Phosphates
Overview
The global phosphates market has witnessed increasing volatility, in response to military conflicts, political tensions and changing market dynamics. Price fluctuations have continued to buffet the market, with increasing demand from south and Southeast Asia the main regions driving consumption growth. Rising raw material prices and improved affordability have lifted prices once again.
Phosphates' usage is also not solely limited to fertilizers. Battery-material suppliers are increasingly seeking to source phosphate rock and specialty phosphates-based products to meet the rapidly rising demand for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries for electric vehicle production.
Our extensive phosphates coverage includes DAP, MAP, TSP and SSP, as well as raw materials phosphate rock and phosphoric acid, with assessments also spanning feed products MCP and DCP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the phosphates market and incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including sulphur and ammonia to provide the full market narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Daily and weekly phosphates price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of processed phosphate and phosphate rock prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
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Latest phosphate news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global phosphate industry.
Pakistani DAP stocks low, as imports awaited
Pakistani DAP stocks low, as imports awaited
London, 1 October (Argus) — Pakistani DAP inventories edged up in August to 253,000t, with combined imports and domestic production slightly outpacing an uptick in demand. While stocks look fragile at the start of the October-March rabi season, a robust import line-up is likely to be enough to ensure offtakers are covered. Pakistan imported 49,000t of DAP in August, just short of the five-year average for the month, according to NFDC data. Domestic output was at its highest since May 2024, at 79,000t. Demand rose to 126,000t in August as farmers moved to cover potato season. Despite returning closer to long-term norms, this was still 14,000t short of the five-year average for August, as high prices continued to deter buyers. DAP stocks began September at just over 250,000t, down from 316,000t last year. Importers expect 2026 offtake to be down by 20-30pc because of high global and domestic prices. And early hopes for a DAP subsidy to support wheat this quarter have fallen flat. Even with a 20-30pc drop against the 2021-25 average for the quarter, DAP appetite in October-December could still be 415,000-474,000t. Based on end-August inventories, 73,000t of NFDC-estimated September production and 125,000t of demand — as well as the 50,000t of DAP imports lined up in September according to Argus data — stocks at the start of October could edge down by 2,000t on the month to 251,000t. While insufficient on its own to cover expected fourth-quarter demand, importers have lined up 177,000t of DAP for October, according to Argus data. With steady domestic production, this would be sufficient for Pakistan to end the year with robust carryover stocks, according to importers and traders. By Adrien Seewald Pakistan current season DAP inventories and offtake '000t Pakistan long-term DAP inventories and offtake '000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia faces uncertainty over 2027 phosphate prices
Australia faces uncertainty over 2027 phosphate prices
Sydney, 24 September (Argus) — The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is fuelling concerns over phosphate supply and pricing in Australia ahead of the 2027 winter cropping season. Australian importers typically organise the first MAP/DAP shipments of the season for November loading, but high prices and bearish sentiment in the global market are encouraging importers to delay purchases. Some domestic buyers are responding to the conflict by locking in MAP/DAP and urea cargoes for early-2027 collection , while pricing uncertainty is prompting others to sit back from the market until growers require product, suppliers said. Australia's lack of seasonal demand for MAP/DAP since the war began has shielded domestic prices from some of the global price increases, but if importers were to buy at current levels, they will need to increase offers domestically. While global phosphate prices have softened in recent weeks, levels remain elevated when compared to corrections seen for nitrogen and potash. Many Australian buyers continue to see phosphates as unaffordable. MAP prices have risen significantly since November buying last year. Argus last assessed MAP at $802-836/t fob Saudi Arabia, a 28pc increase from the start of November last year. ( See chart ) The Middle East is not only a key source of fertilizer for Australia , but also accounts for a large proportion of the global sulphur supply , which is a key component in phosphate production. High sulphur prices have supported phosphate production costs. Australia imported about 30pc of its MAP/DAP from Saudi Arabia via the strait of Hormuz in 2025, trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show. With the ongoing price volatility, Australian farmers will remain cautious heading into the next buying season, National Farmers Federation told Argus on 22 September. Domestic sellers and buyers grew cautious earlier this year after a sudden drop in domestic urea prices left some market participants with high priced stock. Farmers are also facing firm fuel prices and are watching these very closely, Grain Growers chief executive Shona Gawel told Argus on 22 September. "At this stage, the issue is volatility rather than supply. Markets can react to geopolitical tension long before there are actual shortages, which can quickly affect fuel, freight and fertiliser costs," Gawel said. Supply options There is product available in the global market for Australian importers, but risks have increased in terms of pricing and timing, Western Australian importer CSBP said in a market update on 16 September. Australia sources MAP/DAP from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, China and the US, ABS data show, but there are supply restraints on most of these origins. Australian importers are considering western Saudi Arabian ports for fertilizer imports given the war has blocked off regular east coast trade. But the latest escalation of tensions around the Bab el-Mandeb has put more strain on this option. No vessels have been confirmed for this route, and Australia's last fertilizer import from Saudi Arabia arrived in late July, vessel tracking data from Kpler show. Australia's MAP/DAP stocks remain sufficient to meet current prompt demand despite slower imports so far this year, market participants said. By Susannah Cornford Australian import price comparison Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Turkish DAP market constrained by high prices
Turkish DAP market constrained by high prices
