Agreste cuts French wheat and corn estimates

French ministry agency Agreste has cut back its estimates for France's 2022-23 soft wheat crop in its October report after raising expectations in September, while corn production forecasts are expected to fall further.

French soft wheat production is now forecast at 33.69mn t on both lower yields and areas, representing a drop of 432,000t from September's estimates. This brings the country's wheat crop close to earlier expectations in August, before Agreste made a slight upwards revision in September.

Soft wheat yields remained higher on the year but areas were down by 6pc on the previous crop.

High yields in the north of France — yields in the region Hauts-de-France are more than a quarter above the national average — have lowered the protein content of an otherwise good-quality crop, but could allow export prices at ports of Rouen and Dunkerque to compete internationally as Black Sea prices rise.

In contrast, wheat for delivery to La Pallice in the west has this week showed a €7/t premium to ports further north. Local exporters are reportedly struggling to source wheat with a test weight high enough to meet buyer specifications, even though average protein content in the region is relatively high.

Corn projections could fall further

Agreste trimmed its corn forecast to 11.44mn t, compared with 11.61mn t in last month's report, but remained out of step with other analysts expecting lower figures. Halfway into the harvest in late-September, Agreste pegged yields at their lowest since 2005, with irrigated corn yields falling 7pc below the five-year average and non-irrigated 16pc below.

The agency anticipates a further drop in corn production estimates as harvesting nears completion and the share diverted into silage becomes clear. The Europe-wide shortage of silage has already led some farmers to divert part of the corn crop and reduce the acreages for threshing.

Durum wheat, barley revised down, rapeseed unchanged

Agreste's latest forecasts pegged durum wheat at 1.35mn t, only marginally below its September's estimate, but down by 15pc on the year.

Similarly low production in the EU's other top durum producer Italy is due to further tighten global supply, with Canadian sellers reportedly stepping in to fill recent demand from Algeria.

Meanwhile on French barley, production estimates fell to 11.39mn t from 11.43mn t a month earlier, but remained only marginally below last year. Winter barley fared markedly better than the spring crop, which suffered heat stress and yielded a smaller crop in almost all regions.

In contrast, Agreste made little change to its 2022-23 production estimate for French rapeseed of 4.51mn t, which benefited from favourable weather and rose sharply on the year.

Recent wet weather in parts of Europe has also improved the outlook for next season's crop, according to Agreste, with rapeseed planting off to a particularly strong start. That said, dry soil in northern parts of the continent and high humidity in southern Poland are unlikely to favour current planting.

By Claudia Jackson