Equinor scales back renewables plan

Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
05/02/25

Norwegian state-controlled Equinor said today it has cut by up to 25pc its target for renewables capacity by 2030, and abandoned a plan to allocate half its capital expenditure (capex) to low carbon projects by that same year.

The company has cut its 2030 expected renewables capacity to 10-12GW, from 12-16GW, noting that the pace of the energy transition is slower in some markets. It did not give a new target for capex allocation to this sector.

Equinor also modified some net carbon intensity goals, setting ranges rather than absolute targets. It now plans to reduce net carbon intensity — which includes scope 3 emissions, from sold products — by 15-20pc by 2030 and by 30-40pc by 2035, from a 2019 baseline. The previous targets were at the higher end of these ranges.

Equinor made a profit of $8.83bn in 2024, down by 26pc on the year. Profit was $1.99bn in the fourth quarter, lower on the year by 23pc.

The company's oil and gas output was slightly lower in 2024, with a small increase in gas production not quite offsetting lower liquids output. Equinor's equity liquids production was 1.08mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2024, down by 3pc on the year, and its equity gas production rose by 2pc to 985,000 boe/d over the same timeframe.

It expects "more than 10pc growth from 2024-27" in oil and gas production, and estimated that hydrocarbons output would grow by 4pc from 2024 to 2025.

Liquids and gas prices fell in 2024. Equinor's reported Norwegian and US gas prices rose by 5pc and 26pc, respectively, on the year in the October-December period, but this was not enough to assuage a decrease across the year. The average reported price for its Norwegian gas dropped by 22pc on the year to $9.47/mn Btu in 2024, and the average reported price for its US gas decreased by 4pc to $1.70/mn Btu.

Equinor reported an average liquids price of $74.1/bl in 2024, 1pc lower on the year. Its reported fourth-quarter 2024 liquids price fell by 10pc from the same period in 2023, to $68.5/bl.

Equinor's power generation rose in 2024, boosted by additions in Brazil and Poland in 2023 and the start of the 531MW Mendubim solar plant in Brazil in 2024. Equinor's share of power generation stood at 4,917GWh in 2024, up by 19pc on the year — but its renewables share rose faster, by 51pc to 2,935GWh.

Equinor has maintained its target of 30mn-50mn t/yr of CO2 storage by 2035.

Equinor trimmed 600,000 t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from its absolute scope 1 and 2 — or operational — emissions over 2023-4. Scope 1 and 2 emissions from its operated production stood at 11mn t/CO2e in 2024. The company's upstream carbon intensity fell to 6.2kg CO2/boe in 2024, down by 7.5pc on the year.

Equinor will buy back $5bn of shares in 2025, having bought $6bn in 2024. It completed the fourth $1.6bn tranche of its 2024 programme on 14 January and will launch the first tranche — of up to $1.2bn — of its 2025 programme on 6 February.

By Georgia Gratton

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13/06/25

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update

13/06/25

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13/06/25

Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 13 June (Argus) — Israel continued to attack nuclear facilities in Iran and Tehran retaliated with missile strikes against Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel on a day that saw sharp escalation across the world's largest oil producing region. Israel's Air Force said today it completed another round of attacks against Iran while prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country will continue attacking Iran "as long as necessary". The latest Israeli attack, following broader strikes in the early hours Friday, targeted a nuclear facility near Isfahan in Iran's northwest, according to Israel's Air Force post on social media platform X at 8:40pm local time (5:40pm GMT). A barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles landed in Tel Aviv in late evening hours Friday local time, as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it will deliver a "crushing and precise response" to Israeli strikes that decapitated Iran's military leadership, knocked out the country's air defense and caused some damage to the country's nuclear programme facilities. The exchange of air and missile strikes has so far spared oil infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere in the region. Israel has halted production at two of its major natural gas fields and cut pipeline exports to Egypt following the attack on Iran. Crude market participants said they were concerned that Israeli attacks on Iran could extend beyond the existing military targets and nuclear infrastructure, and target the country's oil fields and facilities. The July Nymex WTI contract was trading near $73/bl at 3pm ET, about 8pc above yesterday's settlement price. Israel's military said earlier in the day that it intercepted a barrage of drones launched from Iran and Yemen. The ballistic missiles Iran used later in the evening are faster moving and harder to intercept, said former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf. Iran last used them to attack Israel in October 2024. "We must give a strong response," Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said before the Iranian missile strikes on Israel. "They shouldn't imagine that they've attacked us and that everything is over now." What next? The immediate aftermath of the attack on Iran, launched in the early hours Friday local time, points to a serious toll in leadership ranks, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander-in-chief Hossein Salami and Iran's army chief, Mohammad Bagheri. US president Donald Trump convened a national security council meeting at 11am ET today, with no readout yet on any potential measures it could take in response to a hike in oil prices. US forces across the Middle East are on alert and the US administration pledged to help defend Israel from further attacks. The conflict has the potential to spread to neighboring countries and Trump's sidelining or forced retirement of professional diplomats at the State Department and the White House national security council leaves his administration with fewer resources to dial down tensions or to prevent Israel from taking drastic steps, Leaf said during a discussion hosted by think tank the Middle East Institute. "Iraq is in the bull's eye," said Leaf, who left the State Department in January. "The Gulf states are obviously very vulnerable. Egypt and Israel have been acutely threatened by the conflict in Gaza, and this kind of adds a new pile on, but I worry about Iraq." The apparent initial success of Israel's military operation could prompt Netanyahu to press his advantage against Iran and "one of my concerns would be that... the drive to go forward toward regime change will be just too tempting," Leaf said. "This is a country of 83 million people. It's not a non-state actor like Hezbollah" in Lebanon, she said. "As immense an achievement it was for the Israel Defense Forces to take Hezbollah apart, it is not the same thing as really decapitating a country and then seeing how it all works out." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Jera signs LNG supply agreements with the US

