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UK ramps up climate action under new leadership

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 28/10/24

The UK's Labour government, elected in July, has taken the country's climate policy in a new direction, restoring pledges the previous administration scrapped and seeking to funnel investment to renewables. The UN Cop 29 climate summit presents an opportunity for it to follow this up on an international stage.

Hosting Cop 26 in 2021 allowed the UK to burnish its climate leadership credentials, but subsequent changes in the Conservative government saw policy reversals. Labour sought to differentiate its position on climate during the election campaign — possibly noting an increase in support for the UK's Green and Liberal Democrat parties, both of which hold firm pro-environment stances.

Labour promised to issue no new oil, gas or coal licences — although it said it would not revoke existing permits — and is aiming for zero-emissions power by 2030. Energy minister Ed Miliband in his first week in office lifted the de facto ban on onshore wind, and set up a taskforce to speed the country's path to a decarbonised power grid. The UK has in recent weeks pulled in around £24bn ($31bn) of investment for renewables, including from utilities Orsted and Iberdrola, and announced "up to" £21.7bn in funding over 25 years for carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) — although it is unclear how the money will be deployed.

The government moved swiftly to raise the windfall tax on oil and gas profits, lifting it to an effective rate of 78pc and scrapping one of the investment allowances — although the decarbonisation investment allowance remains in place. And, spurred by a landmark ruling made by the UK's Supreme Court in June, the government pledged new environmental guidance for oil and gas fields by spring 2025. The judgment ruled that consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the Scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The government has in the meantime halted assessment of any environmental statements for oil and gas extraction, including those already being processed, until the new guidance is in place.

The Labour government has declined to defend in court decisions taken by various iterations of the Conservative administration, including the permission granted for a proposed coal mine in northwest England. The High Court quashed that planning permission in September.

International stage

Miliband has sought guidance from independent advisory the Climate Change Committee (CCC) on the country's new climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC). The CCC assessed the previous government as off track to hit legally binding emissions-reduction targets. The UK has cut emissions by half since 1990 and is in line with all carbon budgets to date. But much of this progress was made from a baseline of a high rate of coal-fired power generation, all of which is now shut down. The next stage of the country's decarbonisation will be more fragmented and is likely to pose more of a challenge.

The UK has bucked the trend set by some European neighbours by shifting further left with Labour, although the new government has promoted fiscal caution. Climate finance will dominate the talks in Azerbaijan, and the UK has been clear it will continue to contribute.

Labour pledged in its manifesto to "return to the forefront of climate action", noting that the previous administration had "squandered [the UK's] climate leadership". Foreign minister David Lammy has embedded climate and nature issues into his foreign policy brief and the government has appointed special representatives for climate and nature. But Cop 29 will prove the first real test of the pledges made, with a global audience watching.

UK greenhouse gas emissions

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13/01/25

Serbia needs to remove NIS' Russian owners: US

Serbia needs to remove NIS' Russian owners: US

Budapest, 13 January (Argus) — Serbia will need to "remove" Russian ownership from oil firm NIS to avoid the effects of new US sanctions on Moscow's energy sector, according to US deputy secretary of state for management and resources Richard R. Verma. "These sanctions are directed at Russia, not Serbia," Verma said in Belgrade after meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. "The goal of the sanctions on NIS is to remove Russian ownership. "We've already had several discussions, including mine today with the [Serbian] president, and we talked about how to make this change in ownership," Verma said. "There will be no economic disruption due to these sanctions if the Russian ownership is removed." The US announced new sanctions against Russia's state-owned Gazpromneft and its subsidiaries — including NIS — as part of a bigger package of restrictions on Moscow's energy sector on 10 January. The sanctions on NIS will be enforced from 27 February. Russian state-controlled Gazpromneft and Gazprom own 50pc and 6.15pc of NIS, respectively, while the Serbian state holds 29.87pc and other shareholders the rest. NIS' Russian owners have "syphoned off" the firm's profits partially "to fund the brutal aggression against Ukraine," Verma said. "Changing NIS' ownership will bring greater peace and prosperity here and across the region," he said. Belgrade is seeking talks with US authorities to clarify what the sanctions include, Vucic said, adding he has asked the Washington delegation to make "the deadlines more flexible and slightly longer". Serbia wants to settle questions on whether Russian ownership in NIS would need to be fully eliminated or just reduced to below 50pc, according to Vucic. "We'll define everything I think in the next seven days, then we will turn to our Russian friends," he said. Serbia would not "take away" NIS without payment to the Russian owners, Vucic said. NIS operates Serbia's only oil refinery, the 96,000 b/d Pancevo plant, which it mostly feeds with crude imported through the Adria pipeline from the Croatian port of Omisalj. This is landlocked Serbia's only pipeline imports route. Vucic had said the sanctions would affect NIS' crude imports . By Béla Fincziczki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trudeau exit may spur Canadian energy growth


