", it said. Carbon emissions from natural gas were projected to fall by 0.3pc this year, while those from coal are projected to rise by 0.6pc, the report found. Energy demand globally continues to increase, but two thirds of this is met by solar and wind power and electric vehicles (EV), the report said.

But although renewables and EVs "are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline", director of the university of Exeter's Global Carbon Budget Office Pierre Friedlingstein said.

"A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change", research professor at the Cicero Center for International Climate Research Glen Peters said.

Total carbon emissions — from fossil fuel consumption and emissions from land use change — are projected at 43.3bn t in 2026, up by 1.2pc on the year as CO2 emissions from land use change are projected to increase, the report said. Total CO2 emissions have in the past decade grown by 0.3pc per year on average, more slowly than the previous decade's 1.7pc annually.

The remaining carbon budget, which is the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before global warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, stands at 150bn t. This is equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates, the report found. The Paris climate agreement seeks to curb the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit.

The Global Carbon Budget report is produced annually by an international team of more than 140 scientists.

By Georgia Gratton

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09/11/26

US Senate starts debate on permitting bill: Update

Adds details on US Senate vote Washington, 9 November (Argus) — A bipartisan permitting bill that would overhaul government approvals of energy projects has cleared a major procedural hurdle in the US Senate, despite a last-minute threat from President Donald Trump to continue blocking wind projects if the bill passes. The Senate on Monday voted 73-25 to start debate on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), easily surpassing a 60-vote threshold needed to avoid a filibuster. Senate Republicans and Democrats who spent the last year in negotiations said the bill will eventually bring down energy prices for consumers by making it easier to build pipelines, install electric transmission lines and develop clean energy projects alike. But Trump injected last-minute uncertainty into the procedural vote by saying he plans to keep blocking wind projects, even if the bill becomes law. Democrats had spent the last month in negotiations with the White House seeking assurances that if they approved BAAJA, the administration would restart regular permitting of wind and solar projects that had been blocked. "The bill hasn't been fully negotiated," Trump told reporters. "I will not approve wind turbines because wind turbines are a major loser." Asked for comment, the White House said Trump remained fully in support of BAAJA and reiterated his support for the bill in the press briefing. BAAJA would fast-track environmental reviews of infrastructure and make it harder for permits of fully authorized projects to be revoked, either in response to a lawsuit or because of a change in administrations. The bill also includes language to deter the White House from banning full categories of projects, such as wind farms or LNG export terminals, while making it easier to approve electric transmission lines. But some Democrats say they cannot support the bill as written because they worry Trump will use it to accelerate fossil fuel development, while continuing to slow-walk approvals of wind and solar projects. And many environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council, say BAAJA goes too far by shielding permits from meaningful review, even when there are flagrant errors. Former US vice president Al Gore, who is influential on climate policy, on Monday said Democrats should take up permitting legislation next year when they control Congress. "Now is not the time to give the Trump administration freer rein to double down on fossil fuels," Gore wrote on social media. Even so, the bill has been picking up major endorsements that make it more likely to pass, including in the Republican-led US House of Representatives where passage could be most difficult. On Monday, electric utility trade group the Edison Electric Institute — which in 2024 helped block a smaller permitting bill — gave its formal endorsement. Far-right conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus the same day said they wanted to pass "robust permitting bill" by the end of the year, although they did not specifically endorse BAAJA. The White House has started advancing clean energy projects as part of negotiations on the bill. The US Department of Defense on Monday advanced another 10 onshore wind projects that were previously under review, the White House said, including four projects in Texas and two projects in Illinois. "The Trump administration has walked the walk. Now it's time for the Senate to stop talking and deliver!" a White House official said. "After weeks of good-faith negotiations and actions from the White House, the passage of BAAJA now falls entirely on the Senate." Now that the Senate has voted to begin debate on BAAJA, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee ranking member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) said he expects the US Interior Department will have "something to say" related to permitting of energy projects. As many as 250 projects that are backed up at the Department of Defense will "begin to move" as part of the deal to return to normal permitting, Whitehouse said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Botswana looks at A6.2, A6.4 carbon revenues

