Why China’s grain buying has changed
China has long been one of the most influential players in global agricultural markets, particularly in grains and oilseeds. Shifts in China’s buying behaviour can reshape global trade flows almost overnight, given that it is the world’s most populous country and a major importer.
But China’s grain imports have undergone a notable transformation in recent years. Import volumes for key feed grains have slowed sharply, after several years of strong buying activity. This has raised important questions for exporters: Is China permanently reducing its appetite for overseas grain, or is this a temporary pause? And how will trade flows evolve in the years ahead?
An examination of recent market dynamics shows that China’s changing buying patterns are driven by a combination of domestic production growth, weaker feed demand and ongoing trade frictions, while imports of soybeans remain structurally strong.
Feed grain imports fall back within quotas
China’s imports of major feed grains — including wheat, corn, barley, and sorghum — declined sharply in 2025 compared with previous years. On a marketing year basis, imports appear to have peaked during the 2020–24 period before turning lower.
The decline has been particularly pronounced for wheat and corn. Imports of both commodities fell back within their respective tariff rate quotas (TRQs) in 2025, after exceeding them for 4-5 consecutive years. Wheat imports dropped to around 3.9mn t, while corn imports fell to about 2.6mn t — down from more than 11mn t and 30mn t, respectively, in 2024.
Barley and sorghum imports also declined, but to a lesser extent. Demand for malting barley remains relatively stable, but feed use has fallen as livestock producers increasingly turn to cheaper domestic corn. Sorghum imports weakened further following additional tariffs on US agricultural products, particularly affecting a market where the US has historically been China’s largest supplier.
Domestic production is reshaping import needs
One of the most important factors behind weaker grain imports is China’s expanding domestic output.
China’s wheat production has increased by roughly 60pc over the past two decades, while corn output has nearly tripled since the start of the 21st century. Corn production reached a record high of about 301mn t in 2025, exceeding 300mn t for the first time. Soybean production also climbed to nearly 21mn t.
Food security remains a central policy objective. Corn and wheat are designated as key crops, supported through farming subsidies, minimum support price (MSP) purchases, and government reserve programmes. These measures help stabilise farmer incomes and encourage sustained output growth.
China has accelerated the adoption of genetically modified (GMO) corn varieties at the same time. In 2025, GMO corn was planted across 13 provinces, with acreage expanding to about 3.7mn hectares (ha) (37,000 km²) — more than 80pc of total trial acreage. Corn output could exceed 320mn t by 2034–35, further reducing reliance on imports, official projections suggest.
Lower prices, weaker feed demand
Record domestic supplies have pushed local grain prices lower, dampening interest in imported alternatives. Corn prices fell below 2,100 yuan/t ($302/t) following the 2025 harvest and briefly dropped under Yn2,000/t in November given that farmers accelerated sales. Wheat prices have been more stable due to MSP support, but overall price levels remain low by recent standards.
Demand side factors have also played a key role. Grain imports are closely tied to animal feed consumption, which in turn depends on livestock profitability and herd sizes.
China’s pig sector has faced shrinking margins since early 2023, after recovering from African swine fever losses earlier in the decade. Breeders have reduced inventories, while authorities have introduced measures to control breeding capacity and slaughter weights to stabilise pork prices. These developments point to softer feed demand in the near term, limiting the need for imported feed grains.
Trade tensions continue to distort flows
Trade policy has added another layer of complexity. In 2025, China imposed a series of additional tariffs on US agricultural products, at one point pushing duties as high as 125pc. The impact on trade flows has been significant, even as conditions improved later in the year, with China resuming purchases under reduced tariffs and temporary suspensions.
Soybean shipments from the US resumed in late October, with state owned firms completing roughly 12mn t of purchases by mid January to meet buying commitments. But buying has still remained below historical averages. A wide price spread between US and Brazilian soybeans, combined with a remaining 10pc tariff, has reduced the competitiveness of US supplies for Chinese processors.
For corn and wheat, purchases from the US have been minimal due to duties and TRQ requirements. By contrast, US sorghum — which is not subject to TRQs — has attracted more interest from feed producers.
DDGS: A shifting landscape
Distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) illustrate how trade policy can reshape markets. China’s DDGS imports surged earlier in the decade but collapsed after anti dumping and countervailing duties were imposed on US supplies. Those duties were extended again in 2023, preventing a meaningful recovery despite strong feed demand.
A notable development in 2025 was the opening of China’s market to Brazilian DDGS. Initial cargoes have been booked, but Brazil’s export capacity remains limited compared with the US. Brazil could emerge as a competitor over time, but concerns over quality, logistics and scale remain.
Soybeans remain the exception
In contrast to grains, China’s reliance on imported soybeans is structural. China continues to depend on overseas soybeans to supply its feed sector, given its limited arable land and strong demand for protein. Soybeans are primarily crushed for soymeal rather than for oil or biofuel, making imports closely linked to livestock cycles.
China’s could import around 110mn t of soybeans in the 2025–26 season, according to Argus projections. This is broadly in line with recent years, but domestic agencies expect volumes could eventually fall below 100mn t as production efficiency improves.
Looking ahead
China’s recent pullback from global grain markets does not signal a retreat from international trade, but rather a rebalancing, driven by domestic supply growth, weaker feed demand, and evolving trade relationships. Imports of wheat, corn, and other feed grains are likely to remain subdued, but soybeans will continue to anchor China’s presence in global agricultural markets.
For exporters and traders, understanding these structural shifts — rather than focusing solely on short term fluctuations — will be critical to navigating the next phase of global grain and oilseed trade.
