Cop: Fossil fuel shift talks come back to finance

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas
10/11/26

Fossil fuel phase-out discussions on the sidelines of official UN Cop 31 climate talks saw a strong emphasis on countries' own approaches to the transition, but developing nations reiterated it cannot happen without increased funding.

"Every country's transition is different," UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte said on Tuesday. And the strong acknowledgement at Cop 31 of different national circumstances and starting points was well received by some nations, after last year's disagreement at Cop 30 in Belem on the topic.

A series of side events on transitioning away from fossil fuels complemented the official presentation of the Cop 30 presidency's international fossil fuel roadmap today. The pledge of a roadmap was a key outcome of Cop 30 last year, although it was not one agreed on by consensus and sat outside the summit's official text.

The Brazilian Cop 30 presidency last week presented a blueprint intended to offer practical routes for countries to move away from fossil fuels.

Nigeria's national council of climate change director general Omotenioye Majekodunmi welcomed the roadmap "particularly in its recognition that while our collective destination is shared, our national starting point and pathways will differ".

Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said the roadmap "struck a positive cord" because "there is nothing prescriptive" about it. Almost 200 countries were called on in 2023 at Cop 28 to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, and progress in Cop discussions on the topic has largely stalled since.

But the developing countries taking part in the discussions today stressed the importance of finance when it comes to the energy transition. Developing nations need support to shift from fossil fuel-based energy and the highest-emitting countries must take action to phase out fossil fuels, a representative of the least developed countries (LDCs) said. The LDCs are a negotiating block at Cop summits.

The transition must take place "within the parameters of energy security" and "reduced fiscal space", Kyte said, speaking at an event about phasing out coal, the most polluting fossil fuel.

Irawan Asaad, director of resource mobilisation for climate change at the Indonesian environment ministry echoed Kyte's comments. "Indonesia needs to have an energy transition not only for growth but also for energy security and decarbonisation," he said. But "you cannot suddenly change the entire energy sector in Indonesia", he said. Infrastructure is the largest challenge for the country, he added, but the second one is finance to support the energy transition. Indonesia is the world's third largest coal producer, according to the IEA.

"Homegrown coal is attractive from an energy security point of view", compared to buying expensive gas from overseas, Kyte added. "Powering past coal is still the right goal … but we have to be flexible in how we help countries manage", she said. Parties to the Paris agreement were also called on to accelerated efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power at Cop 28.

Revenue dependencies

And for some producers, heavy dependence on fossil fuel revenue means the transition needs to be carefully managed.

"We depend heavily, up to 80pc or more on revenue from crude oil, and that's what funds our development objectives and plans," Nigeria foreign minister Sola Enikanolaiye said today. "It's not something we can immediately jettison in a transition plan," he said.

The real test for Nigeria will be mobilising investment and converting transition pathways into investable opportunities, Majekodunmi said.

UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for fossil fuel importing countries to "reduce their exposure", and producing countries to "diversify their economies and prepare for changing revenues, industries and jobs". "Taxing fossil fuel windfalls can help pay for all this", he said.

"Fossil fuels are not only driving the climate crisis. Dependence on them carries a steep economic and security price — as the crisis in the Middle East has laid bare."

Former US climate envoy John Kerry warned that a central Cop 31 goal, to raise electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035 is "not going to solve our problem" if the electricity is fossil-fuelled.

Cop 30 last year also spurred a "coalition of the willing" — countries that wanted to accelerate the move away from fossil fuels — which culminated in a conference in Colombia in April, co-hosted by the Netherlands.

The Dutch government said today that the country would commit €6mn ($6.7mn) to a fund to assist countries with developing pathways to transition from fossil fuels. The German government has also committed to funding for transitioning away from fossil fuels, electrification, renewables, energy efficiency and grids and storage.