09/11/26

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09/11/26

Botswana looks at A6.2, A6.4 carbon revenues

London, 9 November (Argus) — Botswana sees the biggest potential for carbon market activities in energy generation projects, followed by nature-based removals, the country's government said in its latest climate plan submitted to UN climate arm the UNFCCC. Botswana in its third climate plan, or nationally determined contribution (NDC 3.0), ranks the potential of energy generation for carbon market activities as "largest", followed by nature-based removals with a "significant" potential. Further down the list, the activities of bushfire management and refrigerant transitions are considered to have a "moderate" potential. A "lower volume" is expected for energy efficiency activities. The list of priority activities derives from Botswana's draft carbon market framework, which is under development and expected to be finalised soon, the government said in its NDC 3.0. Once adopted, the carbon market framework will constitute the country's official national guidance for Article 6 participation. As such, the framework will act as a guide for differentiating between the cheaper mitigation options that will be used domestically for Botswana's own mitigation obligations, and the higher-cost activities, the mitigation outcome of which will be exported as internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (Itmos) under Article 6. Botswana's draft carbon market framework also paired the respective activity with the best-suited mechanism: for energy generation, the framework sees both the less regulated, overarching Article 6.2 framework and the emerging regulated Paris agreement crediting mechanism (Pacm) under Article 6.4 of the Paris agreement, as suitable. For nature-based removals, Pacm is viewed as the preferred standard, but the government noted the "methodology challenges". To comply with the non-permanence obligations under Pacm, Botswana will require buffer reserves, defined reversal liability and a host-country risk-management framework, together with permanence and integrity safeguards, the government said. For energy efficiency, Botswana prefers Pacm, but says that baseline data is needed before activities can start. Regarding bushfire management, no preferred mechanism has yet been decided on as methodologies are still under development. For the refrigerant transitions, Botswana flags the Cooling Programme for Southern Africa (CooPSA) organised by the German government's international climate action initiative IKI, which aims to develop a "financing instrument" based on a Pacm compatible methodology. Botswana in its NDC 3.0 also noted that Article 6.2 is valued for its "flexibility" and for the bilateral deals it enables, though its integrity depends on national governance. Pacm, by contrast, offers slower UN-supervised approval but stronger oversight, the government said. It added that Article 6.2 was "well-suited" for pilot carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, while Pacm should work well with standardised industrial mitigation. Regarding removals activities, Botswana underlined the importance of not overselling the low-cost mitigation the country needs for its own unconditional target. Botswana's NDC 3.0 put the finance need to meet its unconditional target — for activities not depending on external finance — at US$224mn for mitigation activities for the 2026-35 period, while the conditional finance requirement for mitigation was put at $1.5bn for the period. In its NDC 2.0, submitted in December 2024, Botswana had put its conditional finance requirement for mitigation activities for the period up to 2030 at $2.7bn, of which it has so far managed to secure about $0.05bn. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Tricky trade, finance items left off final agenda

09/11/26

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09/11/26

Cop: Tricky trade, finance items left off final agenda

Antalya, 9 November (Argus) — Contentious items on trade and tripling finance for adaptation were left out of the UN Cop 31 agenda adopted today, but countries reached a compromise on the addition of a specific climate finance work programme so negotiations could start swiftly. The climate finance work programme will focus on the provision of climate finance by developed to developing nations and could be the space under which countries discuss adaptation finance in official negotiations at Cop 31. Adaptation refers to adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible. The agenda items on trade and finance had been put forward by African countries. The Brazilian presidency of last year's Cop 30 released yesterday a report setting out how climate finance for developing countries could be ramped up to between $1.27 trillion and $1.41 trillion annually by 2035. Countries agreed at Cop 29 in 2024 "to enable the scaling up of financing" for developing countries, from all public and private sources, to at least $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035. The swift adoption of the agenda is a "good start" to the conference, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands Tina Stege said today. Stege is one of three officials picked by Pacific Ocean nations to serve as "champions" for the region's priorities in Antalya. "We really need to take that momentum forward", she said. Pacific island nations want Antalya to result in a "pathway back" to the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Climate agreement. The Paris accord seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. The UN warned in September that an overshoot of the 1.5°C target is inevitable. "If the world allows 1.5[°C] to slip permanently out of reach, the consequences for the Pacific will be severe", Stege said. To keep the overshoot temporary, countries need to come up with more ambitious mitigation commitments, accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, scale up clean energy and deliver "predictable and accessible" climate finance, according to Stege. "We all need to double down and make sure that we're leaving this Cop with a credible response to the overshoot", Stege said. Some parties at Cop 31 eye actions on electrification — through the Turkish presidency electrification pledge — and on methane, which are both discussed under the summit's informal action agenda, as part of the response to the overshoot. "At this Cop, nations face a choice: electric or shock", UN climate body UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. "Rewire the global economy for the electric age, or accept ongoing fossil fuel cost pain for families, firms, and governments, and of course that includes health systems," he added. A draft cover decision for Cop 31 may be circulated as early as tomorrow, observers said. The cover decision is an overarching text led by the event's presidency, and can address themes that are not part of official negotiations. It still needs to be adopted by consensus. Australian energy minister Chris Bowen, who leads the negotiations at Cop 31, said last month that the cover decision could recognise climate resilience and adaptation, as well as the "urgent need for climate action, support and international co-operation" in the face of overshooting the 1.5°C target. Cop 31 has a dual presidency — Turkey is presiding over the summit while Australia leads negotiations By Georgia Gratton and Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU pushes 'corrective' CO2 cuts on nine countries

