Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Brazil watchdog clears IG4 path to Braskem control
Brazil watchdog clears IG4 path to Braskem control
Sao Paulo, 6 March (Argus) — Brazil's antitrust authority Cade has approved without restrictions a transaction that could transfer controlling-company Novonor's stake in petrochemical producer Braskem to an investment fund advised by IG4 Sol, marking a significant shift in a long-running dispute over control of the petrochemical producer. IG4 Sol is part of IG4 Capital, a private equity firm specializing in distressed assets. Its proposal involves acquiring Novonor's debt from a consortium of banks — including Itau, Bradesco, Santander, Banco do Brasil and national development bank Bndes — and converting it into equity in Braskem. This debt-for-equity approach could allow IG4 to assume Braskem's control without a direct share purchase. Braskem said it learned from Cade's website that the watchdog issued a decision authorizing the concentration act related to Shine I FIDC's acquisition of Novonor-linked credit rights backed by Braskem shares. The Shine I FIDC fund was created as part of the restructuring framework tied to Novonor's creditor-backed assets, and serves as the vehicle designated to receive the Braskem shares securing those obligations. The fund consolidates the credit rights involved and acts as the platform through which Braskem's controlling block would be transferred. The approval opens a 15-day window in which Cade's tribunal may decide to take up the case, but the green light removes a key regulatory barrier for the structure under negotiation. The decision contrasts with the extended review Cade initiated in early February, when the authority signaled it needed a deeper look at the implications of an investment fund entering Braskem's capital structure, even though the deal had originally been filed under the fast-track procedure. At the time, Cade also considered concerns raised by plastics association Abiplast, which briefly sought third-party intervention before withdrawing its request. The new approval now places Shine I FIDC and IG4 in the leading position to assume Novonor's stake. Braskem said on Friday that any final outcome remains contingent on the 15-day review period and on the various contractual conditions tied to Novonor's restructuring process. The company emphasized that it will disclose any further information received from Novonor, the fund or Shine I FIDC. Novonor, under judicial recovery, has been seeking a path to divest most of its Braskem holding while potentially retaining a small minority stake as part of its restructuring plan. State-controlled oil major Petrobras, Braskem's other major shareholder, had opted on 12 February not to exercise its preemption or tag-along rights in the potential transfer of Braskem's shares held by Novonor. The renewed clarity on the antitrust front arrives against a backdrop of financial and operational strain for Braskem. The company has faced tighter cash conditions, pressure from weaker petrochemical spreads and setbacks at its Mexican joint venture Braskem Idesa, while lower plant utilization and feedstock constraints continue to affect domestic output. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Falling mortgage rates may boost US housing, PVC
Falling mortgage rates may boost US housing, PVC
Houston, 6 March (Argus) — US mortgage rates this year have sunk to their lowest level in more than three years and could unlock more consumer demand in a housing sector that has faced falling affordability . But tepid early-year housing demand has left polyvinyl chloride (PVC) suppliers cautiously optimistic that demand in the housing market could strengthen compared with 2025, with most expectations centered around a repeat of last year. About 51pc of outstanding mortgages have interest rates below 4pc, according to third quarter 2025 data from the US Federal Housing Finance Agency. With current rates as much as 50pc higher, that means more current homeowners who would otherwise be in the market for a new home are staying put. Realtors and mortgage experts anticipate a nominal rebound in housing demand this year as average rates on a 30-year mortgage slumped below 6pc for the week ended 27 February — the first time in more than three years — before crawling back to an average 6pc this week, Freddie Mac data show. "Rates below 6pc are an important psychological milestone for both buyers and sellers," said Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR). "Nearly 5.5mn additional households can afford the median-priced home when rates fall from 7pc to 6pc." Housing affordability improved early this year on higher income and declining interest rates. Gradually higher purchasing power early this year underpins expectations of an 8pc increase in 2026 home sales and indicates an anemic US housing sector could be at an inflection point, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) show. But new-home construction remains subdued, and a marginal decrease from 2025 is still expected. The MBA forecasts a 2pc decline this year in total housing starts from 2025, while the NAR projects a 1pc increase in single-family starts. Bullish demand signals in the domestic housing market have not shifted outlooks from PVC suppliers, who are maintaining tempered demand expectations from home construction. Current outlooks largely anticipate PVC demand into new-home construction to mirror 2025, which extended the multi-year demand slump in the sector. Instead, PVC suppliers are increasingly bullish on rebounding demand in the remodeling and wiring and cable industries, sources said. Residential remodeling activity is expected to grow by 3pc in 2026 and by 2pc in 2027, data from the National Association of Home Builders show. This trend is supported by an aging housing stock, homeowners locked into lower mortgage rates, and older homeowners not purchasing new homes. US home builders share the PVC industry's cautious outlook. A survey of home builders in February continued to paint a cooling new-home market, data from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index show. The leading concerns for surveyed builders are buyers waiting for lower mortgage rates, concerns about the broader economic environment, and high Federal Reserve interest rates. The US Federal Reserve is generally not expected to reduce its target interest rate in the first half of the year, with expectations of rate cuts in 2026 significantly dampened by stubbornly-high inflation and weaker-than-expected employment numbers in recent months, CME FedWatch data show. By Maya Porter and Gordon Pollock Mortgage rates vs. Residential construction permits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
