Angelika: Welcome to another episode of Back from the Fields. Here, we give you our sentiment on the Black Sea wheat crops. For more insights on the Black Sea region’s production, we conduct crop tours in Ukraine, Russia and Romania throughout the year that can be found in the AgriMarkets Outlook weekly and monthly service.
My name is Angelika Melikian. I am in charge of the Argus crop tours programme. I am joined today by my colleague Claudia, Associate Editor, who covers CVB wheat for the daily AgriMarkets report.
Today, we are sharing the results of our March virtual crop tours in Ukraine and Romania — with our updated forecasts for the 2026-27 wheat season — and looking at rapeseed in particular because of challenging weather conditions in western Europe and Ukraine this winter and spring.
Claudia: Hi Angelika, hi everyone. Yes, it has been an eventful few months since our December forecasts, and there is quite a bit to update on. Let us start with Ukraine, Angelika — how has the picture changed since last autumn?
Angelika: So for Ukraine, we have made a slight downward revision. Our March crop tour puts Ukraine's 2026-27 wheat production at 23.5mn t. This is 0.4mn t lower than our first crop tour forecast in November.
Claudia: So I’ve seen in our report that the main driver of this cut is a downward revision in harvested area. What are we expecting for areas now?
Angelika: We have slightly lowered our November forecast for total wheat harvested area to 5.1mn hectares (ha) today, almost in line with last season’s areas. This is based on preliminary official data and our own estimates.
Claudia: I should note that these figures may be revised once another official update comes out. And yields — are you holding those steady?
Angelika: Yes, we are maintaining our December yield forecast at 4.6 t/ha, marginally up from last season and slightly above the five-year average. So even with the area revised down, this is still production above the four-season average of around 22mn t.
Claudia: What about winter conditions in Ukraine? We had a cold winter this year, I imagine it was not so easy.
Angelika: It really wasn’t. Ukrainian farmers had some sharp cold snaps and very low temperatures during the winter months. That said, conditions have improved since February, thanks to warmer weather and the start of fertilizer applications.
Claudia: But fertilizer use is quite uneven this year. Most farmers secured supplies before winter, but around 20-30pc did not, and they are now facing steep price increases. Of those, roughly 80-90pc plan to skip fertilization altogether. That sounds like a potential risk to yields and quality?
Angelika: Could do, yes. If the weather stays favourable, the impact could be modest, as there will still be some moisture and fertilizer held in the black soil of Ukrainian fields, which will provide some buffer. But under stress, both yields and grain quality could suffer. Rain in April and May will be key for optimal wheat development. For now, well-replenished soil moisture has removed some of the near-term risk. We will update our production forecast in our June crop tour report.
Claudia: Let us talk about rapeseed in Ukraine, because from what I have seen, it has been a much harder winter for oilseeds.
Angelika: Very much so. Rapeseed conditions vary sharply across regions, and overall yield potential is below normal this season. In Odesa, crops are holding up relatively well — southern parts are rated around four out of five by local farmers, with rather strong yield potential, while northern zones are showing weaker potential and some fields are in poor condition.
Claudia: Does that mean that some will need replanting?
Angelika: Nationwide, we estimate that around 20pc of rapeseed area has been lost after winter, according to our contacts.
Claudia: What caused these losses?
Angelika: A combination of late sowing and sharp temperature fluctuations during winter. Many rapeseed plants entered dormancy with only 4-5 leaves — they simply were not strong enough. As a result, spring development is lagging by up to three weeks compared with normal, except in the far south where crops look stronger. Other winter crops have also struggled. Winter barley shows good potential in the south but significant losses in central areas.
Claudia: And what are farmers planning to do with the lost areas?
Angelika: In the south, farmers are mostly planning to replant with sunflower. In central-southern regions, corn is the preferred option. In more northern and central areas, soybeans or corn may replace lost rapeseed and barley, depending on farmers' production capacity and whether they can sow within optimal timeframes.
Claudia: Thank you, Angelika. Now let me turn to Romania, where the picture is positive, especially for wheat. Our updated forecast for Romania's 2026-27 wheat production stands at 12.66mn t, which is around 0.4mn t higher than our December estimate.
Angelika: That is strong production potential, near last season’s record. What is driving it?
Claudia: Improved post-winter conditions and higher yield potential. We are now projecting a wheat yield of 5.4 t/ha, up from 5.2 t/ha in December. That is above the long-term trend, although still below last season's record — we are accounting for some spring risks ahead of harvest.
