Cop 26 profile: Europe sets climate bar high
The bloc hopes the summit will see other major emitters deliver concrete plans for net zero, writes Dafydd ab Iago
The EU has dominated global climate talks since the first UN Conference of the Parties (Cop) summit in Berlin, in addition to holding the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat in the former German capital Bonn. On top of hosting more than half of the Cops since 1995, Europe has become the first major economic region to lay out in detail a policy path towards net zero carbon emissions in 2050.
"Europe needs to lead, so the rest of the world understands where we need to go," EU climate action commissioner Frans Timmermans told EU environment ministers signing off this month on the bloc's negotiating mandate for Cop 26. That self-image of a bloc leading with ambitious headline targets, and detailed EU and national legislation, is key to the EU's negotiating position in Glasgow.
Having surpassed its previous 20pc reduction target set for 2020, the EU submitted confirmation, this May, to the UN of EU-level emission cuts of 3.8pc in 2019 compared with 2018. That is a full 24pc lower than 1990 levels, even before Covid-19 restrictions cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions last year. The bloc also updated its nationally determined contribution (NDC) and legally bound itself to carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting GHG emissions in 2030 by at least 55pc compared with 1990, up from a previous 40pc target (see table).
For Brussels then, Glasgow must force other major emitters, such as China and the US, to deliver with concrete plans rather than vague commitments towards net zero. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen only sees China's announcement at the UN that it will stop building coal-fired generation abroad or US president Joe Biden's promise to double US international climate finance as "steps in the right direction". While repeating a promise to commit an additional €4bn ($4.7bn) in climate finance in 2021-27, von der Leyen wants "concrete" plans from international partners. The EU brings to Glasgow the highest level of ambition. "We do it for our planet. And we do it for Europe," she told the European Parliament this month.
If altruism does not push other Cop parties into action, the EU is fine-tuning a carbon border mechanism to protect its carbon-intensive industries. The mechanism starts in 2026 with a duty on cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertiliser and electricity imported to the EU from countries not subject to carbon pricing.
Concrete carbon phase-outs
Polishing the money aspects of the bloc's negotiating position for Glasgow, finance ministers from the EU's 27 member states stress that the "ambitious" updated NDC is being implemented by a package of legislative proposals adopted by the commission in July. And Timmermans warned environment ministers this month against using the energy price shocks that EU members are facing as an excuse to back down on proposals that are effectively phase-out schedules for CO2-intensive sectors. Timmermans said that if Europe leaves the climate crisis untackled, the resulting social unrest will be far worse than France's 2018 gilets jaunes protests over fuel and climate taxes.
More climate sceptical — and coal dependent — Poland is, for the moment, relatively isolated in arguing for postponing or lowering various climate and energy goals because of the energy price spikes. The majority of EU politicians seem to accept calls by Timmermans and von der Leyen to double down on decarbonisation policies such as an increased GHG cut — of 61pc, rather than 43pc, by 2030, compared with 2005 levels — for industries under the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). Distributors of road and heating fuels will have to purchase allowances, from 2026, to cover their emissions under a separate ETS with a carbon price that may well float above €100/t. In aviation, allowances for intra-European flights will be slowly reduced, with operators losing free allowances from 2026.
The EU's commitment to delivery is evidenced by over 3,000 pages of dense legal proposals and explanatory texts that aim to set GHG fuel intensity cuts for maritime fuels, oblige flight operators to take up 5pc sustainable aviation fuels by 2030, rising to 20pc by 2035 and 63pc by 2050, and for renewables to reach 40pc, rather than 32pc previously, of EU gross final consumption of energy by 2030.
Tougher CO2 emissions standards for new passenger cars and vans require average emissions to come down by 55pc from 2030 and by 100pc from 2035, compared with a 2020-21 target of 95g CO2/km. That effectively sets a 2035 phase-out date for sales of unabated internal combustion engines. There is also a 13pc GHG intensity reduction target for transport fuels by 2030, effectively doubling to 28pc the share of renewable fuels in road transport.
Ships calling at EU ports will have to reduce the average GHG intensity of their fuels by 6pc by 2030, 13pc by 2035 and 75pc by 2050, all from 2020 levels. And the commission wants member states to push zero-emission car sales by equipping major highways with electric charging every 60km and hydrogen refuelling every 150km.
Article 6 integrity
Signing off on a negotiating mandate for Timmermans and the commission in Glasgow, EU environment ministers have called for article 6 of the Paris climate agreement to set rules for international carbon trading that are "consistent with the necessary increased global ambition and the achievement of climate neutrality, and that avoid double counting and lock in to high-emissions pathways". Ministers specifically want article 6 provisions that promote sustainable development, ensure environmental integrity and ambition, and address risks such as "non-permanence" of carbon cuts or sequestration and "leakage" from projects.
