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US light vehicle sales slowed in March

  • Market: Crude oil, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 04/04/23

The pace of US light vehicle sales slowed for a second month in March, weighed down by easing sales of both light trucks and autos.

Total sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14.8mn vehicles in March from 15mn vehicles in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Total sales hit a recent peak of a 16mn unit pace in January, the highest since May 2021.

Light truck sales slowed to a pace of 11.8mn in March from 12mn in February and auto sales fell to a 2.98mn unit annual pace in March from 3mn the prior month.

The pace of total light vehicles sales in March still exceeded the year-earlier rate of 13.6mn vehicles. Light truck sales in March compared with a 10.8mn unit pace a year earlier, while auto sales compared with a 2.7mn unit rate a year earlier.

Supply of autos for sale have been squeezed by shortages of semi conductors and other spare parts, while surging inflation and rising lending rates have prompted many consumers to hold off on auto purchases as economists have warned the economy may be headed for a recession.

Still, availability of semiconductor chips has improved over the past few months but is still not back to normal, pre-pandemic levels, according to a recent report by AutoForecast Solutions.

"There is light at the end of this particular tunnel, but the industry has a distance to travel before we get out," an AutoForecast analyst said this week.

AutoForecast Solutions still expects a production deficit of 2.83mn US vehicles in 2023 because of missing chips.


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19/09/24

Brazil hikes import tax on polymers, chemicals

Brazil hikes import tax on polymers, chemicals

Sao Paulo, 19 September (Argus) — Brazil's government increased import taxes of 30 polymers and chemicals to 20pc from 12.6pc this week, including polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Another 32 chemical products remain under evaluation by Gecex, the Brazilian committee for commercial trade management. With the 18 September decision, most rates will rise and will remain at this level for 12 months. Domestic manufacturers and chemical industries associations welcomed the decision, arguing that the measure will help level the playing field against foreign competitors who benefit from lower production costs. Brazil's chemical industry association Abiquim has been asking the government provide commercial protections for 62 products since May. Supporters of the tax hike, including Abiquim, say it will help create jobs and strengthen Brazil's domestic economy. They also said that the increased revenue from the higher taxes can be reinvested in infrastructure and public services, further benefiting the country. Brazilian petrochemical major Braskem said Thursday that it sees the tax increase as a positive step towards ensuring fair competition and fostering growth within the industry. Braskem produces basic chemicals, PE, PP and PVC. The most important aspect of the tax increase is not the number of products covered, but what it represents in value, said Abiquim's executive president Andre Passos Cordeiro. "These 30 products that were approved represent about 65pc of the import volume of this set of 62 products that we had proposed to the government," he said. "They also represent 75pc of the value of this same set of imports. The decision is welcome, well-founded technically, and brings relief to the chemical industry." The share of chemical imports in the Brazilian market soared in the last 20 years, according to Abiquim, reaching 47pc in 2023 from 21pc in 2000. In the first half of this year, the sector's trade deficit was close to $23bn, while the national industry's idle capacity reached its worst level ever. "We were losing strength with the closure of factories and loss of jobs," Cordeiro said. "I reiterate that the government's decision was essential for us, as an industry and as Brazilians. A strong industry presupposes a strong country." The Brazilian chemical industry is responsible for around 11pc of Brazil's GDP, according to Cordeiro Taxes could up consumer costs Critics of the tax hikes say they will increase costs for consumers and manufacturers who rely on imported polymers and chemicals. Brazil's plastic industry association Abiplast said it was concerned that the higher import taxes will increase production costs for plastic products, which could result in higher prices for end consumers. In a letter to associates, Abiplast said that the measure could hurt small- and medium-sized enterprises that do not have the same capacity as larger companies to absorb the increased costs. The tax hike could also negatively impact the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the global market, Abiplast said. By increasing the cost of raw materials, Brazilian plastic converters may find it more challenging to compete with foreign companies that have access to cheaper inputs. That could lead to a decrease in exports and a potential loss of market share internationally. Furthermore, opponents of the tax increase highlight that the measure could have unintended consequences on the broader economy. Higher production costs could lead to inflationary pressures, affecting the purchasing power of Brazilian consumers. They also point out that the tax increase may not necessarily lead to the desired boost in domestic production, as the domestic industry may not have the capacity to meet the increased demand for polymers and chemicals. The letter, signed by the chairman of the association's board Jose Ricardo Roriz Coelho, also said that despite exhaustive explanations to the government about the taxes' downsides, final approval [of the tax hike] still goes through Brazil's partners in trade bloc Mercosur — Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. If validated, the measure is expected to go into effect in October and last for one year. Abiplast said it will continue battling to reverse the measure, which the association deems unreasonable. Higher domestic prices may follow The market is taking some notice of the new proposed measures. One US polymers exporter to Brazil told Argus that if the tax hike becomes effective, Brazilian polymers manufacturers are expected to immediately raise prices to recover their margins. "The timing for the tax hike announcement was fine-tuned to let local producers secure additional margins in a time that sales are expected to increase in Brazil due to Christmas and New Year celebrations," one market participant told Argus. But any drop in polymer imports into Brazil from the taxes should recover in he beginning of next year, the source said. "Brazil's polymers production is not enough to address local demand, so imports will always be needed," the source said. Brazil's January-August PE imports surged by 45pc from the same period in 2023, reaching almost 1.4mn metric tonnes. North America had a 79pc share, while South America had another 10pc. The country also buys from Asia and the Middle East. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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LNG-burning vessels well positioned ahead of 2025


