Steel in autos to drop sharply thru 2040: CAR
The amount of steel in automobiles is expected to fall sharply over the next two decades, replaced increasingly by aluminum and plastic, as automakers continue to strive for lighter weight vehicles.
The use of all types of steel in cars may fall by to 46pc of total curb weight in 2040, down from 65pc in 2020 vehicles, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) said in a 14 September presentation.
Mild steel and high strength steel (HSS) will be most impacted, falling from 40pc of vehicle curb weight in 2020 to just 9pc in 2040, according to CAR.
In 2019, US steel mills shipped 16.8mn short tons (st) of steel to the US auto industry, including for production of automobiles, heavy trucks, trailers and other vehicle parts, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
If the CAR forecast holds, by 2040 steel shipments to the US auto industry could fall to 11.89mn st.
The benefactors of lower steel use will be aluminum, whose share CAR projects will double to 26pc in 2040, and plastics, where curb weight is forecast to grow by 150pc to 15pc of total curb weight.
Between 2020 and 2025, steel used in vehicles is expected to fall by 5 percentage points, with a similar drop expected in the following five-year period. Mild steel and HSS are expected to shoulder all of the declines over those 10 years. The use of Generation 3 steel is expected to increase while advanced high strength steel (AHSS) use will remain approximately the same.
The changes comes as the auto industry climbs out of a deep hole dug during the Covid-19 pandemic, when automakers shut down production for two months from mid-March to mid-May and the US economy fell into a recession.
CAR research expects US vehicle production to fall to 6.6mn vehicles in 2020, down by 39pc compared to the 10.9mn vehicles produced in 2019. CAR expects production to recover to 10.5mn vehicles in 2021, climbing to 11.6mn in 2022 and remaining above 11.5mn through 2028.
Total vehicles sales in the USare forecast to fall to 12.9mn vehicles in 2020, down by 24pc compared to the 17mn vehicles sale recorded in 2019. Sales are not expected to recover above 16mn until 2022, and will not reach 17mn in 2024, according to CAR.
Related news posts
US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more to come
US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more to come
Houston, 18 September (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points today, the first rate cut since 2020, with officials signaling they expect to make another half point worth of cuts by the end of 2024. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.75-5pc from the prior range of 5.25-5.5pc, which was a two-decade high. The Fed had kept the target rate unchanged since July 2023 after hiking it for more than a year in the most aggressive increase campaign in four decades to quash inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022. "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2pc and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." The Fed board and policymakers, in their latest economic projections, expect the target rate range will end 2024 near a midpoint of 4.4pc compared with an end of year midpoint of 5.1pc projected in June, which implies further cuts amounting to 50 basis points by the end of 2024. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan's Tokyo Steel cuts sales prices on weak demand
Japan's Tokyo Steel cuts sales prices on weak demand
Shanghai, 18 September (Argus) — Japan's steel manufacturing firm Tokyo Steel said it will cut domestic steel product prices for October, marking the first full-scale price cut in over four years. The decision was driven by sluggish domestic demand and increased competition from cheaper imported steel products. Tokyo Steel will reduce prices across all product lines starting October, with steel coils and plates dropping by ¥15,000/t, shaped beams by ¥12,000/t, and tubes and deformed bars by ¥10,000/t. The company had maintained stable domestic steel prices for an extended period on the back of the steadier domestic demand and market conditions compared to the more volatile overseas market. The last price cut for deformed bars was in July 2023. Steel sales in Japan were weak during the third quarter, impacted by rising procurement costs for materials, a shortage of construction capacity, and an influx of cheaper steel products from China in the seaborne market, market participants said. A decline in profitability pushed Japanese mills to cut production costs. From 11 July to 14 September, domestic scrap prices at Tokyo Steel's Utsunomiya plant dropped by ¥12,500/t, or 23.8pc. Market sentiment in Japan remains bearish due to economic uncertainty and the strengthening of the Japanese yen. The upcoming adjustments in US monetary policy could add further volatility to exchange rates. "We may see more corrections in the Japanese domestic market," a trade source said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Duqm plans key to Oman’s LPG export outlook
Duqm plans key to Oman’s LPG export outlook
