NorthAm unrecoverable auto count ticks up
The number of vehicles that will not be built in North America because of semiconductor and other material shortages ticked up in the last week.
At least 750,000 fewer vehicles are expected to be built at North American factories in 2021 because of material shortages impacting production, according to estimates by AutoForecast Solutions.
That figure is a rise of 50,000 from the week before and is more than triple the 230,000 vehicles the company estimated would be lost as of mid-April.
North American automakers have suffered from supply shortages since January, when many began reporting that a lack of semiconductors — the chips used in many vehicles and personal electronic devices — was forcing them to curtail production.
A February winter storm in Texas exacerbated the issues by shutting down petrochemical production, leading to further shortages of foam and other products used in vehicles.
Kia reported this week that it would cancel its third shift at its Georgia plant for the week of 14-18 June, while Honda continues to report impacts to its North American plants.
Other automakers have made progress toward recovering some production. General Motors (GM) will increase output of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra full-size pickup trucks by 1,000 trucks a month beginning in mid-July. Shipments of the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon midsize pickup trucks will increase by 30,000 units from mid-May through 5 July as vehicles that had been partially built are fully fitted with semiconductors.
Other US-based GM plants will forgo their traditional summer shutdowns.
Ford has multiple shutdowns scheduled to end on 14 June, and says it has no further updates at this time as to whether those closures will continue or not. Some of those plant idlings include production of its best selling and steel- and aluminum-intensive F-150 full-size pickup truck.
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Poland's JSW declares force majeure on coking coal
Poland's JSW declares force majeure on coking coal
Warsaw, 15 April (Argus) — Polish coking coal and met coke producer Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW) declared force majeure on some of its coking coal contracts and cut its output outlook following a fire at its Budryk mine on 5 April. JSW expects production at Budryk mine — which produces premium hard coking coal, semi-soft coking coal, as well as thermal coal grades — to fall by 400,000t than previously planned as a result of the blaze. The fire affected a long wall located at a depth of 1,290m that was planned for closure, but it forced the evacuation of mines from affected areas, the company said. A fire that broke out at the firm's premium hard coking coal-focused Pniowek mine in December last year will also result in greater production loss than previously expected, JSW said. Output at Pniowek will be down by 450,000t from the 350,000t reduction estimated in December. JSW operates four mines in southern Poland. In the first quarter of this year, JSW produced 2.4mn t of coking coal, representing a decline of about 10pc both on the year and on the quarter. JSW's production of coke reached 830,000t in the first quarter of this year, up by 8pc on the year but down by 5pc from the fourth quarter of last year. Metallurgical coke typically accounts for about three-quarters of JSW's total coke output. Its met coke sales significantly exceeded output, reaching 990,000t in the first quarter of this year. JSW last year produced 10.9mn t of coking coal, down by 1pc on the year, and 3.35mn t of coke, up by 4pc on the year. By Tomasz Stepien Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Nippon Steel halts output at Kimitsu plant
Japan’s Nippon Steel halts output at Kimitsu plant
Tokyo, 15 April (Argus) — Japan's largest steel mill Nippon Steel has partially suspended production today at its Kimitsu plant in eastern Chiba prefecture because of operational issues. Nippon Steel suspended production at some of its blast furnaces in the plant on the back of operational issues, said the company, without disclosing further details. The suspension is temporary, a company representative told Argus , although it remains unclear when the plant will resume production. Operational issues can come in a variety of forms, the representative added, including the quality of the raw materials. The firm has not disclosed output volumes at the Kimitsu plant. Nippon Steel's overall crude steel output for the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year is estimated at 35mn t , according to the firm, up by 2.2pc from a year earlier. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
G7 leaders to meet over Iran's attack on Israel
G7 leaders to meet over Iran's attack on Israel