13/01/25
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13/01/25

Trudeau exit may spur Canadian energy growth

Calgary, 13 January (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau's place in federal politics is winding down after nine years of driving change in climate policy, but those environmental advances came at a cost for the world's fourth-largest oil producer, helping to stifle foreign investment in the country's oil and gas sector. Support for Trudeau fell nationwide over the past year, as inflation and rising housing costs fueled by a relaxed immigration policy and carbon taxes became too much for many to bear. Trudeau, seemingly immune to scandal and high-profile exits on his team, was dealt his biggest blow when his deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in December, citing his approach to the "aggressive economic nationalism" of US president-elect Donald Trump's threatened trade tariffs, prompting his 6 January decision to step down. Canadian crude producers still managed to lift output by 30pc during Trudeau's tenure since 2015, even as major foreign players abandoned the oil sands for friendlier jurisdictions and upstream projects and pipelines were either mothballed or cancelled outright. Provincial jurisdiction over resources prompted frequent fights between Trudeau and Albertan premiers who guarded their claim to energy and the right to explore and extract within their borders. "We could've done so much more," Alberta premier Danielle Smith said hours after Trudeau's announcement, lamenting missed opportunities for Canada's oil patch over the past decade, including the failed Energy East, Northern Gateway and Keystone XL export pipelines. A tanker ban, tighter regulation and an onerous project approval process were among the tools Trudeau used to try to rein in the oil and gas sector, saying in 2017 that Canada's oil sands needed to be "phased out" before naming a former Greenpeace director as his environment minister. Smith did give Trudeau a nod for his commitment to keeping midstream giant Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline from shutting down, and for helping to get the massive Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline and Coastal GasLink export projects from Alberta to Canada's Pacific coast across the finish line. But while Smith welcomes Trudeau's resignation, Canada now faces a period of lame duck leadership before it holds federal elections, while cross-border tensions are rising. Your new best frenemy Its largest trading partner is quickly becoming its newest antagonist, with Trump threatening a 25pc tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. Unencumbered movement of oil is critical on both sides of the border, with 80pc of Canada's 5mn b/d of crude production aimed at refineries in the US. Many landlocked Canadian producers have no practical alternative, like refiners in the US midcontinent connected by pipeline. As political chaos unfolds in Ottawa, Trump has lobbed insults at Trudeau and made calls for the northern neighbour to become the US' "51st state", a taunt that has struck a nerve in Canada. "There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Canada would become part of the US," Trudeau said on X on 7 January. "Trump's comments show a complete lack of understanding of what makes Canada a strong country," wrote minister of foreign affairs Melanie Joly. Trump will have spotted Canada's weakness months ago, with support for Trudeau tumbling to the benefit of the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre. Recent polls indicate the centre-right party would win a majority of seats in the House of Commons if an election were held today. That is likely to happen in May, assuming opposition parties bring down the government when Parliament resumes in late March. Should Poilievre win, Trump will have a partner better aligned on more policies than Trudeau was, but the suggestion that Canada could become part of the US will get the same response. "We will never be the 51st state. Period," Poilievre said. His primary ambitions are to undo Trudeau's work, with the federal carbon tax being the first to go. Rescinding the tanker ban, killing proposed emissions caps and promoting pipeline construction are also on the agenda. Poilievre plans to "take back control" of Canada's resources through permitting and cutting taxes on pipeline and LNG projects to become less reliant on the US. "Canadians will give me a mandate to take the country in a completely opposite direction," Poilievre said on the Jordan B Peterson Podcast earlier this month, describing how vanquishing Trudeau's energy policy will "cause a massive resource boom in our country." The lengthy exchange touched on minimising government, artificial intelligence and immigration, and was shared by Trump's ally, Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, who called it a "great interview". Priming for another Pacific pipeline Canada's energy industry has returned to profit and received a much-needed boost from the federally owned 590,000 b/d TMX pipeline, but rising oil sands production means the newly commissioned system is destined to fill up soon. The prospect of an industry-friendly federal government reinvigorating a relatively dormant midstream sector is positive for investment in Canada, and the US could play an unintended role in deciding where any pipelines are proposed. Enbridge and the Alberta government are teaming up to find ways to expand pipeline capacity. Smith singled out the US as a customer she wants to enhance ties with amid looming tariff threats, but those threats may prompt a revival of pipeline projects to Canada's west coast to reduce dependence on the US market. Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline was approved in 2014, but a Liberal Party led by Trudeau came to power in 2015 with sweeping changes for the oil and gas sector, including a tanker ban on the country's Pacific coast, effectively killing the project. The C$7.9bn ($7.3bn) Northern Gateway was not in the interest of local communities, Trudeau said in late 2016, when he officially reversed the previous government's approval. The pipeline would have shipped 525,000 b/d of diluted bitumen westward and 193,000 b/d of imported condensate eastbound to the oil sands region for blending. Construction would have avoided large populations and was seen as the most practical option for getting more Canadian crude to Asia-Pacific. Its northern terminal may not have had the same tanker limitations as TMX faces at Vancouver, and could have seen reduced voyage times. Enbridge now has added support from the Alberta government by way of crude volumes the province collects as tax from some oil companies in lieu of cash payments. These in-kind barrels would be the first to backstop a major pipeline expansion by Enbridge, giving both the midstream company and other producers something to latch onto to advance a future project. This is a new approach for Alberta, after sacrificing C$1.5bn it paid in a last-ditch effort to keep the doomed 830,000 b/d Keystone XL project to the US alive. Outgoing US president Joe Biden revoked that troubled line's permit in 2021. Like Keystone XL, Northern Gateway is no more. Reviving such a project would still require significant stakeholder engagement along any route, and face substantially higher construction costs than a decade ago. The C$34bn TMX put into service in May 2024 was originally pegged at C$5.4bn in 2013, even less than Northern Gateway as TMX was the twinning of an existing system. This would be a big hurdle to clear, even if governments were to allay regulatory concerns. But with an unpredictable Trump returning to the White House, the prospect of shipping more Canadian crude west might soon hold a heightened appeal. By Brett Holmes Canadian oil production Canadian upstream investment Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India's coal output hits all-time high in 2024