09/11/26

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09/11/26

EU pushes 'corrective' CO2 cuts on nine countries

Brussels, 9 November (Argus) — The European Commission wants nine member states, including Germany, Italy and climate frontrunner Sweden, to submit "corrective" action plans to accelerate emissions cuts in the domestic transport, buildings, agriculture and waste sectors. Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta and Sweden are not making "sufficient" progress towards their 2030 targets under the effort-sharing regulation (ESR), the commission said. Even after accounting for additional planned measures, Germany is projected to miss its ESR target by 14 percentage points, Ireland by 19 points and Malta by 49 points. Sweden, often viewed as a climate frontrunner, is expected to fall 5 points short of its 2030 ESR target. Bulgaria and Greece, by contrast, have already exceeded their ESR targets by 26 points and 21 points, respectively. The commission projects that EU-wide ESR emissions will be 38.5pc below 2005 levels by 2030, slightly short of the bloc's 40pc sectoral reduction target. Climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will write to the nine member states, giving them three months to submit corrective action plans, EU climate spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said. "We will then, in the following four months, give them feedback," Itkonen said, adding that the commission does not "lead" with infringement proceedings. The European Environment Agency (EEA) also said today that the EU remains on track to meet its 2030 climate targets, despite a slower pace of reductions in net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Preliminary figures indicate that net GHG emissions fell by 1.6pc in 2025. With "full and timely" implementation of additional planned measures, the EEA projects that the bloc will achieve a net 54pc reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, just short of its legally binding 55pc target. But the EEA warned that net emissions removals from land, soils and forests remain a major challenge. In the land use, land-use change and forestry sector, the agency identified a "significant" gap of 67mn-92mn t CO2e to the EU's 2030 target of 310mn t CO2e of net annual removals. The agency pointed to a long-term decline in net removals, driven by increased timber harvesting, slower forest growth and the impacts of climate change on the ability of forests to absorb carbon. Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump faces new limits after midterms blowout