By Georgia Gratton, Caroline Varin and Rhys Talbot

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10/11/26

Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC

Berlin, 10 November (Argus) — Libya's internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) has pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15pc in 2035 compared with 2023, conditional on international finance. The country submitted its first climate plan under the Paris climate agreement — or nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to UN climate arm the UNFCCC. It covers the 2026-35 period. Without international finance, Libya expects its GHG emissions to rise by 20pc over the period, still an improvement on the almost 35pc increase expected under a business-as-usual scenario, the GNU said. Libya expects most of the GHG reductions to stem from gas flaring recovery, which will capture and use natural gas currently wasted during oil production, reducing emissions while increasing energy supply, the GNU said. Gas flaring recovery projects are expected to avoid around 90mn t CO2e and save 40mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of natural gas for domestic use or export in 2026–35. Emissions cuts in power generation are also expected to contribute significantly. Political instability since Libya's 2011 civil war explains the late submission of its first NDC, and also leads to challenging financing conditions, the GNU said. Libya emitted 97.3mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023, with the energy sector — including not just oil, gas and power production but also transport — the biggest emitter by far, accounting for 88pc. The country pointed to its substantial crude reserves, saying that the exploitation of oil and gas is an opportunity for investment and development. But it is also working to diversify its economy to protect itself from oil prices fluctuations and contribute to the energy transition and cut its exposure to environmental vulnerabilities, the GNU said. Implementing Libya's emissions reduction measures will require an estimated $29.6bn over 2026–35, of which domestic finance accounts for 31pc, according to the NDC. The energy sector will require the lion's share, at $28bn. But while the largest overall contribution to the cuts will come from gas flaring recovery, at 36pc, this is estimated to need just $1.9 bn, or 6.3pc, of the total finance. This compares with the power sector, which will contribute 26pc to emissions cuts but is expected to need $14.6bn, around half the total finance. The transport sector will need $8.8 bn, or almost 30pc of the total. Funds will support fleet modernisation, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, electrification and public transport. The GNU also pointed to state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC's) engagement in international initiatives such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), and related tools including the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS). The GNU has been assessing the viability of replacing diesel with gas for power generation. The switch to natural gas in the country's power sector could save 40mn toe in 2026-35. Libya also needs to develop international partnerships to position itself at the "forefront of major research into hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen", the GNU said. And the GNU wishes to make "full use" of the cooperative mechanisms provided for in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which includes two international carbon market mechanisms. Libya is also looking at introducing a "gradual" carbon tax or carbon market, the GNU said, as a "tool to improve energy efficiency and to secure financing to reduce fugitive emissions or in the electricity, industrial, waste, agriculture and forestry sectors". The GNU anticipates further GDP growth until 2035, along with a "significant" reduction in the country's carbon intensity even under the business-as-usual scenario. This is as the country starts from a "very high emission" level owing to the "total" absence of emissions reduction policies, it said. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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OGDC's oil, gas firms maintain focus on emissions cuts

10/11/26

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10/11/26

OGDC's oil, gas firms maintain focus on emissions cuts

Edinburgh, 10 November (Argus) — Oil and gas firms in industry initiative the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC) have maintained focus on commitments and co-operation "against a backdrop of geopolitical unpredictability, disrupted energy markets and competing operational pressures", Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, Saudi Arabia's state-controlled Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser and TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said today. But gaps in data and data quality remain a challenge for the initiative. The three chief executives representing the initiative launched at Cop 28 in 2023 said that the OGDC signatories recognise reducing avoidable emissions in the sector "is an immediate contribution the industry must make while continuing to provide the energy the world demands, improve efficiency, and strengthen resilience". "Despite regional disruption in the Middle East, OGDC continues to serve as a multilateral platform that unites signatories from the US, Europe, the [Middle East] Gulf region, India, Africa, South America and Asia, to address the energy trilemma [energy security, affordability and sustainability] head on," they said. But even though the initiative said that transparency among the signatories has improved, it added that important gaps remain and some "continue to provide incomplete or only partially verified data". In 2025, the total scope 1 and 2 emissions, including upstream and downstream operations, reported by 47 signatories out of 56 then was around 840mn t CO2 equivalent (CO2e). The 47 firms in 2025 represented 88pc of OGDC production. Scope 1 and 2 emissions from operations and indirect energy supply to operations typically account for a smaller share of oil and gas producers' emissions, while scope 3, or end-use, emissions represent an estimated 80-95pc of oil and gas producers' emissions. The OGDC report showed that around 74pc of a total of above 490mn t CO2e in upstream scope 1 and 2 emissions could be attributed to national oil companies in 2025. The OGDC's signatories' upstream carbon intensity has been estimated at around 22kg CO2e/bl of oil equivalent (boe) for the same period, according to the report. This is expected to change as data maturity improves, and it is "premature to deduce any trends", it said. On methane, the report said that the industry has made significant progress in methane leak detection and mitigation technologies, as well as improvements in operational practices, but there are fewer companies reporting on their methane emissions than on scope 1 and 2. "The aggregate OGDC upstream methane emissions estimate for 2025 is around 3mn t, of which 46pc is derived from third-party data," the OGDC report said. The report showed that OGDC signatories' upstream flaring volumes were around 29bn m³ or around 17pc of global flaring volumes. Around 80pc came from non-OGCI members, it noted. OGCI is another industry initiative and comprises Saudi Aramco, BP, Chevron, China's CNPC, Italy's Eni, Norway's Equinor, ExxonMobil, US firm Occidental, Brazil's Petrobras, Spain's Repsol, Shell and TotalEnergies. A total of 35 signatories, accounting for 84pc of OGDC operated production, have allocated capital to support their interim goals, and half said their budgets cover their entire plans, the report said. And 46 signatories, covering 96pc of operated production, have set voluntary interim 2030 Scope 1 and 2 ambitions, while more than 80pc of production is covered by action plans on emissions, methane and routine flaring, it said. The charter now has 57 signatories as of November, representing around one-third of global oil production. The Eni-Petronas joint-venture Searah joined the initiative earlier this month. Of the signatory companies, around two-thirds are state-owned, while OGDC signatories produced around 58mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2025, according to the report. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Egypt targets 25pc oil/gas GHG fall vs business/usual