13/06/25

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13/06/25

Japan’s Jera signs LNG supply agreements with the US

Singapore, 13 June (Argus) — Japanese power producer Jera said this week that it has signed multiple long-term LNG supply agreements with US partners over the past two months, to procure up to 5.5mn t/yr over 20 years. This includes 2mn t/yr from NextDecade and 1mn t/yr from Commonwealth LNG. It also signed non-binding interim agreements with Sempra Infrastructure for 1.5mn t/yr and with developer Cheniere for 1mn t/yr. The deals offer competitive pricing and flexible contract terms. All supply will be delivered on a fob basis priced against the US' Henry Hub, allowing Jera to optimise shipping routes and respond flexibly to domestic demand and market conditions, the company said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Law's sunset not an end for Argentina's renewables

13/06/25

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13/06/25

Law's sunset not an end for Argentina's renewables

Buenos Aires, 13 June (Argus) — A law meant to increase renewable energy in Argentina will expire at the end of 2025 without meeting its target and with little hope of renewal, but other incentives may still bolster the sector. Law 27191, passed in 2015 to extend earlier legislation, called for renewable sources to reach at least 20pc of Argentina's energy mix by the end of its 2025 expiry. The legislation covers biogas, biomass, solar, wind and hydroelectric plants under 50MW of capacity. Renewables have expanded more than other technologies, increasing to 6,672MW of installed capacity at the end of last year from 381MW in 2003, but still far from the goal. Renewable sources accounted for 15pc of installed capacity at the end of 2024 and covered 16pc of demand, according to the state-owned energy wholesale company, Cammesa. New capacity is being added and renewables should come close to meeting the demand target — renewables covered 21pc of demand in April, according to Cammesa, and 572MW in new solar and wind capacity came online in June alone. But it is unclear what comes next as the government deregulates the economy and pulls back from market intervention. Marcelo Alvarez, head of the solar power committee for Cader, Argentina's renewable energy association, said that there is no indication six months before the law's expiration that it will be extended. "I do not think they are going to extend Law 27191," he said. "The government is not interested in anything that conditions or interferes with the free-market dynamic and [Law] 27191, with its model of quotas with fiscal incentives, goes against its ideological thinking." But the government's change in policy approach could help address some of the main infrastructure and economic problems that hampered the installation of more renewable sources. Argentina has some of the world's best solar and wind potential, according to Alvarez, but it does not have the transmission lines to get power from new plants into the grid. "The system is basically saturated and we are really going to hit a wall if we do not start to build new lines now," said Alvarez. President Javier Milei's government announced in late May a plan for new transmission lines, but the private sector would need to do the work. The plan includes 15 500kV lines that would cover 5,610km and increase the existing grid's scope by 38pc at a cost of $6.6bn. The government is also moving forward with a tender started by the previous administration for a battery energy storage system (BESS) for 500MW, one of the largest in Latin America. The winning bids should be announced in August, according to the most recent timeline. The critical point for any project is financing, which Alvarez said remains difficult and expensive in Argentina despite recent changes. He said that interest rates for a 100MW project in Argentina are around 8pc, while in neighboring Chile they can be as low as 3pc. The Milei government has started to tackle major issues, bringing inflation down to 47.4pc annualized through April from nearly 300pc in 2024, eliminating regulations on financing and exports and reducing currency controls. It also has in place an investment and legal stability mechanism, known as Rigi, to attract large-scale investment for projects over $200mn. It has awarded one power project so far, the 305MW El Quemado solar park planned by state-owned YPF. "The cost and length of financing are major obstacles," Alvarez said. "It is going to take time to lower the cost of capital." By Lucien Chauvin Argentina's renewable power capacity MW Technology End 2024 Apr 25 Wind 4,319 4,342 Solar 1,673 1,909 Small hydro 524 524 Biogas/biomass 155 192 — Cammesa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May