Off the record, EU officials involved in the nitty-gritty of climate negotiations are openly sceptical about international carbon trading, flagging an increasing number of complaints about the credibility of voluntary offsets with "different controversies in different countries". Officials fear double counting and the need for "corresponding" adjustments of their own emission figures when countries sell reductions to others. "Fostering global ambition, ensuring environmental integrity and avoiding double accounting are at the core of the Paris agreement and of the EU position on market mechanisms," European environment commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius says.
The EU's non-governmental organisations have called the bloc's negotiating position "good enough", especially as EU ministers now back a five-year timeframe for countries' NDCs to the Paris agreement to be implemented from 2031. But campaigners say the EU27 have intentionally left their negotiators room to manoeuvre, including on how the EU and member states will help reach the €100bn goal for international climate finance for developing countries. And non-governmental organisation Carbon Market Watch wants the EU to do more to ensure international carbon market negotiations move beyond just compensating emissions and zero-sum offsetting to deliver real GHG reductions. It calls for tough offsetting and carbon trading rules at Cop 26, and will this month present critical analysis of claims by companies including Shell, Total, BP, Russian state-controlled Gazprom and Chinese state-controlled PetroChina of carbon-neutral natural gas and crude shipments.
| EU GHG reduction targets | ||
| NDC target % | Baseline year | Target year |
| 2016 — 40pc | 1990 | 2030 |
| 2020 — 55pc | 1990 | 2030 |
| 2016 — 80-95pc | 1990 | 2050 |
| 2020 — 100pc | 1990 | 2050 |
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New Zealand’s Genesis Energy to resume coal imports
New Zealand’s Genesis Energy to resume coal imports
Sydney, 8 May (Argus) — New Zealand's upstream firm and utility Genesis Energy plans to resume thermal coal imports later this year to feed its dual gas- and coal-fired Huntly power plant. The resumption was because of lower domestic gas production and rapidly declining coal stockpiles, and will mark the firm's first coal imports since 2022. Coal inventories at the 953MW Huntly plant, — New Zealand's largest power station by capacity and the country's only coal-fired facility — recently slipped below 500,000t, down from 624,000t at the end of March, and will fall below 350,000t by the end of the winter. This will trigger a need to purchase more coal to maintain a target operational stockpile of around 350,000t ahead of winters in 2025 and 2026, the company said on 8 May. Imports are currently the most efficient option for the quantity the company will need, with a delivery time of around three months, chief executive Malcolm Johns said. Genesis typically imports from Indonesia, the company told Argus . Gas production in New Zealand has dropped at a faster rate than expected, with major field production in April down by 33pc on the year, Genesis said. Lower gas availability typically leads to more coal burn, because the Huntly plant runs on gas and coal. This is in addition to an extended period of low hydropower inflows in recent months, which required higher thermal generation to ensure supply security. A prolonged outage at Huntly's unit 5 gas turbine between June 2023 and January 2024 also led to an even greater need for coal-fired generation, Genesis said. Biomass transition The company — which is 51pc owned by the state — is the second-largest power retailer in New Zealand, behind domestic utility Mercury, according to data from the Electricity Authority. It has a NZ$1.1bn ($659mn) programme for renewable power generation and grid-scale battery storage , which includes a potential replacement of coal with biomass at Huntly. But the transition to biomass "will take some years," Johns said. Genesis has successfully completed a biomass burn trial at Huntly last year and has collaboration agreements with potential New Zealand pellet suppliers, but there is currently no local source for the type of pellets needed for the plant. Genesis is hoping to move to formal agreements "as soon as counterparties are able". The company will not consider importing pellets, it told Argus . "We will only use biomass if we can secure a local New Zealand supply chain that is sustainable and cost-effective," it said. Domestic gas production New Zealand's three-party coalition government said separately on 8 May that the "material decline" in local gas production threatens energy security, blaming the previous Labour party-led government for "policy decisions which have disincentivised investment in gas production." The decisions — which were part of the former government's pledge to achieve a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 — led to a reduction in exploration for new gas resources since 2021, while suppressed maintenance drilling reduced production from existing gas fields, according to a joint release from energy minister Simeon Brown and resources minister Shane Jones. "Due to this significant reduction in gas production, the government has also been advised that some large gas consumers are expressing concern about their ability to secure gas contracts," the government said. Major industrial users such as Canada-based methanol producer Methanex have been forced to reduce production as a result, it noted. "We are working with the sector to increase production, and I will be introducing changes to the Crown Minerals Act to parliament this year that will revitalise the sector and increase production," Jones added. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Doubts abound over US midcon E15 shift: NATSO