Dubai, 14 April (Argus) — Leaders of the G7 will meet today, 14 April, to co-ordinate a diplomatic response to Iran's overnight air attack on Israel, which ushered a new phase in a six-month conflict that is threatening regional escalation. G7 presidency Italy "has organized a conference at leaders' level for the afternoon of today," Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said on X, formerly Twitter. US President Joe Biden has pledged a co-ordinated G7 diplomatic response and condemned the Iranian assault. Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel on the evening of 13 April, according to the country's state-owned news agency Irna. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace and there were no fatalities reported by Israel. One civilian was injured and an air force base in southern Israel was lightly damaged, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The Iranian attack came in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on the vicinity of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April. Tehran's foreign minster Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considers this to be the end of its operation. But energy markets, which have been supported in recent weeks by a geopolitical risk premium, will face a week of uncertainty about whether Israel will retaliate. The front-month June Ice Brent contract was trading at $90.45/bl before markets closed for the weekend, and hit a more-than five month high of $92.18/bl on Friday, 12 April. Israeli officials said the attack was "a severe and dangerous escalation" from Tehran. Israel's war cabinet is meeting today to discuss a response. "We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us," said cabinet minister Benny Gantz. The US is urging Israel to claim victory for its defence, in an apparent effort to discourage Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government from feeling compelled to retaliate. While noting that Israel ultimately will make the decision as to how to respond, White House national security communications co-ordinator John Kirby, in a televised interview today, hailed what he called Israel's "incredible military achievement" in defending itself against the attack. Very little managed to penetrate the defensive shield, "and the damage was extraordinarily light," he said. The US military played a role in helping to defend against the attack, bringing down "several dozens of drones and missiles," Kirby said. UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said the Royal Air Force shot down "a number of Iranian attack drones". Israel's western allies are urging it to show restraint as they try to prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East, which could directly affect oil producers and send energy prices soaring. President Biden is especially keen to avoid such a scenario in an election year. By Bachar Halabi and David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India's Modi exploits energy to boost poll support
India's Modi exploits energy to boost poll support
Short-term support for key election constituencies could weigh on longer-term energy policy priorities, writes Rituparna Ghosh Mumbai, 12 April (Argus) — Energy issues are taking a starring role in India's forthcoming election, less because of what is at stake in terms of long-term policy and more because of how the government of prime minister Narendra Modi is using voter-friendly initiatives to try and secure the support of key parts of the electorate. India's federal elections are set to take place over the next two months, and Modi's BJP party holds a comfortable poll lead over a largely disorganised opposition — a lead they hope will translate into an absolute majority for a third consecutive term. But Modi's government is looking to consolidate that support through a number of measures that embrace both traditional and cleaner energy sources. The government has cut retail gasoline and diesel prices after a two-year freeze, and expanded subsidies for LPG — a key cooking fuel for many Indian households. At the same time, it has subsidised ethanol production, providing a boost to Indian farmers, and launched a $9bn programme to promote rooftop solar power. The 2 rupees/litre ($3.80/bl) cut in fuel pump prices is the most eye-catching move so far, and the most blatant pre-election bribe — it was unveiled just two days before India's election rules prevented the government from making any further new policy announcements. These measures may help Modi secure a third term, but they could also create problems for his next administration in areas of energy security, foreign investment and energy transition. Freezing over The two-year fuel price freeze that preceded the recent cut was the longest in India's history, suspending previous reforms that allowed prices to fluctuate in line with movements in global oil markets. Price controls on diesel and gasoline had been lifted in October 2014, but the government has frequently interfered with pump prices — especially prior to state and federal polls — through the country's state-controlled oil marketing companies — state-run firms, led by Indian Oil, control 90pc of India's fuel market. The two-year freeze began in May 2022, when international crude prices reached $120/bl following Russia's invasion of Ukraine three months earlier, sending Indian pump prices to record highs. Modi's government has also played some other familiar vote-winning cards. LPG subsidies have long been exploited by Indian politicians to win favour with voters, and the BJP increased these subsidies by more than fivefold in its 2023-24 budget — to $1.5bn from $273mn — to boost access to LPG and reduce cooking gas prices for poorer households. Around 322mn Indian households