13/06/25

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13/06/25

Opec+ output rises by 360,000 b/d in May

London, 13 June (Argus) — Crude production by Opec+ members with output targets rose by 360,000 b/d last month, driven by Saudi Arabia and South Sudan, Argus estimates. Output rose to 34.33mn b/d in May, the highest in 15 months and 760,000 b/d above six months ago. But it was still 70,000 b/d below the group's collective target for the month. Further increases are on the way. Eight Opec+ members — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" additional cuts in April with an initial increase of 137,000 b/d. They followed this by tripling the scheduled monthly increases to 411,000 b/d for May, June and July . If they continue at this rate, the group could fully unwind its cuts by October, 11 months earlier than planned. The decisions to return more oil to an increasingly uncertain market took observers by surprise, particularly given subdued oil prices and the bleak economic outlook driven by US president Donald Trump's tariff policies. The group says the output rises are based on "healthy market fundamentals" and "low oil inventories". But the eight members have also stressed the actual output increases will be partially offset by members that have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. This is now being borne out. The eight members boosted their combined output by 190,000 b/d in May — less than the 411,000 b/d increase to their collective target for the month. Russia and Iraq are key reasons for the lower output, with both having pledged to compensate for significant past overproduction. Iraq kept its output flat at 3.94mn b/d — 110,000 b/d below its May target. While this was still 30,000 b/d above the country's target under the latest publicly available compensation plan , it marks a big improvement on previous months. Russia's output also remained unchanged at 8.98mn b/d, 100,000 b/d below its target and 20,000 b/d below its compensation-related target. The UAE also made considerable compensation effort. The country's output fell by 10,000 b/d to 2.93mn b/d — 70,000 b/d below its compensation-related target. And while Saudi Arabia increased its output by a hefty 140,000 b/d, this was 50,000 b/d below its target for the month. The country is expected to be the main driver of the alliance's output increases in the coming months, particularly given that it does not have any compensation-related cuts to make. The outlier Kazakhstan continues to stick out like a sore thumb, with its output still at near-record levels. The country's production rose by 10,000 b/d to 1.83mn b/d in May — 340,000 b/d above its target for the month and a whopping 460,000 b/d above its compensation-related target. Kazakhstan is not expected to make any meaningful production cuts in the coming months. A large part of the alliance's wider output increase was driven by South Sudan, which resumed exports of Dar Blend in late April. Production of the grade was shut in for more than a year owing to problems affecting the pipeline that carries the crude to war-torn Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red Sea. The resumption of flows boosted output to 150,000 b/d in May, the highest since March 2024. Another notable boost came from Iran which, like Venezuela and Libya, is exempt from output targets. Iran's production rose by 30,000 b/d to 3.42mn b/d — the highest since August 2018, when the country's output began to fall owing to the reimposition of sanctions by Trump during his first term. Venezuela's output fell by 30,000 b/d to 930,000 b/d. Further output falls are around the corner , with the US tightening sanctions on the South American country. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Non-Opec 9 12.82 12.71 12.76 +0.06 Total Opec+ 18 34.33 33.97 34.40 -0.07 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Opec wellhead production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Saudi Arabia 9.15 9.01 9.20 -0.05 Iraq 3.94 3.94 4.05 -0.11 Kuwait 2.43 2.40 2.44 -0.01 UAE 2.94 2.95 3.02 -0.08 Algeria 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.00 Nigeria 1.58 1.55 1.50 +0.08 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.27 0.25 0.28 -0.01 Gabon 0.22 0.20 0.17 +0.05 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.05 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.51 21.26 21.64 -0.13 Iran 3.42 3.39 na na Libya 1.38 1.34 na na Venezuela 0.93 0.96 na na Total Opec 12^ 27.24 26.95 na na *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d May Apr* May target† ± target Russia 8.98 8.98 9.08 -0.10 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.77 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.45 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.83 1.82 1.49 +0.34 Malaysia 0.36 0.35 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.15 0.06 0.12 +0.03 Total non-Opec 12.82 12.71 12.76 0.06 *revised †includes additional cuts but excludes compensation cuts Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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