Doubts abound over US midcon E15 shift: NATSO
Houston, 7 May (Argus) — An effort by eight US midcontinent states to start selling 15pc ethanol (E15) gasoline blends year-round starting in 2025 remains unlikely, according to US fuel retailer trade association NATSO. The US approved last month the request from Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin for year-round E15 gasoline sales starting next year. But even with that approval there are many barriers to making those sales a reality, said David Fialkov vice president of government affairs for NATSO, which represents truck stops and travel center operators. This includes a lack of investment from pipelines and refiners to prepare for the changes, as well as the higher costs of separating and selling different gasoline specifications at the retail level. "I remain pessimistic that it will come to fruition," Fialkov said Tuesday at a conference held by fuel retail industry group SIGMA in Austin, Texas. Political pressure to delay or abate the change in the midcontinent states will probably continue until refiners, pipeline companies and retailers begin to make the investments necessary, said Fialkov. E15 has been available for sale across the US since 2019, but a federal court in 2021 found that the Clean Air Act offers a fuel volatility waiver to refiners to produce only 10pc ethanol gasoline. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has worked around this ruling for the last two summers by issuing temporary emergency orders allowing the sale of E15 because of the war in Ukraine's squeeze on crude prices. A group of midcontinent refiners has petitioned the EPA to delay implementation of the E15 rule until the summer of 2026. The EPA has not yet ruled on the request. Fialkov said a legislative solution to the issue at the federal level would provide a clear and uniform pathway to E15, as opposed to the the EPA's rule which leaves some states still relying on the waiver and others opting to go with year-round E15. By Zach Appel Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EPA sets new oil and gas methane reporting rules
EPA sets new oil and gas methane reporting rules
Washington, 7 May (Argus) — Federal regulators have updated emissions reporting requirements for oil and gas facilities as they prepare to implement a methane "waste" fee for the industry. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Monday finalized new rules it says will improve the accuracy of data from the oil and gas sector under the federal greenhouse gas emissions reporting program. Oil and gas facility owners and operators will be required to estimate emissions from additional types of equipment under the rule, and they can draw on newer technologies, like remote sensing, to help estimate emissions. "EPA is applying the latest tools, cutting edge technology, and expertise to track and measure methane emissions from the oil and gas industry," agency administrator Michael Regan said. "Together, a combination of strong standards, good monitoring and reporting, and historic investments to cut methane pollution will ensure the US leads in the global transition to a clean energy economy." Data to support new fee The revisions to the "Subpart W" reporting requirements will be used to determine the amount of methane that will be subject to a "waste emissions charge" created by the Inflation Reduction Act. Under the law, the charge will be calculated based on the annual data that about 8,000 oil and gas sources are now required to report. The charge will begin at $900/t for 2024 methane emissions above a minimum threshold using current measurement data. It will then rise to $1,200/t in 2025 and $1,500/t in subsequent years. Industry officials had raised "serious concerns" about several aspects of the original proposal , warning it could lead to inflated emissions data. "We are reviewing the final rule and will work with Congress and the administration as we continue to reduce GHG emissions while producing the energy the world needs," American Petroleum Institute vice president of corporate policy Aaron Padilla said. The industry group previously said it will ask Congress to repeal the fee, which is only likely to occur if Republicans win control of the White House. Data collected since 2010 Oil and gas facilities have reported emissions under Subpart W since 2010. To simplify reporting, operators often count the equipment they have deployed, and use industry-wide averages to estimate emissions, in addition to other direct and indirect measurements. The industry has argued the Subpart W data is not accurate enough to collect the methane charge, which is expected to cost operators more than $6bn over the next decade. Environmental groups have had their own criticisms of the data, which they say omits vast amounts of emissions such as those from "super-emitter" events and poorly maintained flares. The final rule seeks to respond to some of those concerns by relying on updated emission factors, incorporating additional empirical data on emission rates, collecting data at a more granular level and relying on remote sensing technologies to detect large emission events. EPA also revised Subpart W to include more types of sources, including produced water tanks, nitrogen removal units and crankcase venting. The final rule also sets a threshold of 100 kg/hr of methane for requiring the reporting of emissions from "other large release events." The new data rules will take effect on 1 January 2025 and will first apply to reports submitted in early 2026 for next year's emissions. EPA is allowing the use of the new methodologies for calculating 2024 emissions, but operators can still use the existing rules. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex bajo presión para mantener refinación alta