10/11/26

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10/11/26

Egypt targets 25pc oil/gas GHG fall vs business/usual

London, 10 November (Argus) — Egypt plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in its oil and gas sector by a quarter against a business-as-usual scenario by 2035, the country says in its latest climate plan under the Paris Agreement submitted to UN climate arm the UNFCCC on 8 November. The government expects GHG emissions in the oil and gas sectors to be just over 2mn t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2035, compared with a business-as-usual scenario of 2.74mn t CO2e, its third climate plan, or nationally determined contribution (NDC), says. In 2030, emissions will be around 1.7mn t CO2e, compared with a business-as-usual level of 2.57mn t CO2e. Egypt also plans measures such as switching household cooking fuel away from LPG to natural gas. The latest NDC says government priorities to 2035 include transitioning away from fossil fuels in a "just, orderly, and equitable manner, while refraining from investments in unabated coal power". The country has also pledged to continue the gradual removal of oil product subsidies. The plan also lays out 2035 emissions targets for the electricity and transport sectors. GHG emissions in the electricity sector will be 154.5mn t CO2e in 2035, 38pc lower than a business-as-usual scenario. The transport sector's GHG emissions will fall by 13.3mn t CO2e, or around 8pc, against business-as-usual levels in 2035, to 157mn t CO2e. All three sectors' targets are presented as reductions against business-as-usual levels, rather than absolute emissions reductions, and the country's GHG emissions are expected to continue to rise until 2035 with no sign of peaking. The three sectors accounted for almost half of Egypt's total GHG emissions in 2022, according to the NDC. Egypt in 2022 emitted just under 386mn t CO2e, up from 350mn t CO2e in 2019, according to its first biennial transparency report submitted to the UNFCCC. Egypt's latest NDC also underlines the 2024 national strategy for low-carbon hydrogen strategy, which aims to position the country as a "future global hub for green and blue hydrogen". As part of the strategy, hydrogen will be introduced as an industrial fuel after 2030 in the local market, particularly in sectors such as fertilizers and iron and steel production, and it will also serve as a cleaner substitute for natural gas in refinery operations, the NDC says. Egypt is on track to meet its 2030 NDC targets with existing policies, largely owing to the country's unambitious climate targets, according to a recent progress report covering the world's largest emitters. The report says fossil fuels remain "central" to Egypt's economic strategy, with the government seeking to reverse declining domestic production. Egypt estimates the financial resources required to implement its third NDC at a "minimum" $324bn, of which mitigation measures account for about two-thirds, or $211bn, with the rest earmarked for adaptation measures. Egypt views all of these financial requirements as conditional, depending on receiving external financial support such as concessional finance and grants. The country also expresses its interest in taking part in international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Fossil CO2 emissions projected to fall in 2026: Report