use LPG, but domestic consumption has plateaued at around 28mn t/yr in recent years. LPG subsidies have been maintained at $1.5bn in the 2024-25 budget. The extra funds announced last month enabled the government to extend by one year, to April 2025, a Rs300 ($3.60) LPG cylinder subsidy for poor households, in addition to implementing a general Rs100 price cut for a 14.2kg LPG cylinder to Rs503. Access to LPG has already been vastly expanded by Modi's Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana programme for women in poorer households, launched during his first term in 2015. The scheme has enabled 100mn poor, rural households to secure access to LPG, helping them switch away from harmful biomass such as wood and reducing the incidence of respiratory disease among rural women. The LPG subsidies are aimed at the rural poor, but Modi's government is framing its enthusiastic support for ethanol and biofuels to woo a different constituency — farmers in the politically powerful states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New Delhi is promoting ethanol for blending with gasoline and has set a 20pc blending target by 2025. This move could improve India's energy security and trade balance by reducing its dependence on imported crude, which meets around 88pc of its crude needs. The government estimates it saved $2.7bn by blending ethanol into gasoline in 2021-22, and blending in the three months to January 2024 reached 11pc. But more importantly, particularly with an election looming, biofuels are additional sources of revenue for both farmers and distillers. Ethanol in India is derived primarily from sugar cane, which makes it politically sensitive. India's sugar cane industry is the second-largest in the world after Brazil, and sugar cane farmers are an important voting block — Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are the biggest producing states and played a major role in Modi's re-election in 2019. Farmers in these states previously faced regular late payments from sugar distillers, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars outstanding. But the additional income that sugar mills now generate from ethanol has allowed them to catch up on these arrears, oil minister Hardeep Puri says. The government has also promoted solar power to households, under a $9bn rooftop solar plan that aims to install solar panels in 10mn households. New Delhi is offering a 60pc subsidy on the entire system cost, with loans available to cover the balance. The proposed scheme may add 30GW of solar power capacity through residential rooftop solar panels, an area where India has lagged behind. Longer-term costs The current focus on voter-friendly energy policies comes at a cost. Longer-term objectives relating to energy security — specifically strategic petroleum storage — energy transition and foreign investment have received less attention. Budget allocations to state-run oil companies for energy transition investments have been halved in the current fiscal year, to $1.8bn, and actual disbursement of these funds has been postponed until the 2024-25 fiscal year. The government in November scrapped its plans to buy $603mn of crude to fill its strategic underground storage, after providing for such outlays in the 2023-24 budget, and it has not made any allocation for refilling strategic stocks in its 2024-25 budget. New Delhi is also facing delays in building the 6.5mn t second phase of its strategic petroleum reserve, owing to challenges with funding and the potential role of foreign partners. It initially wanted to build the reserve on its own but subsequently sought third parties to help with funding. It has now invited bids to build India's first commercial strategic storage, comprising 2.5mn t of underground storage at Padur in Karnataka at a cost of $700mn, with state-controlled Saudi Aramco and the UAE's state-owned Adnoc. Discussions begin this week. India will need to resolve and make progress on these issues, given its aspiration to join Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA, whose rules stipulate that members must hold strategic oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of net imports. The Indian reserve's first phase offers 5.33mn t of storage capacity across three sites, equivalent to only seven days of crude demand, government documents indicate. On foreign investment, India's demand potential is helping attract investors to green energy, to the tune of $6bn over April 2020-September 2023, power minister RK Singh told the Indian parliament in December. But the country's chronic inability to lure investors into oil and gas remains a problem, particularly in light of Modi's ambitions of making India an economic superpower to rival China. Foreign investment in India's oil and gas sector reached a record $806mn in 2019-20, before the Covid-19 pandemic, oil ministry data show. But it plunged to just $56mn in 2021-22 and to $108mn in 2022-23, representing a nugatory 0.2pc of total foreign direct investment flows into the country. Foreign investment in exploration totalled just $16mn in 2022-23, while investment in refining was nil. Indian ethanol blending FDI in Indian oil and gas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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