Rogue coup attempt thwarts US plan for Venezuela
The latest botched effort to oust Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has dealt a harsh blow to the US-backed political opposition's ambitious plans to install an interim government and reinvigorate the Opec member's oil sector.
The Maduro government accuses opposition leader Juan Guaido and Venezuelan political operatives abroad of signing a $212.9mn contract with Florida-based security firm Silvercorp to lead a mercenary operation in league with Venezuelan soldiers exiled in Colombia. In a press conference yesterday, communications minister Jorge Rodriguez claimed a Colombian drugs-trafficker and agent of the US Drug Enforcement Administration was in charge of logistics for the operation.
Two US military veterans and around 14 soldiers are now detained in Venezuela after carrying out foiled amphibious operations on 3-4 May, Venezuelan officials said. At least eight were killed.
In declarations yesterday before the opposition-controlled National Assembly over which he presides, Guaido denied any connection to the group or to Silvercorp.
US president Donald Trump yesterday denied any knowledge of the incidents. "We just heard about it," Trump said, adding: "But it has nothing to do with our government." In a briefing this morning, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo said "there was no direct US government involvement in this operation. If we were involved, it would have gone differently." Pompeo declined to comment on who might have bankrolled it, warning that the Maduro government could decide to hold any US citizens caught up in the episode as hostages.
A person reached at Silvercorp on 4 May declined to comment, except to note that Jordan Goudreau, head of the self-described "security risk management" company, was in Colombia.
The Maduro government claims Silvercorp is linked to security for Trump. Silvercorp has boasted of ties to Venezuela's opposition. On its Instagram page, Silvercorp says it provided security during a 22 February 2019 Venezuela aid concert in the Colombian border town on Cucuta, on the eve of a failed US-backed effort to bring humanitarian aid into Venezuela. Guaido had slipped out of Venezuela to appear on stage in what were the heady, early days of the anti-Maduro campaign.
The opposition is now blaming the Maduro government for the fresh debacle. "The regime knew about that operation, you (Maduro) infiltrated it and waited to massacre them," Guaido said.
Guaido leads a parallel administration, run mostly by Venezuelan exiles, that earned recognition from the US and more than 50 other countries since his constitutional declaration on 23 January 2019. Shortly after, the US imposed oil sanctions on Venezuelan state-owned PdV, complementing financial sanctions levied in August 2017.
But contrary to US and opposition expectations, Maduro resisted efforts to remove him, including an aborted 30 April 2019 military uprising. And despite broad Western recognition for Guaido's parallel administration, Maduro maintains the recognition of the UN and most multilateral organizations, as well as Russia, China and other governments.
Stalled momentum
After Guaido overcame a Russian-backed government maneuver at the end of 2019 to sideline him from the National Assembly, Washington has struggled to reinject momentum into the regime change campaign. Trump is up for re-election in November, and Florida, home to many Venezuelan and Cuban exiles, is critical to his prospects. Havana is Venezuela's key security and ideological partner.
The US ratcheted up sanctions this year, with a focus on Maduro supporters Cuba and Russia. And in March, the US Justice Department indicted Maduro and more than a dozen senior associates for drugs trafficking and money-laundering. A few days later on 31 March, as the Covid-19 pandemic started spreading through Venezuela, the US laid out a power-sharing plan that would gradually dismantle the sanctions in line with steps toward democratic elections. In the meantime, the US launched an anti-narcotics campaign in the Caribbean, very close to Venezuelan waters.
Whether the new coup attempt was condoned or just inspired by the US administration, any fresh momentum that built up in recent weeks has now stalled.
Maduro has launched a new security crackdown, even as his new acting oil minister Tareck El Aissami and acting PdV chief executive Asdrubal Chavez work to consolidate control over PdV.
Under their watch, PdV is working to repair the company's refineries with Chinese and Iranian support. Recommendations by an El Aissami-led restructuring commission to overhaul PdV and open up the sector to private investment were leaked last week, eclipsing the opposition's final oil sector reform proposal that was released days later.
A fuel shortage is slowly easing, thanks to a trickle of supply, partly transshipped through neighboring Caribbean islands.