London, 21 September (Argus) — Turkish DAP imports have slumped this year as high international prices have eroded farmer affordability, while demand destruction across phosphates is likely to persist. DAP importers have largely remained on the sidelines since March, and arrivals in April-July this year were only 43pc of the average for the same period in the three preceding years, GTT data show. Importers do not expect the seasonal increase in DAP imports over September-October for the vegetable season to happen this year because global DAP prices are likely to remain above the domestic level. Turkish farmers have been reluctant to take on the increase in international levels this year, importers said during the Argus Fertilizer Caspian, Black Sea and Eastern European Markets conference on 17-18 September. The Argus Turkey domestic DAP assessment on a bagged fca basis has remained below replacement costs since the assessment was first published in March, Argus data show. The cfr price has even remained above the dollar equivalent of the bagged fca price since the start of June. Morocco supplied 57.7pc of Turkey's DAP imports in 2023-25. But since March, producer OCP has exported no DAP to Turkey via the port of Jorf Lasfar, Argus data show. DAP export prices have remained unworkable for Turkish importers since the first quarter. Instead of relying on imported DAP, Turkish farmers have turned to domestically produced volumes, mainly from manufacturers Toros or Eti Gubre. Argus Analytics expects Turkey's domestic DAP production to total 517,000t over 2026, broadly stable on the year. This output is likely to reflect the bulk of P2O5 availability in the market. Other farmers have turned to alternatives such as SSP, NPs and NPKs. But most importers and distributors report that total P2O5 application this year will be substantially reduced, and that farmers will skip applications for the vegetables season because of high prices. Turkey imported 397,000 t/yr of DAP over 2023-25, according to GTT data. DAP imports in the first quarter were 13.6pc down on the first-quarter average in 2023-25. The gap widened once global prices rallied when it became clear that the closure of the strait of Hormuz because of the regional war would last beyond March. The Argus DAP Turkey assessment moved from a midpoint of $716/t cfr at the start of the year to $813/t cfr in early March, and has remained above $900/t cfr since the start of June. By Adrien Seewald Turkish DAP imports ('000t) Turkish import Vs domestic DAP prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
No quick fix for high US sulfur prices
No quick fix for high US sulfur prices
Houston, 18 September (Argus) — Government efforts to reduce costs for US sulfur consumers would not be as simple as incentivizing rail shipments, while export controls could worsen the conditions that have driven prices to record highs. Florida lawmakers recently expressed concern about high sulfur prices in a letter to the White House after prices hit a record high with the third quarter Tampa settlement at $705/long tonne (lt) delivered. Those prices have led to cutbacks in phosphate fertilizer production. The US Department of Agriculture and the Department of Transportation have floated the possibility of using railroads to better move domestic sulfur supplies, or providing incentives to keep sulfur in the US in an effort to address farmer affordability issues. Many of the refineries on the US Gulf coast — the main source of sulfur production and exports in the US — are not serviced by rail and rely on trucks to deliver sulfur to local customers and terminals. Because of this, such efforts would likely do little to address fundamental logistical limitations of the US sulfur market. US sulfur production in 2025 totaled 7.48mn t, 59pc of which came from the Gulf coast, while consumption reached 7.61mn t, according to the US Geological Survey . Similarly on the west coast, a lack of rail infrastructure encourages sulfur exports, regardless of where prices sit. Exports from both regions, because of domestic logistical limitations, essentially serve to balance the US market. The balance of sulfur that supplies many inland US customers mostly comes from Canada, shipped in molten form by rail. The US in January-July 2026 imported 1.08mn t of sulfur from Canada, more than double the volume from the same period a year earlier, accounting for more than 99pc of total imports so far in 2026. Overall, sulfur imports are up by more than 43pc on the year despite the steady threat of tariffs on Canadian sulfur. Although Canadian sulfur has remained exempt because of its eligibility under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the threat of tariffs remains a concern as relations between the US and Canada have deteriorated. Although considered unlikely by most market participants, any duties levied on Canadian sulfur would only raise domestic prices and place further strain on consumers. Global markets driving sulfur costs A severe imbalance in the global sulfur market, driven mostly by demand-induced deficits that began in 2025, has shifted to a substantial supply-driven deficit in 2026 resulting from the ongoing war in the Mideast. At the beginning of the US-Israel with Iran, attacks on vessels severely cut shipments through the strait of Hormuz, impacting around 50pc of globally-traded sulfur. Prices at the US Gulf coast increased from a midpoint of $491/t fob on 26 February to a high of $1,175/t fob on 13 August, supported by war-driven export demand. Export prices in the US Gulf since mid-August have fallen, reaching a midpoint of $1,025/t fob on 17 September. Weaker demand and buyer resistance, mostly from fertilizer and nickel producers, has applied pressure on suppliers and driven prices lower. The war in the Middle East and its impact on supply and freight rates has been the primary driver of the sulfur price rally in 2026. Even if the war were to end imminently, elevated prices would likely linger through at least the end of the year because of damage to production facilities, terminals and infrastructure in the region. But even prior to the war in the Middle East, a global supply deficit tightened markets during the second half of 2025. Surging demand from nickel producers in Indonesia and copper producers in sub-Saharan Africa drove prices to historically elevated levels, despite steady supply. An export ban implemented by Russia beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025 marked the first constraint on supply, squeezing an already undersupplied market. Any suspension of exports from the US would only tighten markets further and is raise global prices, placing more strain on the global economy. Removing the ability for US producers to export would also impact refinery operations because of the lack of storage across US infrastructure. Some estimate that if there were a moratorium on sulfur exports, refineries would have to greatly reduce their operating rates. By Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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