Pemex bajo presión para mantener refinación alta
Mexico City, 7 May (Argus) — La refinación de crudo de Pemex, propiedad estatal de México, en marzo alcanzó sus niveles más altos en casi ocho años antes de las elecciones presidenciales del 2 de junio, pero la empresa podría enfrentarse a desafíos para mantener niveles de refinadoaltos en los próximos meses. Las seis refinerías nacionales de Pemex procesaron más de 1 millón b/d de crudo en marzo por primera vez desde junio de 2016, impulsadas por el progreso en la rehabilitación de las refinerías y una disminución de las exportaciones de crudo para alimentar el sistema de refinación. El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador busca reducir las importaciones de combustible en su último año en el cargo, en línea con su promesa de campaña de volver a México más independiente en energía. Sin embargo, los niveles de proceso de crudo podrían disminuir en abril-mayo después de que se produjeran incendios en las refinerías Minatitlán y Salina Cruz a finales de abril. Además, las refinerías de Salina Cruz (330,000 b/d) y Tula (315,000 b/d), las más grandes de México, siguen batallando con una producción elevada de combustóleo con alto contenido de azufre, lo que limita las capacidades de las refinerías para operar a altas tasas simultáneamente. Pemex lleva mucho tiempo luchando con la elevada producción de combustóleo, ya que México produce principalmente crudo pesado, lo que crea una serie de desafíos operativos. El combustóleo suele ocupar valioso espacio de almacenamiento necesario para productos de mayor valor, lo que puede limitar la producción de combustibles más ligeros. Las exportaciones récord de combustóleo en marzo, impulsadas por un aumento de la demanda en la costa del Golfo de EE. UU. después de los reacondicionamientos de la refinería, permitieron a Pemex elevar las operaciones en ambas refinerías simultáneamente. Sin embargo, el problema podría volver a afectar a Pemex en los próximos meses cuando la demanda de combustóleo disminuya y la empresa se vea obligada a almacenar el producto. Pemex está construyendo unidades de coquización en ambas refinerías para resolver este problema, pero no se espera que la unidad de Tula comience a funcionar hasta al menos finales de año, mientras que la unidad de coquización de Salina Cruz comenzaría a finales de 2025. Mientras tanto, la refinería Cadereyta de 275.000 b/d podría compensar parcialmente una disminución en el procesamiento de crudo en Tula y Salina Cruz, ya que su configuración le permite producir menos combustóleo, una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de Pemex ha dicho a Argus . Las tasas de refinación de Pemex comenzaron a caer en 2014 después de que la administración anterior decidiera depender menos de la producción nacional y centrarse en abrir el mercado de la energía, antes hermético a inversiones externas. En cambio, López Obrador invirtió al menos $3.7 mil millones en mantenimiento para las refinerías antiguas de Pemex de 2019-2023, excluyendo proyectos importantes como las coquizadoras en construcción, además de $17 mil millones para la nueva refinería Olmeca. Cambios en el flujo de crudo y combustible Los mayores niveles de refinación de Pemex han disminuido el flujo de crudo y combustible entre México y EE. UU., y el arranque de Olmeca podría alterar aún más los flujos. Pemex redujo sus importaciones de gasolina y diésel en 25pc a 419,000 b/d en marzo, comparado con 562,000 b/d el año pasado, como resultado de un mejor rendimiento de las refinerías. Las exportaciones de crudo de México cayeron un 29pc hasta un mínimo histórico de 687,000 b/d en marzo, por una menor producción y mayores niveles de refinación. El flujo de crudo y combustible entre México y EE. UU. podría disminuir aún más una vez que Olmeca comience operaciones comerciales y si Pemex mantiene un alto nivel de refinación en sus otras refinerías. La refinería Olmeca comenzará a producir diésel de ultra bajo azufre esta semana, procesando destilados enviados desde la refinería Madero, dijo Pemex el 3 de mayo. Pero la refinería no ha cumplido varios plazos prometidos, el más reciente en abril. La unidad de destilación de crudo de la refinería, la primera unidad de procesamiento, se enfrenta a "problemas importantes" que han retrasado el inicio de la refinería, aunque otras unidades de procesamiento secundario están listas para comenzar, dijo a Argus una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de Pemex. Sin embargo, el mercado se mantiene escéptico de que se puedan mantener los niveles de refinación después de las elecciones del 2 de junio, ya que Pemex sigue enfrentándose a problemas operativos en sus refinerías. Pero la candidata del partido gobernante Claudia Sheinbaum lidera la votación con doble dígito y se espera que continúe el proyecto actual del gobierno para reforzar Pemex y aumentar los niveles de refinación de la empresa. Por Antonio Gozain Exportaciones de crudo, importaciones de combustible de Pemex ’000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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