News
13/11/25
Turkey could be LNG gateway for east Europe
London, 13 November (Argus) — Turkey has higher LNG regasification capacity than
Greece, but the country's rising consumption is weighing on excess gas for
export and its closed market creates challenges for traders, while Greece faces
grid congestion issues but has promising investments and a more open market.
Greece has a 5.4mn t/yr LNG import terminal at Revithoussa, which could feed the
grid with a maximum of 82 TWh/yr if operating at full capacity. Additionally,
there is a 4.3mn t/yr terminal at Alexandroupolis, with a theoretical capacity
of 66 TWh/yr. Combined, Greece's LNG processing capacity totals 9.7mn t/yr,
equal to 148 TWh/yr, or — using Desfa's conversion rate — about 12.7bn m³/yr.
But both terminals operate at much lower utilisation rates. Revithoussa supplied
18.2TWh to the grid throughout 2024, averaging 50 GWh/d. Traders said that LNG
prices were less competitive than Russian pipeline gas during that year. And
Revithoussa's sendout increased to 79 GWh/d during the first 10 months of this
year, which, if sustained for the full year, would be roughly 29TWh. While low
sendout indicates spare capacity at Revithoussa, Greek infrastructure
constraints remain. The country faces compression limitations both south-north
and east-west. With the recently added compression station at Komotini, Desfa
announced that northward export capacity has been raised to 8.5bn m³/yr, or
about 99 TWh/yr. This figure is the maximum export capacity at the Sidirokastro
and Komotini interconnection points, but delivering gas to these points can
still be problematic. For Revithoussa supply, the Ampelia compressor station,
located in central Greece, is critical. Desfa had stated that this project would
be completed in the last quarter of this year, but no update has yet been
provided. And Alexandroupolis went offline for extended maintenance in January
this year soon after it started operations. Its operator was only able to
increase its maximum sendout capacity to 75pc of its technical limit by late
October. In any event, a bottleneck persists in the northern Greek system.
Capacity at the Amfitriti point, where Alexandroupolis supply enters the grid,
will be capped at 44 GWh/d through the 2025-30 gas years — about 16 TWh/yr or
1.4bn m³/yr — according to Desfa . Turkey as an alternative supply route? Turkey
currently operates five LNG import terminals, three FSRU-based and two onshore
facilities, with a total sendout capacity of 161mn m³/d. Overall sendout
capacity equals 625 TWh/yr, more than four times Greece's total, based on
Turkish state-run Botas' conversion rate. The Strandzha 1/Malkoclar point, which
directly connects the Turkish to the Bulgarian grid, has a technical outflow
capacity of 43 TWh/yr and remains underutilised. Firms exported a total of
16.3TWh at the point to Bulgaria in the first 10 months of this year, and
18.8TWh in all of 2024. Turkish energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar and senior
Botas executives have stated multiple times that they can increase the capacity
two to four times in a short period, provided there are long-term commitments
from potential European buyers. This suggests an export potential of 10bn m³/yr
in the short term, in theory exceeding Greek export capacity. That said, record
high Turkish consumption in the past winter , and scope for further growth might
weigh on excess supply for export. Turkey's main drawbacks include a closed
market and heavy dominance by a single actor. Although regulator EPDK maintains
a regulatory framework on paper comparable to western Europe, according to many
traders, Botas holds clear dominance in practice. Transparency remains low, and
the lack of a free trade forces companies to rely on Botas. These factors
lowered Turkey's rating in Energy Traders Europe's 2025 report , while Greece
rose. Bulgarian transit Bulgaria is working to develop its south-north transport
capacity. Bulgarian state-owned supplier Bulgargaz and Botas signed a 13-year
deal in January 2023 for Bulgarian access to Turkish LNG terminals. Bulgargaz
can transfer up to 1.5bn m³/yr of gas from the Turkish transmission system to
Bulgaria through Malkoclar under this agreement, but this agreement has
occasionally been criticised and underutilised . And the inflow capacity from
Greece via the Kulata/Sidirokasto will initially reach 37.2 TWh/yr, equal to
3.5bn m³/yr, over the next few years, according to the Bulgarian operator's most
recent 10-year plan . The Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria also provides 3bn
m³/yr, but its capacity will not increase in the short term . This means that
Bulgaria is initially targeting import capacity of 6.5bn m³/yr from Greece. By
Ugur Yildirim Send comments and request more information at
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