rPET closures worsen circularity challenge: NAPCOR
rPET closures worsen circularity challenge: NAPCOR
London, 6 March (Argus) — Argus spoke to Laura Stewart, executive director of the North American PET industry association (NAPCOR), at the Plastics Recycling Conference in San Diego on 24 February, about the threat that recent recycling closures pose to US PET circularity and what can be done to help. How are recent recycling plant closures affecting PET collection and supply for Napcor's members? Right now, with five recycling plant closures, we're estimating a 16pc reduction in domestic PET recycling capacity. That reduction comes even after two new facilities came on line in 2025, so on a net basis we are down. This is absolutely worsening the challenges we are facing. When domestic PET recyclers can't process bales or access strong end markets, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain a functioning system. We're also seeing imported volumes of rPET continue to rise by some estimates up to 50pc higher than in recent years and that imported material is displacing domestic supply. If closures continue, we risk losing the foundation necessary for a robust circular economy in the US. We're producing and using PET bottles here, but if those bottles are collected and there's no recycler left to process them, that becomes a serious systemic concern. On a national level, PET bottle recovery has hovered around 30pc for decades. We do see differences between kerbside programmes and deposit return systems, but not enough to significantly shift the national picture. Various state-level studies show wide disparities across the US, from states such as Alabama with low recovery to those like Oregon with much higher rates, that inconsistently continue to challenge the system's overall efficiency. Should PET bottlers do more to support recyclers, and what barriers could prevent that? I believe minimum post-consumer content legislation is one of the clearest ways to support domestic recycling infrastructure. In Europe, for example, their updated EPR [extended producer responsibility] structures only allow post-consumer content to count towards compliance if it's collected within the region and policies like that help ensure domestic supply is protected. Napcor recently released a position supporting limits on imported rPET because we strongly believe a stable US recycling industry is essential. For years, we had strong tailwinds pushing the industry forward — the Ellen MacArthur commitments, aggressive corporate sustainability goals and the UN plastics discussions all encouraged capacity expansion. But today, many major brands are extending their timelines. Unilever was one of the first to announce delays, and we've heard the same from Coke and Pepsi. Those shifts have become headwinds for recyclers, equipment makers and producers. Add the tariffs on top of that and it then creates a really difficult environment. I wish it was one simple issue that we could fix, but it's a broader, structural challenge. How significant are the legal challenges to EPR in your view, and do you anticipate they could hinder its implementation in the US? From what I am seeing, companies are participating in the EPR programmes, they're paying into them and engaging in the process. States such as California and Oregon already have strong PET bottle recovery due to the deposit systems, so the real test will be in categories like thermoforms. Challenges from groups such as the National Association of Wholesalers-Distributors highlight the need for clarity on implementation. Colorado's new EPR programme will be an important case study. The state doesn't have strong kerbside recycling today, so if the EPR programme works as intended, we should see improvements driven by investment, infrastructure and education. But consumer participation still matters, behaviour change is hard. What encourages me is the cultural shift we've seen in places such as Canada, where stewardship is ingrained from a young age. We don't have that universally in the US. Changing perceptions from "plastics are bad" to "PET is recyclable, recycled daily, and valuable" is part of building a system that keeps PET out of landfills and the environment. With Europe tightening rPET import rules, could redirected material create opportunities for US buyers or new challenges for recyclers? The legislation was only recently enacted, so it's difficult to predict the full impact. There's still a lot of uncertainty, especially with tariffs and how they might influence global flow of rPET. We are seeing increased interest from south Asia to export more rPET into the US market. But if imports into the US continue to grow and the imported rPET is used in bottles made here, it weakens the circularity flow of material the domestic recycling system depends on. We're not collecting what we produce domestically, and if more of our supply comes from outside the US, we risk having even less material being collected and processed locally. That's a concern for long-term system health. What impacts are you expecting from the US Supreme Court's recent decision on tariffs? Right now, I would say ‘stay tuned'. The situation is changing daily, and since I've been travelling for the conference, I haven't been able to follow every update. There