Cuba weighs odds of US thaw against Venezuela ties
Cuba is hoping the impending political shift in Washington will lead the US to ease its longstanding economic embargo, but any new rapprochement would likely come at the price of the island's close ties to Venezuela.
Cuba was among many countries that swiftly congratulated Joe Biden for his victory in the 3 November US elections in spite of incumbent president Donald Trump's refusal to concede. Russia, China and Turkey are still holding off.
In recognizing the "new course" chosen by the US electorate, Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel signaled an openness to "the possibility of a constructive bilateral relationship that is respectful of differences."
One Caribbean diplomat in Havana told Argus that Cuban officials felt "some relief" that the Trump era was giving way to a "more flexible" administration.
President-elect Biden served as vice president in 2008-16 under Trump's predecessor Barack Obama who spearheaded a short-lived thaw in relations with Cuba. During the presidential campaign in October, Biden signaled a willingness to resume that overture.
"The (Trump) administration's approach is not working. Cuba is no closer to democracy than it was four years ago," he said. Biden has expressed support for diplomacy over "regime change".
The US embargo on Cuba is a Cold War relic dating back to the early 1960s. After a 1990s "special period" of malaise that followed the collapse of its Soviet patron, Havana moved into Venezuela's orbit under late president Hugo Chavez, an acolyte of Cuba's late revolutionary leader Fidel Castro. In a bilateral deal signed in 2000, Venezuela began supplying oil to Cuba in exchange for the deployment of Cuban experts in healthcare, security, sports and other areas. The opaque arrangement has endured for two decades in spite of the steep decline in Venezuela's oil production under Chavez's successor, Nicolas Maduro.
One of the recent drivers of the energy ties is the escape valve that the island provides for Venezuela's state-owned PdV when oil storage fills up at home, because the US sanctions have impeded exports.
Under the Trump administration, the US levied financial and oil sanctions in a failed effort to depose Maduro in favor of opposition leader Juan Guaido. Over the past year, the US targeted tankers and shipping companies to try to cut off Venezuela's oil supplies to Cuba, with little direct impact.
Siege narrative
For Havana and Caracas, the sanctions drive a common political narrative that blames the US for prolonged hardship, manifested by severe shortages of fuel for transportation, agriculture and power generation. In an unusually detailed 22 October assessment, the Cuban government denounced Trump's more aggressive sanctions for blocking access to critical spare parts, worsening a fuel shortage and interrupting the island's offshore oil exploration campaign.
Both impoverished countries rely heavily on financial remittances from expatriates and their descendants, particularly in the US state of Florida where many of them voted for Trump.
The campaign of the outgoing Republican president appealed to this conservative subset of Latino voters with anti-socialist messaging that resonated with their past experiences of repression and exile, distorting the moderate slant of Biden's Democratic platform that includes temporary asylum for Venezuelan immigrants that Trump has rejected.
There is a realization across the region that any solution to Venezuela's impasse would have to include economic incentives for Cuba and possibly a mediating role similar to its participation in Colombia's 2016 peace deal.
But coupled with the priority of tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, the Florida-focused domestic political dynamic is likely to inhibit Biden from quickly reopening diplomatic channels to Havana. The Venezuela sanctions framework will probably remain in place as well. But a Biden administration would show more openness toward Venezuela and Cuba on humanitarian grounds, with fewer sticks and more carrots to free political prisoners and introduce democratic reforms.
The Trump administration's controversial shutdown of diesel swaps for Venezuela, for instance, could be lifted, even as a path for negotiations is reopened in line with EU-led efforts. For Cuba, some travel and financial restrictions could be eased.
