US rules out military intervention in Venezuela

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 01/03/19

The US is not considering a military intervention in Venezuela but is instead working to persuade China and Russia to help facilitate incumbent president Nicolas Maduro's exit, US State Department special envoy on Venezuela Elliott Abrams said.

Abrams also confirmed ongoing discussions with the Maduro government, even though Washington holds his rule to be illegitimate. Washington and more than 50 other countries recognize National Assembly speaker Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim leader.

"We are not attempting to do (military intervention)," Abrams said at a briefing today. "We continue to say 'all options are on the table,' because they always are. But anyone who looks at the US policy in Venezuela could not reach that conclusion."

A month after the US administration imposed sanctions on Venezuela's national oil company PdV, Maduro appears firmly in control. The country's senior military forces continue to back him, despite a promise of amnesty from Guaidó and the prospect of relief from targeted US sanctions.

The US administration still hopes that humanitarian aid deliveries to Venezuela from neighboring states will sway the country's military forces to back Guaidó's interim authority. The US Agency for International Development has prepositioned almost 500 tons of food and medicine at border points in Colombia, Brazil and Curacao. Those deliveries are continuing, even though efforts to bring the aid into Venezuela were disrupted on 23 February.

The crisis in Venezuela is turning into a great power competition. Russia has delivered 7.5 tons of medicine and will supply wheat to Venezuela, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said today. Moscow has denounced the US policy and says its ultimate goal is to force a regime change through military means to install a puppet regime.

"I do not think you will see large amounts of additional money put in by Russia and China, but their political and diplomatic support helps the Maduro regime," Abrams said. "We have made the argument, unsuccessfully to date, to both Russia and China that they are not helping themselves." The US argues that only a new government can turn around Venezuela's struggling economy and repay the tens of billions of dollars Caracas owes to Moscow and Beijing.

Guaidó's government has assured foreign investors, including those in Russia and China, that it will honor Venezuela's debt obligations. Caracas sends crude to China as payment for historical loans that Chinese banks made to Venezuela — around $23bn of the $54bn lent is outstanding. A 49.9pc stake in PdV's US refining arm Citgo holding company has also been used by Venezuela as collateral for a loan from Russian state-owned Rosneft, and for a PdV 2020 bond, the only Venezuelan issuance not in default.

"Why does it not occur to you that we have other interests," Russian ambassador in the UN Vasili Nebenzya said after Abrams brought up the repayment of debts at a Security Council meeting earlier this week.

Installing a new executive board and management at Citgo is perhaps Guaidó's one major accomplishment since he declared himself interim president on 23 January.

Guaidó has also appointed an ad hoc administrative board at PdV as part of the effort to protect Citgo, but PdV remains under the control of the Maduro government.

Abrams said that the US continues to revoke visas for senior Venezuelan officials and their family members. And the Treasury Department today added six senior Venezuelan security officials to the US sanctions list, citing their role in obstructing the aid deliveries.

"You will see additional sanctions tied to the behavior of the regime, and you will see more reaction if they engage in additional provocative acts," Abrams said.

Guaidó left Venezuela on 22 February for an aid concert that preceded the failed efforts to transport the food and medicine across the border the following day. He has visited Colombia, Brazil and Paraguay since then. He says he will return to Venezuela soon.

Being locked out of the country would diminish Guaidó already tentative authority, and the US says its priority is to ensure his safe return. "We are concerned about his ability to go home," Abrams said. "If he is arrested, you would see a very big reaction on the part of the people of Venezuela and the international community."

Colombia's foreign ministry today warned of growing threats to Guaidó's life, and warned that the "regime of Nicolas Maduro" would be held responsible if anything happens to him or his family.

The US, meanwhile, maintains contacts with the Maduro government. "Our conversations with the de facto regime are primarily about the safety of Americans," Abrams said. "We have an embassy, and we have 12 Americans in prison," including five former Citgo executives arrested in November 2017.

"In any situation like this, do you talk to the guys who have the guns, who have the power right now? Yes, to protect Americans," Abrams said.


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