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

LNG-burning vessels well positioned ahead of 2025

New York, 19 September (Argus) — Vessels outfitted with dual-fuel LNG-burning engines are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025 when the EU will tighten its marine EU emissions trading system (ETS) regulations and add a new regulation, " FuelEU", from 1 January 2025. Considering both regulations, at current price levels, fossil LNG (also known as grey LNG) will be priced the cheapest compared with conventional marine fuels and other commonly considered alternative fuels such as biodiesel and methanol. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. The FuelEU GHG intensity maximum is set at 85.69 grams of CO2-equivalent per MJ (gCO2e/MJ) from 2030 to 2034, dropping to 77.94 gCO2e/MJ in 2035. Vessel pools exceeding the FuelEU's limits will be fined €2,400/t ($2,675/t) of very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLFSO) energy equivalent. GHG emissions from grey LNG vary depending on the type of marine engine used to burn the LNG, but ranges from about 76.3-92.3 gCO2e/MJ, according to non-governmental environmental lobby group Transport & Environment. This makes a number of LNG-burning, ocean-going vessels compliant with FuelEU regulation through 2034. The EU's ETS for marine shipping commenced this year and requires that ship operators pay for 40pc of their GHG generated on voyages within, in and out of the EU. Next year, the EU ETS emissions limit will increase to 70pc. Even with the added 70pc CO2 emissions cost, US Gulf coast grey LNG was assessed at $639/t VLSFOe, compared with the second cheapest VLSFO at $689/t, B30 biodiesel at $922/t and grey methanol at $931/t VLSFOe average from 1-18 September (see chart). "In 2025, we expect [US natural gas] prices to rise as [US] LNG exports increase while domestic consumption and production remain relatively flat for much of the year," says the US Energy Information Administration. "We forecast the Henry Hub price to average around $2.20/million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2024 and $3.10/mmBtu in 2025." Provided that prices of biodiesel and methanol remain relatively flat, the projected EIA US 2025 LNG price gains would not affect LNG's price ranking, keeping it the cheapest alternative marine fuel option for ship owners traveling between the US Gulf coast and Europe. LNG for bunkering global consumption from vessels 5,000 gross tonnes and over reached 12.9mn t in 2023, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), up from 11mn t in 2022 and 12.6mn t in 2021. The maritime port authority of Singapore reported 111,000t of LNG bunker sales and the port authorities of Rotterdam and Antwerp reported 319,000t in 2023 from all size vessels. Among vessels 5,000 gross tonnes and over, LNG carriers accounted for 89pc of LNG bunker demand globally, followed by container ships at 3.6pc, according to the IMO. The large gap between LNG global and LNG Singapore, Rotterdam, and Antwerp bunker demand, is likely the result of most of the demand taking place at the biggest LNG export locations where LNG carriers call, such as the US Gulf coast, Qatar, Australia, Russia and Malaysia. By Stefka Wechsler USGC bunkers and bunker alternatives $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US court asked for third Citgo auction extension


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

US court asked for third Citgo auction extension

Houston, 19 September (Argus) — The court-appointed special master overseeing the auction of US refiner Citgo has asked the court to delay the announcement of a successful bidder to 26 September and a sale hearing to December. Special master Robert Pincus planned to make an announcement of the proposed buyer on or about 16 September followed by a November sale hearing, but last minute legal challenges derailed what have otherwise been "robust negotiations with a bidder," according to a court filing today. "The special master is continuing to negotiate sale documentation with a bidder," today's motion said. Pincus previously requested a second extension in August and a first extension in late July . By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK's RJH ceases trading, merges with Amalgamet