10/11/26

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10/11/26

Fossil CO2 emissions projected to fall in 2026: Report

Antalya, 10 November (Argus) — Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4pc in 2026, as renewable power capacity grows and conflict constrains oil supply, a team of scientists said today in the Global Carbon Budget 2026 report. Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to stand at 38.2bn t this year, driven by a 1.9pc projected decline in carbon emissions from oil, the report found. This is "likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict", it said. Carbon emissions from natural gas were projected to fall by 0.3pc this year, while those from coal are projected to rise by 0.6pc, the report found. Energy demand globally continues to increase, but two thirds of this is met by solar and wind power and electric vehicles (EV), the report said. But although renewables and EVs "are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline", director of the university of Exeter's Global Carbon Budget Office Pierre Friedlingstein said. "A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change", research professor at the Cicero Center for International Climate Research Glen Peters said. Total carbon emissions — from fossil fuel consumption and emissions from land use change — are projected at 43.3bn t in 2026, up by 1.2pc on the year as CO2 emissions from land use change are projected to increase, the report said. Total CO2 emissions have in the past decade grown by 0.3pc per year on average, more slowly than the previous decade's 1.7pc annually. The remaining carbon budget, which is the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before global warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, stands at 150bn t. This is equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates, the report found. The Paris climate agreement seeks to curb the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. The Global Carbon Budget report is produced annually by an international team of more than 140 scientists. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Senate starts debate on permitting bill: Update

09/11/26

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09/11/26

US Senate starts debate on permitting bill: Update

Adds details on US Senate vote Washington, 9 November (Argus) — A bipartisan permitting bill that would overhaul government approvals of energy projects has cleared a major procedural hurdle in the US Senate, despite a last-minute threat from President Donald Trump to continue blocking wind projects if the bill passes. The Senate on Monday voted 73-25 to start debate on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), easily surpassing a 60-vote threshold needed to avoid a filibuster. Senate Republicans and Democrats who spent the last year in negotiations said the bill will eventually bring down energy prices for consumers by making it easier to build pipelines, install electric transmission lines and develop clean energy projects alike. But Trump injected last-minute uncertainty into the procedural vote by saying he plans to keep blocking wind projects, even if the bill becomes law. Democrats had spent the last month in negotiations with the White House seeking assurances that if they approved BAAJA, the administration would restart regular permitting of wind and solar projects that had been blocked. "The bill hasn't been fully negotiated," Trump told reporters. "I will not approve wind turbines because wind turbines are a major loser." Asked for comment, the White House said Trump remained fully in support of BAAJA and reiterated his support for the bill in the press briefing. BAAJA would fast-track environmental reviews of infrastructure and make it harder for permits of fully authorized projects to be revoked, either in response to a lawsuit or because of a change in administrations. The bill also includes language to deter the White House from banning full categories of projects, such as wind farms or LNG export terminals, while making it easier to approve electric transmission lines. But some Democrats say they cannot support the bill as written because they worry Trump will use it to accelerate fossil fuel development, while continuing to slow-walk approvals of wind and solar projects. And many environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council, say BAAJA goes too far by shielding permits from meaningful review, even when there are flagrant errors. Former US vice president Al Gore, who is influential on climate policy, on Monday said Democrats should take up permitting legislation next year when they control Congress. "Now is not the time to give the Trump administration freer rein to double down on fossil fuels," Gore wrote on social media. Even so, the bill has been picking up major endorsements that make it more likely to pass, including in the Republican-led US House of Representatives where passage could be most difficult. On Monday, electric utility trade group the Edison Electric Institute — which in 2024 helped block a smaller permitting bill — gave its formal endorsement. Far-right conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus the same day said they wanted to pass "robust permitting bill" by the end of the year, although they did not specifically endorse BAAJA. The White House has started advancing clean energy projects as part of negotiations on the bill. The US Department of Defense on Monday advanced another 10 onshore wind projects that were previously under review, the White House said, including four projects in Texas and two projects in Illinois. "The Trump administration has walked the walk. Now it's time for the Senate to stop talking and deliver!" a White House official said. "After weeks of good-faith negotiations and actions from the White House, the passage of BAAJA now falls entirely on the Senate." Now that the Senate has voted to begin debate on BAAJA, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee ranking member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) said he expects the US Interior Department will have "something to say" related to permitting of energy projects. As many as 250 projects that are backed up at the Department of Defense will "begin to move" as part of the deal to return to normal permitting, Whitehouse said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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