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Mexico trade balance swings to surplus in August
Mexico trade balance swings to surplus in August
Mexico City, 29 September (Argus) — Mexico's trade balance swung to a $605mn surplus in August as imports cooled faster than exports. The result, reported Monday by statistics agency Inegi, marks a shift from the $848mn deficit recorded in July, marking a fifth month of surpluses in six months. Inegi said the shift in the balance resulted from a widening of the non-oil trade surplus—which rose to $4.05bn in August from $2.81bn in July—and a smaller oil-related trade deficit, which narrowed from $3.66bn to $3.44bn over the same period. Total exports fell by 4.2pc to $78bn in August from $81.4bn the prior month, with total imports down by 5.9pc to $77.4bn from the prior month. Still, exports were up by 40pc from a year earlier while imports were up by 34pc. The monthly pullback was driven almost entirely by oil, with petroleum exports down by 20.4pc to $1.58bn in August from the prior month. On the oil price context, the Mexican Mix crude price rose to $75.98/bl in August, up $0.86 from July and $13.64 above August 2025, even as crude export volumes fell to 351,000 b/d from 510,000 b/d in July and 594,000 b/d a year earlier. Non-oil exports fell by 3.8pc to $76.4bn. Automotive exports fell by 3.3pc to $15.9bn. Farm exports were down by 12.5pc. Capital goods imports led the decline in imports, falling by 10.5pc to $5bn while intermediate goods imports fell by 5.8pc to $63.3bn, with the petroleum linked share of that down by 7.9pc. Consumption goods fell by 4.2pc to $9.1bn. Mexican exports "will continue to be sustained by the boom in products associated with AI," Banorte said, but trade uncertainty will deepen in coming months as questions mount over the future of the USMCA free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. Mexican deputy economy minister for foreign trade Luis Rosendo Gutierrez said on 23 September the fourth round of US-Mexico bilateral trade discussions, originally scheduled for this week, have been postponed, citing scheduling conflicts tied to an upcoming G20 summit. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s steel boom redraws global coal, coke trade
India’s steel boom redraws global coal, coke trade
Bali, 28 September (Argus) — India's expanding steel industry is set to reshape seaborne metallurgical coal and coke trade, with rising steel capacity driving higher imports while buyers diversify sourcing across Australia, Russia, the US, Mozambique and Indonesia. India's steel production has risen to around 169mn t in 2026 from 104mn t in 2021, while installed capacity has reached about 220mn t, Vasudev Pamnani, director of ¡Energy Natural Resources said at CT Asia 2026. Capacity is expected to approach 300mn t by 2030, creating additional demand for imported steelmaking raw materials. India consumes around 175mn t/yr of coking coal, but domestic supply accounts for only about 20mn t, leaving steelmakers heavily dependent on imports. Total coking coal and PCI imports are projected to reach around 120mn t by 2030, comprising roughly 90mn t of coking coal and 30mn t of PCI. Import sourcing is also shifting. Australia's share of India's coking coal supply has declined as buyers increasingly source from Russia, the US and Mozambique. Russian PCI has gained particularly strongly on competitive pricing and suitable quality. Metallurgical coke is following a similar growth path. India imported around 4mn t in the first seven months of 2026, putting full-year imports on track to reach about 6.5mn t. Imports could remain around 6mn-7mn t by 2030 as steelmakers compare imported coke with the cost of producing coke locally from imported coal. Indonesia has emerged as a key supplier, accounting for around 2.7mn t of India's coke imports in the first seven months of 2026. Competitive pricing, proximity and lower anti-dumping duties relative to some other origins have supported its rapid gains. Indonesia's expanding coke capacity could further reshape regional trade flows and potentially challenge China's position as the world's largest coke exporter. China, meanwhile, remains central to the broader seaborne market, with Shanxi supply disruptions tightening domestic coking coal availability and supporting international prices. For Indian buyers, delivered cost remains the key consideration. Freight, coal quality, blending requirements, anti-dumping duties and the cost of domestic coke production will determine the competitiveness of different origins. India's steel expansion is therefore creating a structural source of demand for seaborne coal and coke, while diversification of supply is opening opportunities for producers across a wider range of origins. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CME EU HRC trade reaches quarterly record
CME EU HRC trade reaches quarterly record