13/01/25
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13/01/25

India's coal output hits all-time high in 2024

Singapore, 13 January (Argus) — India's coal production hit an all-time high last year, led by an uptick in utility demand and a broader government push to boost domestic output. Combined coal output from domestic sources such as state-controlled Coal India (CIL), Singareni Collieries (SCCL) and captive blocks reached 1.04bn t in calendar year 2024, up by 7pc or 70.4mn t from a year earlier, according to Argus calculations based on coal ministry data. This supported overall supplies, including supplies to utilities and the non-power sector, which reached 1.01bn t, from 950.2mn t in 2023. The steady increase in domestic coal output and supplies was also led by demand from utilities, as the country's coal-fired generation rose last year, and generators continued to replenish stocks to meet the rising power demand. The strong output also followed India's broader goal to raise local coal production, with an aim to trim imports and meet its broader energy security objective. Delhi has been pushing CIL to ramp up its output, while also seeking higher production from blocks allocated to utilities and the non-power sector. The growth in production and supplies likely weighed on thermal coal imports in 2024, with seaborne receipts estimated to have dropped last year, a first annual decline since 2021. The dip in India's demand for seaborne cargoes in a well-supplied market was reflected in recent prices, with the GAR 4,200 kcal/kg market for geared Supramaxes falling to a 44-month low of $49.43/t fob Kalimantan on 27 December, the last assessment of 2024. The market eased further to $49.25/t fob Kalimantan on 10 January. Output mix Production at state-controlled CIL stood at 785.2mn t in calendar year 2024, up from 756.1mn t a year earlier, while its supplies totalled 757.4mn t in the 12-month period, up from 738.6mn t in 2023, according to Argus calculations based on the company's monthly output data. State-owned SCCL produced 67.12mn t in 2024, down by 4pc or 2.5mn t in 2023, the coal ministry data showed. But this was more than offset by steady growth in coal production at captive coal blocks allocated to industrial coal consumers, state-government mining companies and some utilities. Coal output from the captive blocks rose to about 187mn t last year, up from 143.3mn t in 2023, the data showed. The higher captive coal production followed an increase in production from coal blocks allocated to state-controlled utility NTPC , which aims to become one of India's biggest coal producers in coming years. India's policy to auction coal mines for commercial mining by private companies is also beginning to support the overall captive coal output. Supply mix Combined domestic coal supplies to utilities from CIL, SCCL and captive blocks reached 831.44mn t, up by 6pc from a year earlier, the coal ministry data showed. India's coal-fired generation — which meets most of its power requirements — reached 1,293.19TWh last year, up by 5pc from a year earlier, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data show. Overall domestic coal supplies to non-power consumers such as steel and cement totalled about 179mn t last year, up by 13pc from 2023, according to the coal ministry data. Supplies to captive power units fall under non-power sector as per the data. By Saurabh Chaturvedi India's coal suppy mix (mn t) India's coal output mix (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s inflation decelerates to 4.83pc in December