The revival of a major petrochemical project could cap exports despite rising production, writes Ieva Paldaviciute Dubai, 17 September (Argus) — Production from the new Duqm refinery has boosted Oman's LPG output this year, and driven an 89pc year-on-year rise in exports to 371,000t for the first eight months of 2024, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. But plans for new petrochemical facilities linked to the refinery could put a cap on export capacity in the near future. Oman's LPG output has more than doubled within the past decade, from 420,000t (13,400 b/d) in 2015 — the earliest year for which energy and minerals ministry data are available — to around 990,000t last year. That is due in large part to the start-up of state-owned OQ's Salalah LPG extraction plant in the southern Dhofar governorate. The first-of-its-kind gas treatment project in Oman and now contributes close to 300,000 t/yr to the country's LPG output. The majority of Oman's LPG production now comes from downstream facilities operated by OQ — around 62pc of last year's output came from its 198,000 b/d Sohar and 106,000 b/d Mina al Fahal refineries. Another 30pc came from the Salalah LPG plant, and just 8pc from the upstream Bukha and West Bukha, Saih Rawl and Wadi Aswad fields. Shortly before the Salalah plant came on line, OQ in early 2021 started up its Liwa Plastics Industrial Complex (LPIC), whose 880,000 t/yr ethylene steam cracker would fast become a major LPG consumer. Output from the steam cracker, in turn, feeds the complex's 880,000 t/yr polyethylene and 300,000 t/yr polypropylene units. This contributed to a near collapse in Omani LPG exports in the first quarter of 2021, as OQ started diverting the Sohar refinery's LPG output to feed LPIC. But once the Salalah LPG plant began to ramp up, Oman managed to gradually resume exports, this time from Salalah port. This has enabled Oman to export refrigerated LPG cargoes on larger tankers, with Sohar previously only able to accommodate pressurised or midsize carriers. Oman is now a net LPG exporter, but still imports the occasional cargo when Sohar is unable to provide sufficient feedstock supply to LPIC — Sohar port received 104,000t of LPG between January and August, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Both the Sohar refinery and LPIC are in northern Oman, far from the sultanate's other LPG production points. Chemical ambitions Oman's LPG output and exports have been lifted this year by new supply from the 230,000 b/d Duqm refinery, which at full capacity can produce up to 15,000 b/d of LPG. The facility was inaugurated in February but appears to have exported its first LPG cargo in September 2023, according to Kpler data, although this is not recorded in government data. But future exports could be capped if a new planned petrochemical complex, fed with naphtha and LPG produced at Duqm, is built alongside the refinery. Operator OQ8 — a 50:50 joint venture between OQ and Kuwait's state-owned KPI — initially had plans to build a 1.6mn t/yr petrochemicals complex, but design works were suspended in 2020, during the early part of the Covid-19 pandemic, because of the uncertain demand outlook. Plans appeared to have been revived in 2022, when OQ and KPI welcomed Saudi chemical giant Sabic onboard to develop a jointly owned petrochemical complex in Duqm. This project envisaged construction of a steam cracker and derivative units, as well as a natural gas liquid extraction facility. The three parties signed a non-binding agreement in late 2022, but a final investment decision has not yet been made. Oman LPG infrastructure Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
July EU HRC imports show 175,000t pullback
July EU HRC imports show 175,000t pullback
London, 17 September (Argus) — EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports surpassed 1.5mn t in July — a record high — as importers for the first time faced a cap to the ‘other countries' safeguard quota, which led some to purchase back-up material from other sources. More importantly, official figures show that around 175,000t were pulled back from customs clearing, likely all in Italy, after the initial quota numbers were made available in early July from Egypt, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan. This leftover amount will likely all be custom-cleared in October, in addition to material that has arrived since July, as market participants expect importers to clear all of their HRC to avoid the risk of retroactive duties, potentially applicable from December. Imports from Taiwan, India, Turkey and Japan in July all surpassed the 200,000t mark each, with total imports from those four origins close to 900,000t, a sharp year-on-year increase. Vietnam saw volumes drop ( see table ), while South Korean imports fell by 75pc on the year to 40,379t and Serbian imports were down by 10pc to 37,437t. Hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) imports were at a record high, topping 750,000t in July, with nearly 30pc of the total from Vietnam. There has been concern in the market that the EU might start an investigation on Vietnamese HDG, as volumes have been on the increase, while suppliers are regularly the lowest-priced in the market. Plate imports were also at a record high, as EU producers are preparing to file for an investigation on some origins. Meanwhile, the increase in imports and the drop in EU demand has led producers to seek export outlets, with EU HRC exports rising on the year and on the month in July to nearly 230,000t, with the bulk going to the UK, US and Turkey. Downstream product exports also increased. By Lora Stoyanova and Colin Richardson July EU HRC imports t July y-o-y ±% Taiwan 227,892.8 8.2 India 225,558.6 134.8 Turkey 223,185.9 255.2 Japan 210,842.9 6.5 Egypt 158,625.7 31.9 Vietnam 144,202.0 -59.5 Ukraine 101,721.2 118.5 Australia 51,784.0 104.4 Saudi Arabia 40,594.8 -36.4 Total 1,565,744.2 9.1 — GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more