09/11/26

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09/11/26

Trump faces new limits after midterms blowout

Washington, 9 November (Argus) — US Democratic congressional leaders are promising to use their strong victory in the midterm elections on 3 November to seek new restraints against President Donald Trump, while leaving an opening for legislative deals that would lower consumer prices for energy and other goods. Democrats on Capitol Hill have felt largely powerless for nearly two years as Trump and his administration unilaterally cut staffing at federal agencies, stymied the development of clean energy projects, pivoted close to Moscow's position in the Ukraine war and launched military strikes against Venezuela and Iran. Democratic leaders say those dynamics will change with their midterm wins, as they try to bring the kind of accountability they say has been nearly non-existent with Republicans in control of Congress. Democrats are on track to hold at least 54 seats in the 100-member Senate and 253 seats in the 435 member House, although their majorities in both chambers are likely to expand once counting concludes. "Whenever Trump defies the will of the American people or the law, we will launch investigations, take him to court, and entangle him in legislative razor wire," the top-ranking Senate Democrat, Chuck Schumer, said on 4 November. The party was able to leverage voter anger over the Iran war and inflation to achieve wins in states where Trump and the Republican party candidates prevailed for decades, including Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio. Democrats say although they will look into concerns about corruption and executive overreach, they will focus their new congressional powers on improving affordability. "The American people don't want us to get even," said House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, who almost certainly will become the next House speaker. "They want us to get things done on their behalf because life is way too expensive." Midterm elections last resulted in losses of such magnitude for a president's party under George W Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010, prompting the presidents at the time to look for ways to co-operate with the opposition-controlled Congress. Few expect Trump to follow a similar course. Co-operation and oversight Newly elected Democrats say they want to look at areas of compromise that could give relief to consumers struggling with high fuel prices. Texas' Democratic senator-elect James Talarico said he supported Trump's proposal to suspend federal excise taxes on gasoline and diesel. "If we suspend the federal gas tax, we could drop the price of gas by 18¢/USG immediately," Talarico said on 4 November. The most immediate outcome from the midterms could be felt when the Senate reconvenes this week to vote on whether to advance the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, a bill that aims to speed permitting for oil and gas, renewables and electric transmission. The Democratic outperformance is likely to "embolden" those who believe the bill gives too many concessions to oil and gas, investment bank TD Cowen wrote in a note to clients that cut the odds of the bill passing to 25pc, down from 40pc. Political analysts shared that sentiment. "It's an uphill road at this point, given the fact that there's the possibility of just getting a better deal in January," law firm Bracewell attorney Joseph Brazauskas said. Even if the bipartisan permitting bill clears the Senate, it still must pass the House, where Republicans have a narrow majority. Far-right Republicans want to use the lame duck session to "lock in" conservative wins and stop "the Green New Scam", House Republicans' Freedom Caucus chairman Andy Harris said. Meanwhile, US representative Jared Huffman, a Democrat who is likely to lead the House Natural Resources Committee next year, said there should be a hearing before "jamming through a deeply flawed" permitting bill. Democrats will only have so much power to constrain Trump, whose aggressive claims of executive power have found a receptive audience in the US Supreme Court, where conservatives hold a 6-3 majority. Even though Democrats could rein in the administration using spending bills, they still need Republican support on those bills to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. Trump could also block any bills that he believes are too restrictive, which would create the risk of a government shutdown. "I'll get along probably with the Democrats, unless they want to be destructive, but I have the power of the veto if we don't like what they're doing," Trump told reporters on 4 November. Democrats next year will gain broad powers to launch investigations into the administration, including the ability to subpoena federal agencies and require administration officials to testify. Democrats are likely to push for details on foreign investment deals that Trump has negotiated, along with agreements related to the sale of Venezuelan crude and leasing rights. Senators have sought answers on hundreds of millions of dollars in tax savings the administration has given to LNG companies. "Subpoenas," the Senate Finance Committee's ranking Democrat Ron Wyden said in a social media post as the scale of his party's victory became clear. The Iran blame game Republicans are blaming the crushing midterm losses partly on the war in Iran, which angered voters who trusted Trump's anti-war campaign promises but ended up paying far more for gasoline, diesel and fertilizer. US vice-president JD Vance, who is considering a presidential run in 2028, said on 4 November that Republicans lost because of the war. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so," Vance wrote on social media. Trump acknowledged that Vance's explanation for Republican losses was "largely true" because the war drove up gasoline prices. But Trump defended the decision to go to war. "If I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long-term it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon." The scale of the electoral outcome may have upended any plans from the Trump administration to resume hostilities with Iran soon after the midterms. The US military carried out a limited air strike on Iran's Qeshm island on 2 November, the night before the election day. But Tehran has held its fire, and crude futures benchmarks fell in anticipation that efforts to end the US-Iran war will gather momentum in light of a sweeping victory by Democrats. The outgoing Congress by the end of the year is expected to vote on the Pentagon's request for $67bn in emergency funding to pay for the Iran war. The new Congress is also likely to receive additional requests from the administration to pay for repairing US military installations in the Middle East, which will revive long-standing discussions about the benefits of maintaining US military commitments in the region. "I talked to enough people while I was on the ground there to understand the reality that our base in Bahrain is obliterated," says Democratic senator Chris Murphy, who visited the region in early October. Bahrain used to host the US Fifth Fleet. The largest US Air Force base in the Middle East, at Al Udeid, Qatar, is "usable, but at a much lower-level capacity", Murphy says. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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