<article><p class="lead">The Opec+ coalition's two largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, can raise crude output to 9.6mn b/d in August and 9.704mn b/d in September, according to quotas seen by <i>Argus</i>.</p><p>Both countries can lift production by just over 100,000 b/d in each of the two months, as outlined in an Opec+ internal document (see table for full August and September group quotas).</p><p>This follows the 18 July approval by Opec+ for a collective 400,000 b/d output increase in each month of the August 2021-April 2022 period, and then of a rise of around 432,000 b/d from May next year until the group's cuts are unwound by the end of 2022. This includes a three-month window in which the group can pause these increases in response to any change in the fundamental outlook.</p><p>As of next May, the baseline levels that determine individual countries' output targets and compliance will be raised for five participants — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Kuwait.</p><p>Opec+ will hold regular ministerial meetings that will approve or adjust the 400,000 b/d monthly rises, and will meet on 1 September to decide quotas beyond that month, a delegate said.</p><p>The latest Opec+ policy was agreed following a two-week impasse, leaving deal participants with just under two weeks to adjust their August export or refinery-use programmes to accommodate the higher output. But the small pro-rata distribution of the increase will probably see some of the additional crude head into storage. More than half of the deal's participants will raise production by or under 10,000 b/d next month — not enough to accumulate a standard-size 600,000 bl export cargo. Mideast Gulf producers had allocated their August-loading supplies in the first half of July, although Russia's more-prompt loading schedule releases may have allowed for higher output to be reflected in exports. A loading programme circulated today shows exports of Urals and Siberian Light crude <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2237719">higher by 8pc</a> on the month in August. </p><p>Saudi Arabia faces sharply higher crude-burn requirements to meet air conditioning needs in the summer moths. Riyadh saw its highest level of direct crude burn of 2020, at 702,000 b/d, in August, according to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi).</p><p class="bylines">By Ruxandra Iordache</p><p><table class='tbl-excel'><tr><td class='tbl-header' colspan='4'>Opec+ quotas</td><td class='tbl-header tbl-right tbl-italic'>mn b/d</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-columnheader tbl-bold tbl-left'>Country</td><td class='tbl-columnheader tbl-bold tbl-right'>Baseline</td><td class='tbl-columnheader tbl-bold tbl-right'>July target</td><td class='tbl-columnheader tbl-bold tbl-right'>August target</td><td class='tbl-columnheader tbl-bold tbl-right'>September target</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-rowspace' colspan='5'></td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Saudi Arabia</td><td class='tbl-right'>11.000</td><td class='tbl-right'>9.495</td><td class='tbl-right'>9.600</td><td class='tbl-right'>9.704</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Iraq</td><td class='tbl-right'>4.653</td><td class='tbl-right'>4.016</td><td class='tbl-right'>4.061</td><td class='tbl-right'>4.105</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Kuwait</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.809</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.425</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.451</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.478</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>UAE</td><td class='tbl-right'>3.168</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.735</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.765</td><td class='tbl-right'>2.795</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Algeria</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.057</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.912</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.922</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.932</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Nigeria</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.829</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.579</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.596</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.614</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Angola</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.528</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.319</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.333</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.348</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Congo (Brazzaville)</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.325</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.281</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.284</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.287</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Gabon</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.187</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.161</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.163</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.165</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Equatorial Guinea</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.127</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.110</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.111</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.112</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left tbl-bold'>Opec total</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>26.683</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>23.033</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>23.286</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>23.540</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Russia</td><td class='tbl-right'>11.000</td><td class='tbl-right'>9.495</td><td class='tbl-right'>9.600</td><td class='tbl-right'>9.704</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Mexico</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.753</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.753</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.753</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.753</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Oman</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.883</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.762</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.771</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.779</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Azerbaijan</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.718</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.620</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.627</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.633</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Kazakhstan</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.709</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.475</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.491</td><td class='tbl-right'>1.508</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Malaysia</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.595</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.514</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.519</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.525</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Bahrain</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.205</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.177</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.179</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.181</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Brunei</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.102</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.088</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.089</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.090</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>Sudan</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.075</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.065</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.065</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.066</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left'>South Sudan</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.130</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.112</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.113</td><td class='tbl-right'>0.115</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left tbl-bold'>Non-Opec total</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>17.170</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>13.308</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>13.454</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>13.601</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-left tbl-bold'>Opec+ total</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>43.853</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>36.341</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>36.740</td><td class='tbl-right tbl-bold'>37.141</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-footer tbl-right tbl-italic' colspan='5'>Source: OPEC document</td></tr><tr><td class='tbl-notes tbl-left tbl-italic' colspan='5'>*Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempted from cuts under the current deal</td></tr></table></p></article>