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Karoon cuts 2024 guidance on lower US output
Karoon cuts 2024 guidance on lower US output
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Australia’s Woodside records weaker Jan-Mar LNG output
Australia’s Woodside records weaker Jan-Mar LNG output
Sydney, 19 April (Argus) — Australian independent Woodside Energy's January-March output dropped against a year earlier and the previous quarter, as reliability fell at its 4.9mn t/yr Pluto LNG project offshore Western Australia. Woodside produced 494,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) across its portfolio for January-March, 5pc below the 522,000 boe/d reported during October-December and 4pc below its 2023 full-year figure of 513,000 boe/d. Lower production at its Bass Strait, Pyrenees and Pluto assets was partially offset by increased production at the 140,000 b/d Mad Dog phase 2 oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico, which hit peak production of 130,000 b/d during the quarter. Reliability at Pluto was 94.6pc for the quarter because of an offshore trip and an onshore electrical fault. Woodside made a final investment decision (FID) on the Xena-3 well to support Pluto production during the quarter. The 16.9mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG achieved 97pc reliability for the quarter with NWS' joint-venture partners taking a FID on the Lambert West field, which will support continuing production. Lower seasonal market demand and offshore maintenance activity saw production drop at the firm's Bass Strait fields, while production ended at the Gippsland basin joint venture's West Kingfish platform because of slowing oil output from Kingfish field. The Pyrenees floating production storage and offloading vessel began planned maintenance in early March and will return to crude production for April-June, Woodside said. Two 550,000 bl cargoes of Pyrenees crude loaded each quarter during 2023. Revenue dropped by 31pc to $2.97bn from $4.33bn a year earlier and 12pc from $3.36bn during October-December. Woodside's total average realised price dipped to $63/boe, 6pc down on the previous quarter's $67/boe and 26pc below the year-earlier figure of $85/boe. Woodside's average realised price for LNG produced was $10.40/mn Btu or 10pc down on the previous quarter's $11.50/mn Btu. The firm is more heavily exposed to spot prices and gas hub pricing than fellow domestic LNG producer Australian independent Santos, with about 30pc of Woodside's equity-produced LNG sold at these spot prices. By Tom Major Woodside LNG production (mn boe) NWS Pluto Wheatstone* Total Jan-Mar '24 8.2 11.8 2.4 22.3 Oct-Dec '23 7.8 12.4 2.5 22.7 Jan-Mar '23 9.7 12.2 2.5 24.3 2023 32.8 45.6 10.2 88.6 2022 29.7 46.2 9.2 85.1 y-o-y % ± -15 -3 -4 -8 q-o-q % ± 5 -5 -4 -2 Source: Woodside *Woodside controls a 13pc interest in Wheatstone LNG Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Wind capacity additions down 93pc under AMLO
Wind capacity additions down 93pc under AMLO
Mexico City, 18 April (Argus) — Mexico installed just 96MW of wind power capacity in 2023, a new low amid President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's policy to limit private sector development. Last year's wind power capacity additions were down by 93pc from the 1,281MW installed during Lopez Obrador's first full year in office in 2019, according to the Global Wind Report 2024 published by the Global Wind Energy Council. New wind power additions were also down by 39pc from the 158MW installed in 2022. Lopez Obrador's statist energy policy has sought to claw back state-owned utility CFE's market position in the face of an enormous private sector clean energy build out launched during the previous administration. Between 2016 and 2018 CFE held three long-term power auctions, contracting 7,000MW of new renewable energy projects as the government made a push to decarbonize Mexico's power matrix. But Lopez Obrador ruled out further auctions and has actively curtailed the award of new generation permits, stalling the development of 5,800MW of wind projects, according to wind energy association Amdee. Mexico has 7,413MW of installed wind capacity, accounting for 8.2pc of the country's 89,890MW total installed generation capacity, according to the energy ministry. Despite the slowed pace in Mexico, new wind installation continued to grow in Latin America last year, led by Brazil with 4.8GW to bring total onshore capacity in the country to 30.4GW in 2023. GWEC expects 28.7GW of new wind capacity in Latin America over the next five years, on top of the 50.6GW of current capacity. Globally 117GW of new wind energy capacity was installed last year, up by 50pc on the previous year and a new record. GWEC expects global wind capacity to double to 2TW by 2030, as governments agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity at the climate talks in Dubai last year. The outlook for Mexican wind power also looks more positive with both presidential candidates in the 2 June election committed to accelerating the energy transition through the build out of new clean energy capacity. Governing party candidate and current frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum pledged to make renewable energy a "hallmark" of her administration and committed this week to investing $13.6bn in clean energy projects if elected. By Rebecca Conan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TUI Cruises receives methanol-ready ship
TUI Cruises receives methanol-ready ship
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