Phosphates
Overview
The global phosphates market has witnessed increasing volatility, in response to military conflicts, political tensions and changing market dynamics. Price fluctuations have continued to buffet the market, with increasing demand from south and Southeast Asia the main regions driving consumption growth. Rising raw material prices and improved affordability have lifted prices once again.
Phosphates' usage is also not solely limited to fertilizers. Battery-material suppliers are increasingly seeking to source phosphate rock and specialty phosphates-based products to meet the rapidly rising demand for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries for electric vehicle production.
Our extensive phosphates coverage includes DAP, MAP, TSP and SSP, as well as raw materials phosphate rock and phosphoric acid, with assessments also spanning feed products MCP and DCP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the phosphates market and incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including sulphur and ammonia to provide the full market narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Daily and weekly phosphates price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of processed phosphate and phosphate rock prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest phosphate news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global phosphate industry.
US to review Russia, Morocco phos duties in March
US to review Russia, Morocco phos duties in March
Houston, 23 January (Argus) — The US Department of Commerce will begin its review to potentially end antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on certain phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia in March 2026 after years of legal exchanges. Moroccan fertilizer producer OCP and Russian fertilizer producers have been subject to countervailing duties on phosphate exports to the US since 2021, after US fertilizer producer Mosaic filed a petition with authorities alleging the two countries' phosphate imports materially injured the US market. But the upcoming review to determine if revoking the order would lead to reoccurring dumping or material injury opens the possibility of the duties' removal and a transformation in the US phosphate market. The Commerce department in March 2021 imposed a 19.97pc duty on OCP, while Russian producers PhosAgro and EuroChem were subject to duties at 9.19pc and 47.05pc, respectively. But over the course of the last five years, those duties have been altered based on appeals and revisions. In September 2024, Mosaic withdrew its 2023 duty review request against Morocco but did not rescind its request for a review into Russian phosphate import duties. This signaled a possible turning point for the US phosphate industry that later prompted OCP to note its readiness to return to the US , but the following month Commerce raised the final 2022 CVD rate against Morocco, sparking doubts about the return of certain OCP phosphates until they were entirely duty free. But the lack of Moroccan and Russian phosphate in the US fertilizer industry and its impact on fertilizer prices has not gone unnoticed by US lawmakers. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) stated during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in October 2025 that the removal of CVDs against Moroccan phosphate would immediately ease farmer input costs. "This review will obviously be very impactful," one trader said. "Currently the majority of US phosphate sourcing is from east of the Suez, and having the return of the two leading producers west of the Suez would create more market competition." In addition to not having access to Russian or Moroccan supply, the US has had to pay higher freight costs from more distant origins, such as Saudi Arabia and Australia. It takes approximately 15-20 days for a vessel to depart Jorf Lasfar, Morocco, and arrive to New Orleans, while it takes about 35-40 days for vessels that leave Ras Al Khair, Saudi Arabia to reach the US port. The Commerce department is obligated to conduct sunset reviews no later than five years after the antidumping or CVD order is issued, where following the review's initiation the US International Trade Commission (ITC) will set the review schedule and publish information in a Federal Register notice. Relevant parties will be able to file responses discussing the effects of revoking the order under review, and if responses are considered adequate then the ITC usually will complete the full five-year review within 360 days of the start date. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fertistream sees challenging 2026 for phosphates, urea
Fertistream sees challenging 2026 for phosphates, urea
London, 22 January (Argus) — Brazilian fertilizer buyers will continue to look for affordable alternative products to phosphates and nitrogen in 2026, trading firm Fertistream's head of global market intelligence, Milton Sato, told Argus in an interview ahead of the Argus Fertilizer Latino Americano conference in Miami next week. But the lack of Chinese phosphates will limit Brazilian buyers' options. Sato also highlighted the risk of tighter nitrogen supply in Europe following the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Edited highlights follow: In 2025, many Brazilian buyers replaced urea with ammonium sulphate (amsul), and MAP with NPs, SSP and TSP. How do you see this trend in 2026? Driven by an unfavourable grain-to-fertilizer ratio, Brazilian farmers looked for cheaper alternatives to fulfil their nitrogen and phosphates needs. Given that amsul is not subject to Chinese export quotas and that the Chinese cost of production is rather low due to its by-product nature, we expect Chinese amsul exports to remain a prominent nitrogen option. For Brazilian farmers, besides the competitive price, amsul is also a source of sulphate. For phosphates, at least until China returns to the export market — which is unlikely to be earlier than April — Brazilian farmers will have to rely more on other options, such as imported MAP and TSP. SSP supplies are pressured by escalating sulphur costs. Mainly to counter rising sulphur costs, China announced that phosphate exports [will be suspended] until August. But officials may review this decision once the peak domestic season ends in April. As China resumes exports, expect Brazilian farmers to consider the low-concentration NPs as an alternative. SSP imports will also remain on the radar, should prices become more competitive. CBAM came into effect on 1 January in