News
23/06/25
Potential Hormuz closure threatens ferts, sulphur trade
Potential Hormuz closure threatens ferts, sulphur trade
London, 23 June (Argus) — Iran's threat to "close" the strait of Hormuz in
response to the US military attack on its nuclear sites over the weekend risks
disrupting 20-50pc of international trade in urea, sulphur, phosphate and
ammonia. The risk is primarily to buyers of fertilizer and associated raw
materials outside the Mideast Gulf as, with the exception of sulphuric acid,
potash and some niche products, the flow of trade is dominated by exports. Fully
half of global seaborne sulphur trade originates from the Mideast Gulf — 20mn t
this year, according to Argus Analytics — which goes primarily to China, Morocco
and Tunisia, and for mining users in southern and central Africa. Sulphur is a
key raw material for making phosphate fertilizers. Some substitution for sulphur
by merchant sulphuric acid is possible but the sulphuric acid markets are
already tight. Urea markets also have a substantial degree of exposure to
potential disruption to shipments from the Mideast Gulf, with around a third of
seaborne trade supplied from the region. Exports from the Mideast Gulf are
forecast at around 18mn t this year by Argus Analytics , from a global total of
56mn t. The major destinations for Middle East urea during the third quarter
each year are typically Brazil, India, Thailand and Australia. Ammonia exports
from the Mideast Gulf account for around a fifth of global trade. Shipments this
year from Mideast Gulf producers averaged around 365,000 t/month, according to
Argus ' tracking of loaded vessels, with the main buyers being fertilizer
producers in India and Morocco, which have taken 830,000t and 315,000t,
respectively, and mostly industrial buyers in South Korea, which have taken
335,000t. For phosphates, the main risk is to the supply of MAP and DAP from
Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden produces around 20pc of the 17mn t/yr of
seaborne trade in MAP and 14pc of the 12mn t/yr of DAP trade, with India
typically the largest recipient of the latter, in terms of quantity, during the
third quarter. All DAP and MAP shipments, plus some NPS, are loaded from Ras
al-Khair. On the import side, the greatest impact from any disruption to
shipments in the region would be on sulphuric acid. Ma'aden is expected to
import around 700,000t of sulphuric acid through Ras al-Khair in 2025, and
line-up data show nearly 500,000t of acid will be shipped in the first seven
months of the year, mainly from Asia-Pacific origins such as west coast India
and China. Few alternative loading mechanisms are available to bypass any
disruption to the strait of Hormuz. The UAE port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman
can load bulk cargoes, but in the event of significant regional disruption the
port might not be able to prioritise fertilizer exports over other commodities.
It is also on the far side of the country from the urea and sulphur production
facilities. Saudi Arabia has several Red Sea ports, but distances overland from
production sites close to the Mideast Gulf make this route operationally and
commercially challenging. The threat of disruption has so far not prevented
trade in and stevedoring of cargoes within the region — including shipments from
Iran's ports of Bandar Imam Khomeini and Asaluyeh — which continued over the
weekend. By Bede Heren Mideast Gulf fertilizer and related raw material exports
Product Exports (t/yr) % of seaborne trade Sulphur 20,058 50 Urea 17,978 32
Ammonia 3,635 21 MAP 3,480 20 includes exports from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE — Argus Analytics Mideast Gulf ports Send comments and
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