Related news posts
Oil firm ReconAfrica agrees to class action settlement
Oil firm ReconAfrica agrees to class action settlement
Cape Town, 18 April (Argus) — Africa-focused, Canada-based upstream firm ReconAfrica has agreed to pay $10.8mn in total to eligible shareholders to settle class action lawsuits lodged in different jurisdictions over allegations that the company made misleading statements. The company will pay $7.05mn to investors who bought its shares on the US over-the-counter (OTC) markets and $3.7mn to shareholders who bought securities in the firm on Canada's TSX Venture Exchange and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange within specified class periods. In Canada, parties reached the proposed settlement after a full-day mediation in October 2023, without any admission of liability by ReconAfrica. A hearing has been scheduled on 20 June for the British Columbia Supreme Court to approve the settlement. The plaintiffs allege that between May 2020 and September 2021, ReconAfrica released misleading statements, including its plans to undertake hydraulic fracturing of "unconventional" resources and "shale" deposits within Namibia. The firm failed to disclose that Namibia has never before allowed fracking. The plaintiffs further claim that ReconAfrica did not disclose data from its test wells that revealed poor prospects for achieving commercially viable oil and gas production. The company also stands accused of undertaking unlicensed drilling and illegal water usage, as well as other environmental and human rights violations. It denies all these allegations. ReconAfrica has a current market capitalisation of C$204.7mn. Earlier this month, it raised C$17.25mn in a public share offering. The firm plans to undertake a multi-well drilling campaign this year, with the first well in Namibia's Damara Fold Belt scheduled for June. The company controls the entire Kavango sedimentary basin, which spans over 300km from the northeast of Namibia to northwest Botswana. Early estimates claimed the basin could hold as much as 31bn bl of oil, of which 22.3bn bl are in Namibia and 8.7bn bl in Botswana. ReconAfrica has a 90pc stake in the PEL 73 licence, which extends 25,000km² across northeast Namibia. The remaining 10pc is held by Namibian state-run company Namcor. The Kavango basin includes part of the ecologically sensitive Okavango Delta, a Unesco World Heritage site. The Okavango watershed consists of the Okavango river and a network of shallow, interlinked aquifers, which is a vital water source for more than a million people. The delta also serves as a habitat and migration path for many endangered animal species. Last year, ReconAfrica received environmental approval to drill 12 more wells in the Kavango. The firm recently completed a technical review of its entire exploration inventory in Namibia and now expects to find a mix of oil and gas. ReconAfrica announced an updated prospective resource estimate for Damara last month, indicating an unrisked 15.4bn bl of undiscovered oil initially-in-place. This compares with a previous estimate that pointed only to prospective natural gas resources amounting to 22.4 trillion ft³. The change "is the result of in-depth analyses of all geochemical data, including cores, cuttings, mud logs, seeps and additional basin modelling studies," ReconAfrica said. The firm has made the updated estimates available to potential joint venture partners and expects to complete this month a farm-out process that it started in December 2023. By Elaine Mills Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Uganda aims for net zero energy sector by 2062
Uganda aims for net zero energy sector by 2062
Kampala, 18 April (Argus) — Uganda has brought forward its target for net zero carbon emissions from its energy sector by three years, to 2062, energy ministry permanent secretary Irene Batebe told an oil and gas conference in Kampala. This new deadline is still lagging some way behind a 2050 "net zero operations" target pledged by 40 oil and gas firms , including African state-owned ones such as Libya's NOC and Sudan's Nilepet, at the UN Cop 28 climate summit. Signatories to the Cop 28 charter also pledged "near-zero upstream methane emissions" by 2030. Uganda's CO2 emissions from fuel combustion were 5.7mn t in 2021, according to most recent IEA data, but this will probably increase with the development of a 230,000 b/d crude project in its western Lake Albert region. The crude project had been scheduled to begin production in late 2025 — although the head of TotalEnergies' Ugandan operations recently said the company may miss this long-standing target. Batebe said the Ugandan government has plans to increase hydroelectricity capacity to around 52GW by 2050, to increase use of solar wind and nuclear power, and has a budget of $8bn by 2030 to finance these. The IEA estimates hydroelectricity accounts for around 90pc of Uganda's generating capacity. But this installed capacity is only around 1.5GW currently. The country's nuclear ambitions remain at the planning stage, and biomass — wood and charcoal — dominates energy consumption. "We want to phase out use of coal, but… countries that produced oil and gas should get out first and we shall follow," she said. "We cannot afford to remain poor. We shall produce our oil and gas responsibly, use LPG from the [planned] refinery and then connect more than the current 57pc of our population to electricity with affordability to use it for cooking and other uses other than lighting then meet our emissions targets." Batebe said the world's longest heated crude export pipeline, which will connect its oil fields with to the port of Tanga on Tanzania's Indian Ocean coast, will be insulated to "three layers" to limit emissions. TotalEnergies' Ugandan general manager Philippe Groueix said the two Lake Albert projects, Tilenga and Kingfisher, are designed to produce crude at 13kg of CO2/bl, far below the world average of 33 kg/bl. TotalEnergies is developing the 190,000 b/d Tilenga field and and Chinese state-controlled CNOOC the 40,000 b/d Kingfisher. By Mercy Matsiko Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UAE air traffic recovery begins after storm disruptions
