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TTF front month drops on ceasefire, holds above winter
TTF front month drops on ceasefire, holds above winter
London, 8 April (Argus) — Near-term prices at the Dutch TTF gas hub fell in today's morning trading session on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran and efforts to resume LNG production in Qatar. The front-month price opened at €42.90/MWh, 18pc lower than the previous day's close, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire of attacks . The price then rose above €45/MWh as traders corrected their positions, after the initial TTF open was seen as too low, market participants told Argus . The front-month contract then plunged at 13:15 BST on Bloomberg news that QatarEnergy was mobilising efforts to resume and ramp up LNG production at Ras Laffan, prompted by the ceasefire announcement, and the possibility of reopening the strait of Hormuz. Trump said he would "suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks", subject to co-operation from Iran. Iranian foreign affairs minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that "for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the strait of Hormuz will be possible via co-ordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations". The front-month contract stood at €43.425/MWh at the time of writing, its lowest since 27 February, but well above the €31.51/MWh on 27 February — the day before the conflict started. But despite the reduced prices pointing to a potential easing of supply, it is unclear whether the US and Iran will honour their agreement, as the US has already bombed an Iranian oil refinery since the ceasefire was announced. The TTF May price has dropped the most of any contract, as keeping the passage via Hormuz open in the coming two weeks could allow LNG cargoes to arrive to Europe from May at the earliest. And even if the cargoes were delivered to Asia, stronger supply in the Pacific could reduce that region's appetite for Atlantic basin spot cargoes, in turn leaving more of this LNG available for Europe. Winter price remains at a discount to summer months The ceasefire news weighed more heavily on contracts for summer delivery than on the winter 2026-27 price. A potential return of LNG supply transiting the strait of Hormuz to the global balance would result in more available supply in Europe over the summer. That said, the supply outlook for this summer remains tight because of competition with Asia during Qatar's production ramp-up and structurally lower LNG output from Ras Laffan due to earlier attacks. And it is unclear if the ceasefire will extend past the two-week mark. That said, summer contracts' premiums to the coming winter have narrowed throughout today's session, with the May-winter 2026-27 spread narrowing by about €0.70/MWh from the previous close ( see table ). The EU has net injected 614 GWh/d over 1-7 April, and storage sites stood at 28.8pc full. Storage sites entered the gas summer at its lowest fill level since 2022, and have to be 90pc full by 1 October-1 December to meet EU-mandated filling targets. Abundant LNG supply over the rest of the summer could aid the filling task, and alleviate some of the pressure on the summer months' contracts. Further out, the 2027 contract was at €35.84/MWh at about 14:00 BST, 12pc lower than on Tuesday's close at €40.905/MWh. This could point to easing concerns over tight supply over coming years. The 2028-30 yearly contracts also fell, but the fall was less stark. By Alejandro Moreano Summer month-winter spreads €/MWh Contracts Argus close on 7 April Ice trading on 8 April* May-winter 2026-27 1.380 0.683 June-winter 2026-27 1.470 0.853 July-winter 2026-27 1.435 1.015 August-winter 2026-27 1.355 0.848 September-winter 2026-27 1.245 0.848 *closest spread taken at the time of writing — Intercontinental exchange (Ice), Argus TTF trading on 8 April €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil expects first CGOB issuance in May
Brazil expects first CGOB issuance in May
Sao Paulo, 7 April (Argus) — Brazil's hydrocarbon regulator ANP expects the first issuance of biomethane guarantee-of-origin certificates (CGOBs) to take place in May, a milestone that would trigger compliance obligations under the Fuel of the Future law. Speaking at a panel during the I-REC Day Brazil event in Sao Paulo on Tuesday, ANP director Maria Auxiliadora Nobre said 2026 obligations will be adjusted to reflect the timing of the first issuance. Instead of applying the annual mandate in full, the target will be calculated on a pro-rata basis, meaning only the remaining months of the year after the first CGOB issuance will count toward compliance. Under this structure, CGOB demand in 2026 is expected to be lower than under a full-year mandate, aligning compliance volumes with initial supply availability. Nobre said the agency will formally notify the market once the issuance platform is fully operational. The panel also discussed how the timing of the first issuance could shape early supply-and-demand dynamics and delay price formation. Luis Felipe Poli, business development manager for gas and energy at Petrobras, said buyers already see economic value in the environmental attribute associated with gas, although clearer pricing signals are expected only once issuance begins. On the supply side, Tayane Vieira, head of ESG and government relations at biomethane producer Gas Verde, said 2026 is likely to be a transition year, with market participants testing volumes, certification procedures and demand patterns as the regulated market starts operating alongside voluntary schemes. From the demand perspective, Adrianno Lorenzon, natural gas director at industrial consumers' association Abrace Energia, cautioned that the regulated mandate should not crowd out voluntary demand in the early phase, warning that distortions could affect liquidity and price discovery. Luciano Figueredo, project manager at certification body Instituto Totum, said discussions around certificate fungibility and differentiation by carbon intensity could initially fragment liquidity, with pricing premiums only emerging once trading gains scale. The panel concluded that, while regulatory uncertainty remains, the first CGOB issuance will mark the shift from policy design to market execution, with early prices likely reflecting limited supply and cautious demand from obligated parties. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Western Australia's LNG projects restart production
Western Australia's LNG projects restart production