Angelika: And on the area side? Last autumn, we forecast another increase under wheat, confirming the now established trend of higher wheat and other winter crops plantings at the expense of spring crops.
Claudia: Yes, it’s still the case, but we have revised the wheat area slightly down to 2.35mn ha, compared with our November estimate of 2.39mn ha, based on the latest feedback from farmers and our internal calculations. Note that no winter kill has been reported. The area is still up from 2.28mn ha in 2025-26 and above the five-year average — so, as you have said, this long-term trend of farmers planting more winter wheat each year continues, largely at the expense of corn.
Angelika: What is behind this shift towards winter crops?
Claudia: Several seasons of insufficient rainfall, quality problems and lower margins for spring crops have pushed farmers toward winter varieties. Plantings of winter rapeseed and winter barley have also increased in line with wheat, again replacing corn in particular. Good yields for wheat and barley and attractive barley prices, in particular, this season have only accelerated this switch.
Angelika: Can we speak a little about the crop conditions, please, starting with wheat?
Claudia: All of our contacts report good, very good or satisfactory conditions in most fields — consistent with what we saw in autumn. Strong rains fell in all wheat-growing regions, which is unusual for the country. We gave wheat crops the second-highest April score since Argus began crop tours in Romania, more than a decade ago.
Angelika: Impressive. Are there any risks you are looking out for?
Claudia: Yes. Last year, despite a record harvest, low soil moisture in western and northeastern areas caused concern in April. Similar risks could re-emerge before harvest. As recently as 2020-21, drought in the spring and then in the very last weeks before harvest meant that Romania lost several million tonnes of production potential — around 40pc — in the space of just a few weeks. So the coming weeks remain critical.
Angelika: And we said that some Ukrainian farmers might skip final fertilizer applications this year — are we seeing the same in Romania?
Claudia: It’s possible, yes. When nitrogen fertilizer prices rose six weeks ago at the start of the war in Iran, we heard that Romanian farmers still had as much as 40pc of their inputs to cover for winter crops, and this would mostly be to cover the second and maybe third rounds of nitrogen application. Applying nitrogen in these later stages to boost protein content in the crop, more so than the initial stage, is mostly correlated to yields. So we’ll be watching to see if farmers skip fertilizer late in the season this year and what impact that might have on protein.
Angelika: Yes, I read an article on that in the AgriMarkets report. Let us talk about rapeseed in Romania? Are conditions and potential as strong as for wheat?
Claudia: No. Things are a little less positive for rapeseed. Winter rapeseed areas have increased strongly at national level, but crop conditions are uneven and yield prospects remain uncertain. In several areas, the crop was late to emerge from the ground and then suffered repeated cold episodes during winter. In some cases, up to a quarter of planted rapeseed may need to be replanted.
Angelika: Are there regional differences?
Claudia: Yes, quite significant ones. In southeastern Romania — including the Constanta area — farmers have actually been able to reintroduce rapeseed into rotations this autumn for the first time in several years, after a long run of failed plantings due to dry conditions. This is further reducing the space for spring crops such as corn. By contrast, in the most western regions, difficult sowing conditions last autumn led many farmers to plant more winter wheat instead of rapeseed, so the increase in rapeseed areas generally across Romania is less noticeable in the west of the country.
Angelika: So the outlook for rapeseed is very much weather-dependent from here?
Claudia: Exactly. Despite rapeseed's well-known resilience to difficult weather conditions, farmers remain cautious. Spring conditions so far have been less favourable for rapeseed than for wheat and barley, and final yields will be highly dependent on what happens in the coming weeks.
Angelika: Thank you, Claudia. So to summarise — we forecast Ukraine's wheat production at 23.5mn t. This is slightly up from last season’s result. Romania's wheat production is projected at 12.7mn t, close to last season’s record.
For rapeseed, the picture is more mixed in both countries, with winter losses in Ukraine and uneven potential in Romania.
As always, these are preliminary forecasts, and area and production estimates remain subject to revision. We will publish updated forecasts in our summer crop tour report, early June for Romania and at the end of the month for Ukraine. We will also conduct crop tours in France and make an update of our forecast in Russia.
Claudia: Yes, I’ll be heading to Romania at the start of June to take a look at the fields and catch up with all our contacts then.
Angelika: Thank you, Claudia, and thank you all for listening to us for analysis, insights, prices and crop tour updates. Make sure to check out our AgriMarket services — we have daily, weekly and monthly reports that can help you get ahead of the markets. Goodbye, everyone.