Europe. How will Fertistream and other trading firms deal with CBAM? The level of uncertainty around the CBAM remains high. As such, expect fertilizer traders to maintain a conservative stance to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of a political decision. EU importers began front-loading imports in December, especially urea and UAN. As a result, stocks were filled to the brim. This provided some breathing room for buyers. Assuming no changes to the CBAM rollout in January, EU nitrogen buyers will likely avoid the high CBAM charges on UAN and CAN imports, relying more on locally produced products and, to a lesser extent, urea imports. The ongoing uncertainty is already denting the first-quarter EU imports book, raising the risk of a tight nitrogen market in the upcoming season. What will be the effects if the EU drops standard import duties on urea, as proposed, and what if it also drops standard import duties on phosphates? If the EU drops the most favoured nation (MFN) duties on urea, this will open up more origin options for importers. More specifically, Egypt and Algeria will lose their current exemption advantage, while all other origins, especially those in the Mideast Gulf, will become more competitive. On top of the 6.5pc MFN duty, Russian producers incur an additional duty of €40/t and €45/t for urea and phosphates, respectively, until June. These will rise [steadily] to a hefty €315/t and €430/t, respectively, by 2028, effectively barring Russian imports. As such, expect Russian suppliers to turn to markets elsewhere. The removal of the MFN duties on phosphate imports would increase sourcing options for the EU, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the US, Russia and China. How has Ethiopia's move away from tenders affected the market and is it a model for other African countries to follow? Ethiopia is testing a way to be more responsive to market dynamics instead of being locked in for long-term periods. Private negotiations give countries greater flexibility. Doing a block of six months is not how the rest of the market trades. So there's a mismatch between how the Ethiopian bureaucrat thinks about the market and how the market actually operates. Ethiopia shifted from importing NPs mainly from Morocco's OCP to suddenly wanting DAP, exactly when DAP was rather tight. Not good timing, but they still had private negotiations and became more responsive to market dynamics. So 2025 imports were quite robust at around 1.3mn t. In the global market, which markets are you most optimistic about for growth in the next 3-6 months? The US, India and Australasia will provide liquidity for nitrogen. The CBAM implementation in Europe will support locally produced CAN, urea, and NPKs, and to a lesser extent, imported urea. Chinese exports of amsul and urea are likely to remain strong in 2026. On phosphates, because of the high prices versus grains in the past year, many markets are under-applied. That includes the US and, to some extent, Brazil on high-concentration fertilizers. Also, stocks are very low across these markets. The US needs to replenish stocks ahead of the key spring season. Brazil is also facing low stock levels and concerns about limited SSP and NP supply. India's demand remains very strong because the government is scared of shortages. Sulphur prices climbed in 2025 and remain firm, well above typical levels. To what extent will sulphur be a driver for phosphates prices? The hike in sulphur prices this past year lifted the phosphates production cost across the board, especially for SSP. As a result, sulphur prices set a floor for phosphates, particularly SSP prices. Expect sulphur demand to remain strong given Indonesian nickel production and Chinese demand. As the Ukraine-Russia conflict drags on, the risk of future production disruptions in Russian plants remains. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mosaic extends SSP production halt in Brazil
Mosaic extends SSP production halt in Brazil
London, 21 January (Argus) — US fertilizer producer and exporter Mosaic has suspended its SSP production in Brazil for a further 30 days, the firm said today. Mosaic idled its Fospar, southern Parana state, and Araxa, southeast Minas Gerais state, facilities on 16 December , pinning the decision on a sharp increase in sulphur prices. It said at the time that it could review the decision after 30 days. It has decided to keep the plants off line but "will continue to assess market conditions in the coming weeks", it said. Mosaic does not intend to buy sulphur in Brazil in the near term because of the extended production cuts, it said. Prices for sulphur delivered to Brazilian ports have risen to $540-550/t cfr from $510-515/t cfr at the beginning of December. The latest prices are up by $358/t, or 191pc, at the midpoint from mid-January last year. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indian DAP stocks down, despite lower sales
Indian DAP stocks down, despite lower sales
London, 19 January (Argus) — Indian domestic DAP sales fell further than expected in December to 869,000t, according to latest government data. This is likely because farmers focused their attentions on securing nitrogen. Provisional data in early January had estimated offtake last month at 955,000t. But DAP stocks still fell because of lower imports, as DAP importers retreated to the sidelines on seeing the domestic market enter its off-season. Latest government data for domestic DAP production and imports last month are 350,000t and 407,000t, respectively — broadly in line with expectations. This implies a net stock draw (production plus imports minus sales) of 112,000t through December. DAP sales in April-December totalled 7.99mn t, lagging the same period in 2024 by 4pc. But combined DAP and TSP offtake of 8.56mn t in April-December was broadly in line with around 8.61mn t over the same period in 2024. TSP imports slipped to just 34,000t in December, according to Argus lineup data, bringing imports in April-December to 959,000t. Sales of TSP over the same period reached 570,000t, according to the latest government data. This implies that India's TSP inventory grew by 389,000t since April, since India does not produce TSP domestically. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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Fertilizer Matters EP38: CBAM implementation for fertilizers to be suspended by the EU?
Fertilizer Matters EP37: Phosphate Markets – India & Pakistan
CBAM may hit EU potash demand from 2026
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