10/01/25
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10/01/25

Brazil’s inflation decelerates to 4.83pc in December

Sao Paulo, 10 January (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to 4.83pc at the end of 2024, as declines in power costs were only partially offset by gains in fuel and food, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 4.87pc in November and compared with 4.76pc in October. The year-end print compared with 4.62pc in December 2023, but was down from 5.79pc in December 2022. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.69pc in December, accounting for much of the monthly increase, following a 7.63pc annual gain in November. Beef costs increased by an annual 20.84pc in December following a 15.43pc annual gain for the prior month. Higher beef costs in the domestic market are related to the Brazilian's real depreciation to the US dollar, with the Brazilian real depreciating by 27.4pc to the US dollar between 31 December 2023 and the same date in 2024 . Still, beef prices decelerated by 5.26pc in December alone, down from 8pc in November. Soybean oil rose by 29.21pc over the year, an increase of 1.64 percentage points from November. Fuel prices rose by an annual 10.09pc in December after an 8.78pc gain in November. Motor fuel costs grew by 0.7pc in December, compared with a 0.15pc drop in the prior month, thanks to higher gasoline prices. Diesel prices increased by 0.66pc in the 12-month period, while it decreased by 2.25pc in November. Gasoline prices — the major individual contributor to the annual high, according to IBGE — rose by 9.71pc in December from 9.12pc in the prior month. Still, that was lower than in December 2023, when the annual inflation for gasoline stood at 11pc. Power costs in December contracted by an annual 0.37pc in December, as improvements in power generation allowed for removal of a surcharge from customer bills, after a gain of 3.46pc the prior month. In November, Brazil faced lower river levels at its hydroelectric plants after a period of severe droughts . Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank in December raised its target rate to 12.25pc from 11.25pc as the real's depreciation accelerated. It also signaled it is likely to increase the rate to 14.25pc by March. Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.52pc in December from 0.39pc in November. But the rate was lower than in December 2023, when it stood at 0.56pc. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels


10/01/25
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10/01/25

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

Washington, 10 January (Argus) — US producers of low-carbon fuels can start claiming the "45Z" tax credit providing up to $1/USG for road use and $1.75/USG for aviation, following the US Treasury Department's release today of proposed guidance for the credit. The guidance includes proposed regulations and other tools to determine the eligibility of fuels for the 45Z tax credit, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace a suite of incentives for biofuels that expired at the end of last year. Biofuel producers have been clamoring for guidance from the US Treasury Department so they can start claiming the tax credit, which is available for fuels produced from 1 January 2025 through the end of 2027. "This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers," US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeymo said. "Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America." The creation of the 45Z tax credit has already prompted a change in US biofuels markets by shifting federal subsidies from blenders to producers. Because the value of tax credit increases for fuels with the lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it could encourage refiners to source more waste feedstocks such as used cooking oil, rather than conventional crop-based feedstocks. While the guidance is still just a proposal, taxpayers are able to "immediately" use the guidance to claim the 45Z tax credit, until Treasury issues additional guidance, an administration official said. The guidance on 45Z released today affirms that only the producer for the fuel is eligible to claim the credit, not blenders. To be eligible for the tax credit, the fuel must have a "practical or commercial fitness for use in a highway vehicle or aircraft" by itself or when blended into a mixture, Treasury said. Marine diesel and methanol suitable for highway or aircraft use are also eligible for 45Z, as is renewable natural gas that can be used as a transportation fuel. Treasury also released an "annual emissions rate table" offering providers a methodology for determining the lifecycle GHG of fuel. Treasury said a key emissions model from the US Department of Energy, called 45ZCF-GREET, used to calculate the value of the 45Z tax credit is anticipated to be released today, although industry officials said it may be delayed until next week. Treasury said it intends to propose regulations at "a future date" for calculating the GHG emissions benefits of "climate smart agriculture" practices for "cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks" for fuel. Those regulations could lower the calculated lifecycle emissions of fuel from those crop-based feedstocks and increase the relative 45Z tax credit. US biofuel producers said they are still awaiting key details on the 45Z tax credit, including the update to the GREET model. Among the outstanding questions is if the guidance released today provides "enough certainty to negotiate feedstock and fuel offtake agreements going forward", said the Clean Fuels America Alliance, an industry group that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries. It is unclear how president-elect Donald Trump intends to approach this proposed approach for the 45Z credit, which will be subject to a 90-day public comment period. Trump has promised to "rescind all unspent funds" from the Inflation Reduction Act. But outright repealing 45Z would leave biofuels producers and farmers without a subsidy they say is needed to sustain growth, after the expiration last year of a $1/USG blender tax credit and a tax credit of up to $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel. Biofuel and soybean groups were unsuccessful in a push last year to extend the expiring biofuel tax credits. The 45Z credit is likely to be debated in Congress this year, as Republicans consider repealing parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans have already asked for input on revisions to the 45Z credit, signaling they could modify the incentive. In a tightly divided Congress, farm-state lawmakers may hold enough leverage to ensure some type of biofuel incentive — and potentially one friendlier to agricultural producers than 45Z — survives. By Chris Knight and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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