Sydney, 31 March (Argus) — Western Australia's (WA) off line LNG projects are restarting some domestic gas production, while the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) is assessing damage from category 4 tropical cyclone Narelle, which passed through the region late last week. The ports of Dampier and Ashburton have been checked over, with structural damage to Dampier's general cargo import facilities, rendering the wharf inoperable, PPA said on 31 March. The bulk liquids terminal is operable, PPA said, meaning fuel imports for the region's major iron ore mines is unaffected. Ashburton port has also suffered damage to its general cargo wharf and this remains closed, with engineering teams looking over the facilities during the next few days. The port of Varanus Island — a central gathering and processing hub for oil, gas and condensate supplied by nearby fields, including those operated by Australian independent Santos — has reopened with no impacts to operations, PPA said. LNG projects recovering The region's affected LNG projects are slowly returning to production after Narelle took two major plants, the 14.3mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) and 8.9mn t/yr Wheatstone terminals, off line late last week . NWS' Karratha gas plant will be producing at 300 TJ/d and Wheatstone at 20 TJ/d on 1 April, indicating that some volumes are returning on line, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator's WA gas bulletin board, which measures domestic flows. Wheatstone may take weeks to return to full capacity, Chevron has said, while it returned one train at the 15.6mn t/yr Gorgon LNG terminal, which was taken off line during the cyclone to service on 29 March. The disruption to supply comes during an already tight supply balance in the Pacific basin, with Qatar's 64.2mn t/yr Ras Laffan terminal pausing production on 2 March due to the US-Iran war. Domestic gas flows fell from 1,202 TJ/d on 24 March to 558 TJ/d on 29 March due to Narelle's impacts, forcing alumina refineries run by US producer Alcoa to slash output temporarily . By Tom Major Argus LNG prices ($/mn Btu) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update 2
US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update 2
Updates with details from final regulatory text New York, 27 March (Argus) — The US will require record-high biofuel use over the next two years, boosting soybean farmers and alternative diesel producers at the expense of oil refiners that warned of higher pump prices. Oil refiners will have to bring billions more gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel to market in 2026 and 2027, according to new blend requirements released by President Donald Trump's administration Friday. The mandates for biomass-based diesel this year alone are more than 60pc above targets in the category last year, the biggest annual step change in program history. The requirements come as Trump and Republicans in Congress see more support for biofuels as one way to help farmers hurt by trade wars and rising input costs. They also come at the same time as war in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of oil products, raising interest in alternatives like biofuels. Requiring "the highest volumes of renewable fuels in history" will create rural jobs and "massively increase our nation's energy supply", Trump said at a White House event. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. Traders expecting high quotas had already boosted the price of RINs — and key renewable diesel inputs like soybean oil — to multiyear highs this week. Friday's final rule includes a record-high mandate of 26.81bn RINs from total renewable fuel blending in 2026 and 27.02bn RINs in 2027, though fewer RINs per gallon next year for some fuels mean those future requirements are even more ambitious than they first appear. EPA sets total blend requirements and requires that a portion come from lower-carbon "advanced" biofuel types including biomass-based diesel. A gallon of corn ethanol generates one RIN, while more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel earn more. Other updates show the Trump administration siding clearly with farmers over refiners. Larger oil companies, for instance, will have to blend more biofuels to offset the demand hit from recently generous program exemptions for some small refining rivals. Spread over the next two years, the added mandate of more than 2bn RINs equals around 70pc of biofuel volumes expected to be exempted from 2023-2025 blend quotas, higher than other options EPA considered. The administration did punt an earlier plan to penalize imports, which would have been one of the most substantial and legally contested reforms in program history. While the final rule includes few more details, EPA expects to implement some version of that provision — which could mean foreign biofuels and feedstocks receive half the RINs as domestic product — starting in 2028. Farm groups have pushed regulators to do more to restrict inputs that compete with US crops, including recycled cooking oil that major renewable diesel plants bring in from countries like China. Refiners had lobbied the administration this month to shift course, warning that higher mandates would spill into retail fuel prices already rising because of war in the Middle East. With affordability concerns top of mind for voters ahead of this year's midterm elections, the possibility of higher food and fuel prices presents political risk for Republicans. "It's baffling, with fuel prices already rising due to the conflict in Iran, that EPA is finalizing a rule that will make things far worse for consumers", said Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group usually on board with Trump's energy policy. The mandates are certain to draw legal challenges, potentially from refiners or environmental groups. But as courts debate the details, the quotas are likely to support continued growth in not just US biofuel production but feedstock processing as well. Crop trading giants like Bunge and Cargill have invested heavily in new soybean and canola crush facilities, hoping to supply more vegetable oils to biofuel plants. Biomass-based diesel wins more than other fuels While the mandates will also support production margins for other biofuels, domestic demand for corn ethanol — the most widely used biofuel in the US — depends more on Congress. Lawmakers have struggled for months to reach a compromise on legislation that would permanently exempt a higher-ethanol gasoline blend from smog rules that currently limit summertime sales. Trump said Friday he was trusting legislative leaders to soon reach a deal. Gasoline stations can continue supplying fuel with up to 15pc ethanol this summer, more than the typical 10pc blend, because of temporary emergency regulations that the Trump administration started issuing this week. But so-called "E15" is still not sold at most US retail outlets. Renewable diesel production capacity in the US, already at record highs and growing, has boomed in part because the biofuel has fewer blend limits. By Cole Martin Final renewable volume obligations bn RINs 2025 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.21 1.36 1.43 Biomass-based diesel 5.36* 9.07 9.20 Advanced biofuel 7.33 11.10 11.32 Total renewable fuel 22.33 26.81 27.02 *2025 biomass-based diesel mandate set in gallons, converted here to RINs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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