UAE air traffic recovery begins after storm disruptions
Singapore, 18 April (Argus) — Air traffic at Dubai International (DXB) has begun to recover after an unprecedented storm hit the country on 16 April, although flight delays are expected to continue. "DXB resumed inbound flights of international airlines operating out of terminal 1", a spokesperson for DXB operator Dubai Airports said on 18 April. But it urged travellers not to come to the terminal for outbound flights before confirming their flight status, as it said the access to the terminal is "strictly limited" to guests with confirmed departures. Prolonged flight disruptions at DXB, which was ranked the second-busiest airport in the world in 2023, according to the Airports Council International's preliminary ranking, could affect regional jet fuel demand. Dubai low-cost carrier flydubai said it has now resumed partial operations from DXB, having previously cancelled all of its flights scheduled to depart from Dubai on 16 April evening until 10am on 17 April. Select outbound flights were to operate from DXB's terminal 2 with scheduled operations resuming after 8pm on 17 April, it said, while flights from terminal 3 were due to resume after midnight. But Dubai-owned Emirates Airlines has extended the suspension on check-in for passengers departing DXB until 9am on 18 April, after having initially suspending it between 8am and midnight on 17 April. The airline said the extension was because of "continued operational challenges caused by bad weather and road conditions". Neighbouring Abu Dhabi's Zayed international airport said it is "operating smoothly", despite issuing a warning on 17 April that some flights might be delayed. By Ieva Paldaviciute Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions
US reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions
Washington, 17 April (Argus) — The US administration today reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned PdV. The US decision rescinds a sanctions waiver issued last October, which allowed Venezuela to sell oil freely to any buyer and to invite foreign investment in the country's energy sector. The waiver, which was due to expire on 18 April, was tied to Caracas' agreement to hold a competitive presidential election and to allow opposition politicians to contest it. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government reneged on that deal by refusing to register leading opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado or an alternative candidate designated by her, a senior US official said. The US considered the potential effects on global energy markets and other factors in its decision, but "fundamentally, the decision was based on the actions and non-actions of the Venezuelan authorities," the official said. The separate waivers granted to Chevron and to oil field service companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford will remain in place. Chevron will be allowed to continue lifting oil from its joint venture with PdV, solely for imports into the US. US-bound Venezuelan crude volumes averaged 133,000 b/d last year. Chevron said its Venezuela output was 150,000 b/d at the end of 2023. Argus estimated Venezuela's crude output at 850,000 b/d in March, up by 150,000 b/d on the year. PdV said it will seek to change terms of its nine active joint ventures , starting with Spain's Repsol, in an effort to boost production. The reimposition of sanctions will primarily affect Venezuelan exports to India and China. India has emerged as a major new destination for Venezuelan crude since the US lifted sanctions in October, importing 152,000 b/d in March. There are two more Venezuelan cargoes heading to India and are expected to arrive before the 31 May deadline. The VLCC Caspar left the Jose terminal on 14 March and was expected to arrive at a yet-unknown west coast Indian port on 26 April. The Suezmax Tinos left Venezuela on 18 March and was due at Sikka on 30 April. By contrast, Chinese imports of Venezuelan Merey, often labeled as Malaysian diluted bitumen, have been lower since October. Independent refiners in Shandong, which benefited from wide discounts on the sanctioned Venezuelan crude, cut back imports to just a fraction of pre-relief levels. By contrast, state-controlled PetroChina was able to resume imports. The Merey discount to Brent already widened in anticipation of a possible reimposition of US sanctions. Reprieve expected for European companies Separate US authorizations previously issued to Repsol and to Italy's Eni to allow oil-for-debt deals with PdV and to enable a Shell project to import natural gas from Venezuela's Dragon field to Trinidad and Tobago are expected to remain in place. The US sanctions enforcers as a rule do not disclose the terms of private sanctions licenses, and the European companies were not immediately available to comment. The US would still consider future requests for sanctions waivers for specific energy projects, another senior official said. Repsol imported 23,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude into Spain last year and 29,000 b/d so far this year, according to Vortexa data. The last cargo to arrive was on 15 April. Hope springs eternal The US administration says it will consider lifting the sanctions again if Maduro's government allows opposition candidates to participate in the July presidential election. The US action today "should not be viewed as a final decision that we no longer believe Venezuela can hold competitive and inclusive elections," a third senior official said. "We will continue to engage with all stakeholders, including Maduro representatives, the democratic opposition, civil society and the international community to support the Venezuelan people's efforts to ensure a better future for Venezuela." By Haik Gugarats and Kuganiga Kuganeswaran Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more