is a lot of unpredictability, and everyone across the supply chain is waiting for clarity. By the time this story is published, we may already have a better sense of what it means. PET producer Eastman, which operates depolymerisation capacity for PET waste, reports strong demand for advanced recycling PET. Do you see a growing need for repolymerised PET alongside mechanical recycling? From Napcor's perspective, Eastman has consistently positioned advanced recycling or depolymerisation as a complement to mechanical recycling, not a replacement. They are far ahead in scale compared with others, and it's encouraging to see innovation that expands the types of PET that can be recovered. What remains to be fully understood are the economics. Mechanical recycling has decades of proven performance and cost structure. Advanced recycling is still developing. I'd encourage deeper discussion with Eastman on how they see long-term economics and market integration evolving. What I do know is that this is a tough industry, and it has been for decades. To move forward, we need the entire supply chain recyclers, brands, producers and associations working together. This industry supports communities and jobs, and we all have a stake in keeping it strong. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US PE gains edge as Braskem runs dry
US PE gains edge as Braskem runs dry
Sao Paulo, 6 March (Argus) — Brazilian polyethylene (PE) buyers are turning again to US product following the expiration of Brazil's provisional antidumping duty on US and Canadian material, while a ditributor for domestic producer Braskem has advised it is running out of product. The domestic supply picture deteriorated after a Braskem distributor notified clients in a 5 March letter that all grades were unavailable and that there was no forecast for new arrivals from its supplier. The distributor also noted that market participants were speculating about further price increases and that several product lines had already reached zero inventory, with the situation likely to worsen in the coming days. The combination of limited domestic availability and reduced import flows from the Middle East because the US-Israel war on Iran has increased reliance on alternative supply routes, particularly from the US. In light of the supply disruptions, the expiration of Brazil's provisional antidumping duty on US ($199.04/metric tonne) and Canadian ($238.49/t) PE has taken on heightened importance for the domestic market. The timing is critical because the conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping routes and constrain liftings, narrowing the supply available to Brazilian buyers just as logistical pressures intensify across global corridors. More than a tenth of the global container fleet is currently exposed to Mideast Gulf trade routes, which underscores the strategic weight of the region for world shipping, according to logistics provider Ceva, which also reported that over 140 container ships representing more than 470,000 TEU (twenty-foot container) are trapped or waiting in the Arabian Gulf, with security concerns and port disruptions slowing vessel movements. Freight markets have reacted quickly, with China-to-UAE spot rates rising by nearly 25pc since mid-February as carriers introduce surcharges in response to the rising uncertainty. War risk insurance premiums have increased fivefold, reinforcing the operational strain felt across routes linked to the conflict, Ceva said. Brazil antidumping duties end The sequence of events surrounding Brazil's antidumping investigation helps explain how this backdrop has shaped market behavior. The trade authority initiated the case in November 2024, issued a preliminary determination in August 2025 and extended the process to May 2026. A provisional duty was applied shortly after with a maximum duration of six months. In the absence of any government notice extending that measure, the tariff expired in February 2026, although the broader investigation remains active within its legal timeframe. Though new provisional duties could be applied at any time, buyers are willing for now to take the risk on ordering product from the US, particularly given the supply tightness and higher prices from local producer Braskem. Braskem had released its March pricing policy signalling a rollover for PE, but on 2 March it issued a revision lifting prices by $50/t. A second revision was announced on 5 March raising prices by an additional $318/t. The rapid succession of these increases, combined with the absence of domestic supply, pushed buyers to seek alternative sources at a time when regional and global logistics were already under strain. With imports from the Middle East constrained and domestic availability curtailed, attention has shifted back to US-origin material. US producers have also been raising prices, requesting increases of up to 10¢/lb, according to letters viewed by Argus . Despite these adjustments, US PE remains competitive for Brazilian importers because transit times are shorter, the US logistics network is unaffected by the conflict and the overall landed cost remains attractive even after a $12/t rise in freight on the Houston to Santos route. The combined effect of these pressures has prompted converters and distributors to revisit procurement strategies. Buyers are reassessing cfr offers from US suppliers, diversifying carriers to improve booking reliability and managing the balance between domestic and imported volumes as Brazilian prices move higher. With Braskem implementing consecutive price increases while holding less inventory and with Middle Eastern shipments facing serious operational constraints, US-origin PE has re-emerged as a practical and increasingly necessary second supply option, and its relevance is likely to grow in the near term as long as domestic replenishment remains uncertain and global shipping conditions continue to deteriorate. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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