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

UK's RJH ceases trading, merges with Amalgamet

London, 19 September (Argus) — London-based minor metals firm RJH Trading (RJH) will cease its trading operations and all business will be transferred to Amalgamet Limited, Argus learnt today. Starting from 1 October, Amalgamet — the physical trading arm of non-ferrous metals at UK-based AMC Group — will take over the management of all RJH operations. Amalgamet is hiring the team from RJH, including Charles Swindon, the founder and managing director of RJH and former chairman of the Minor Metals Trade Association (MMTA), who will work as a consultant. Senior RJH traders in Scandinavia and India will trade for Amalgamet. Amalgamet, also headquartered in London, aims to expand further into more high-growth metals and take advantage of trading a greater diversity of metals and concentrates, both parties told Argus . Amalgamet mainly supplies base and minor metals, and through the merger will add new products that RJH has been trading for years including ferro-alloys such as ferro-chrome, ferro-silicon and other minor metals such as magnesium. For several metals including antimony there will be a crossover, as both trading firms have positions in the market. Charles Swindon told Argus the mix of the two portfolios is a good match and added that it is important to spread risk at a moment of geopolitical fragmentation. "This [partnership] brings over 100 years of invaluable trading experience in all metals as well as new opportunities in all parts of the world," he said. The financial details of the transaction have not been disclosed. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Small private Libyan firm exports oil through blockade


19/09/24
News
19/09/24

Small private Libyan firm exports oil through blockade

London, 19 September (Argus) — A small Libyan private firm appears to have been granted an exemption from an oil blockade, which has more than halved the country's exports. Arkenu Oil, which describes itself as a private oil and gas development and production firm, is scheduled to export 1mn bl of Sarir and Mesla crude from Marsa el-Hariga to Italy's Trieste on the Maran Poseidon, according to an official document seen by Argus . The tanker has been chartered by Turkish trader BGN and is currently loading its cargo. This is the first Arkenu shipment set to be exported since the country's eastern-based administration ordered a blockade on oil fields and terminals on 26 August in response to an attempt by its rival administration in the west to replace the central bank governor. It is also Arkenu's third known shipment since July. Arkenu exported a 1mn bl cargo on the Zeus on 10 July and another 1mn barrel cargo on the Yasa Polaris on 16 August, according to official documents and ship-tracking data. These were also Sarir and Mesla grade. Arkenu's exports are significant given that crude sales have historically been the preserve of NOC and a handful of international oil firms that hold stakes in the country's upstream such as Eni, TotalEnergies and OMV. Arkenu, which is based in the eastern city of Benghazi, is supposedly able to export its own crude based on an agreement with NOC which allocates it an unspecified share of production from its subsidiary Agoco's Sarir and Mesla fields in return for carrying out work to boost output at the sites. But there remain questions related to the legality of the deal, the nature of the work Arkenu is supposed to be carrying out and the company's technical capabilities. The three known Arkenu cargoes are worth around $240mn at prevailing market rates, Argus estimates. There has been no increase to Agoco's production capacity since the Arkenu deal was struck, one Libyan oil industry source said. Sarir and Mesla accounted for most of Agoco's roughly 280,000 b/d output in 2023. Arkenu and NOC have yet to reply to a request for comment. "The Haftar family is deliberately and selectively allowing crude exports that generate dollars outside the Libyan state, and they are doing so within the context of a blockade they imposed," said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist at the UK's Royal United Services Institute. "While the Libyan state struggles to figure out how to import food and medicine next month owing to the central bank crisis, the Haftars' strange oil blockade permits crude exports that profit a private Libyan entity," Harchaoui added. The leadership crisis at the central bank has degraded Libya's ability to carry out international financial transactions. "The only beneficiary from these Mesla and Sarir sales is an unknown private Libyan company with an account in Switzerland and the UAE, with zero dollars being deposited in the state," the oil industry source added. General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) controls the country's east and southwest and is the real force behind the blockade. Haftar is understood to be allowing some exports to continue as long as these revenues do not reach the central bank in Tripoli, which is controlled by the rival administration in the west. Libya's crude exports have averaged 410,000 b/d so far this month, according to Kpler. While this is well below pre-blockade levels of around 1mn b/d, it is well above levels seen in some past blockades. Rising exports in recent days suggests Libya's total crude production has picked up from an earlier Argus estimate of around 300,000 b/d to possibly around 500,000 b/d. Libya was producing 1mn b/d before the blockade. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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