London, 25 September (Argus) — Trading volume on CME Group's European hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures contract reached a record high this quarter, according to Argus records. A total of 478,000t of futures had been traded in the third quarter as of 24 September, exceeding the previous quarterly record. Year-to-date traded volumes now stand at over 1.3m t, with over 400,000t traded each quarter so far this year. The latest quarterly performance reflects growing participation in the contract from steel producers, traders, service centres and end users seeking to hedge price risk amid heightened uncertainty surrounding European steel trade policy and import restrictions. "Third quarter futures volumes increased as some traders took long positions in expectation of prices rising following the imposition of tighter safeguard measures — this thesis was borne out in July but faltered somewhat in August and September, as the reality of low demand constrained physical price increases and weighed on the forward curve," a trader said, adding, "Recent trade has seen some longs rolling forward their exposure from the fourth quarter to the first, given the slower-than-expected physical increase." Since the contracts inception in 2020, annual volumes have risen each year. Current volumes indicate that 2026 is on track to become another record year for the contract if trade continues at a similar pace to the first three quarters. The CME European HRC contract has seen steadily rising participation over recent years as it has become an increasingly important risk-management tool for the region's flat steel market. Activity has been supported by market volatility, shifting trade flows and expectations around changes to EU steel import regulations. "We are seeing a broader mix of physical and financial participants becoming more active, which is helping to deepen liquidity," brokerage FIS' head of steel Robert Belcher said. "There has been an increase in trading, especially on spreads from physical traders, but also on quarter period trades in greater volumes than in the past from banks' end-user customers being the growing trader category in the market," GFI steel derivatives broker Henry Herbert said. By Carlo Da Cas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU steel ETS costs could hit €8.2bn by 2031
EU steel ETS costs could hit €8.2bn by 2031
Brussels, 24 September (Argus) — Europe's steel industry could see annual carbon costs rise from around €3.4bn ($3.9bn) in 2026 to €5.7bn in 2030 and €8.2bn in 2031 under proposed changes to the EU emissions trading system (ETS), European steel association Eurofer said on 24 September. "Free allocation should support decarbonisation investments and, in combination with an effective carbon border adjustment mechanism [CBAM] provide effective carbon leakage protection," the association said. It is seeking changes to the EU's CBAM, calling for a significant slow down in the CBAM factor — the rate at which free allowance allocation is phased out — over the next five years ( see table ). This would compensate for the mechanism's flaws, such as the lack of an export protection solution and resource reshuffling risks, alongside the lack of enabling conditions for decarbonisation investments in the current European and global macro-economic environment, Eurofer said. The lobby group is also calling on the EU to extend beyond 2030 a provision under which the main steel benchmark, hot metal, is based on prevailing blast-furnace technology rather than being reduced significantly under assumptions of a larger share of the low-carbon direct reduced iron (DRI) technology in overall production capacity. Without an extension, the hot metal benchmark value for 2031-35 could fall by as much as 50pc, Eurofer said. The benchmark is used to calculate each sector's free allowance allocations under the ETS. Eurofer is also calling for a structural solution to protect exports from CBAM-covered sectors and downstream industries. "Withdrawing carbon leakage protection too quickly risks undermining the very investments needed to decarbonise," Eurofer director-general Axel Eggert said. Eggert said investment decisions have been taken on around 35mn t/yr of low-carbon steel capacity initially planned to become operational between 2027 and 2032. But projects covering more than 10mn t/yr of steel capacity have stalled as the business case has weakened. The group also proposed that all revenues generated from the phase-out of free allowances for CBAM sectors should be reinvested fully in those sectors. Eurofer estimates carbon costs for conventional blast-furnace steel could reach around €100/t by 2030 and exceed €200/t from 2031, levels it says would render the production route economically unviable. This assumes emission allowance prices at €100/t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2026-30 and at €150/t CO2e in 2031-35, an annual reduction rate of heat and power benchmarks at 2pc, and cross sectoral correction factors in line with scenario "CL 90_50" in the commission's impact assessments from the July ETS review proposal. The association estimates a free allocation shortage of 50pc in 2030, and 76pc in 2031, under the same proposal. The carbon cost estimations also assume that EU steel production is at 130mn t — on par with 2024 levels, and decarbonisation investments are commissioned by 2030 and fully operational as of 2032 — with a capacity of 17mn t of DRI and 36mn t of electric arc furnace steel production capacity. By Dafydd ab Iago Eurofer's proposal for CBAM factor % 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 European Commission's proposal 97.5 95.0 91.5 81.0 59.0 48.0 37.5 27.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 0.0 Eurofer proposal 97.5 95.0 95.0 92.5 90.0 82.0 65.0 50.0 35.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 — Eurofer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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