Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low

  • Market: Fertilizers
  • 24/03/25

Global fertilizer affordability has dropped to its lowest in two and a half years, driven by firm phosphate and potash prices, while crop values have dipped to the lowest since 2020.

Nutrient affordability fell to 0.82 points in March, the lowest since November 2022, Argus data show.

An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability.

The index has dropped owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates and potash, which were partly offset by a decline in urea prices. Crop prices have fallen for all major grains and oilseeds on trade tensions.

Phosphate prices were supported by competing demand for limited supply. The absence of Chinese product from the global phosphates market since late 2024 has kept supply tight.

Additionally, a lack of clarity surrounding China's return to the export market, while firm sulphur and sulphuric acid costs force domestic DAP/MAP prices higher, has prevented any softer sentiment in the region.

Competition between India and Ethiopia has driven DAP demand east of Suez. A significant decline in stocks in India by the end of its high season forced buyers to remain in the market during the off season. This coincided with Ethiopia switching to import DAP from NPS from the third quarter of 2024, seeking over 1mn t of the product across regular tenders.

Re-emerging interest from Latin America, and with China still out of the market, has allowed suppliers to raise MAP prices, while US DAP/MAP barge prices are firming again ahead of spring applications.

On potash, MOP prices have been on the up this year, also driven by tight supply.

Belarus' Belaruskali began major works at its fourth mine in January, which will reduce exports of white MOP by around 1mn t in the first half of 2025. In February, Uralkali announced that it will undertake maintenance in the second quarter that will cut its MOP output by around 300,000 t/yr, further cementing the stronger market sentiment.

It also said it will push more product — at least 400,000t of MOP — to the domestic market in 2025. Canpotex also confirmed that it is fully committed for the first half of this year, while uncertainty over tariffs on US imports of Canadian imports also drove up sentiment.

MOP prices have been particularly low compared with other key nutrients, specifically phosphate and nitrogen products. And expectations that MOP prices are likely to rise further have encouraged buyers to step into the market earlier and for larger amounts than normal as affordability remains healthy.

Urea prices have fallen steadily in March, after hitting 16-month highs in mid-February.

The combination of a delayed tender issuance from India, with expectations initially appearing in early February, and the restart of Iranian urea production this month — after outages since December — have weighed on sentiment following a price rise since early December.

The lack of a tender in India has enabled US importers to build the line-up for the spring season, releasing pressure on buyers for March-loading cargoes. And a lack of spot import interest in urea from Australia, which appeared earlier than usual in the first quarter of last year, has yet to tighten the balance significantly east of Suez.

On the other hand, crop prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans have fallen sharply in March, with the crop index — which includes global prices adjusted by output volumes — dropping to the lowest since August 2020 partly on uncertainty over trade dynamics following the imposition of trade tariffs.

There is a risk that declining grain prices will weigh on demand for crop inputs.

Global fertilizer affordability Index

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
29/04/25

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

Kingston, 29 April (Argus) — Major LNG exporter Trinidad and Tobago's new government wants to open discussions with the administration of US president Donald Trump on access to natural gas fields on the border with Venezuela. United National Congress (UNC) party leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar will be the new prime minister of the Caribbean state of 1.5mn people after the party won Monday's general election, ending 10 years of administration by the People's National Congress (PNC) party of Stuart Young. The UNC won 26 seats in the 41-member assembly. "We will work with the Trump administration to see how the discussions with the Venezuelan government on the cross-border gas fields can be reopened," the UNC's energy spokesman David Lee said. Lee is expected to be appointed the energy minister. "We do not have any closed doors on this matter," Lee said. "We will directly engage the US so it will be confident in working with us on resolving our cross-border issues." Trinidad and Tobago's gas-short economy was set back earlier this month by the Trump government's revocation of licenses granted by the administration of former US president Joe Biden to Trinidad. The waivers exempted certain work to develop two gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela from US sanctions. Access to the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields is "vital" to reversing Trinidad's fall in gas production, Young said. Trinidad has been struggling to recover natural gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a peak of 4.3 Bcf/d in 2010. Gas output in 2024 was 2.53 Bcf/d, and the fall in output suppressed LNG, petrochemical and fertilizer production. Trinidad's 2024 LNG production of 16.7mn m³ was down by 4.6pc on 2023, according to the latest energy ministry data. The 11.8mn t/yr Atlantic liquefaction plant in southwestern Trinidad, which is majority owned by Shell and BP, is Trinidad's sole LNG producer. Crude production has also declined, moving from a peak of 144,400 b/d in 2005 to 50,854 b/d in 2024, according to the energy ministry. The decline in crude feedstock contributed to the 2018 shutdown of the state-owned 160,000 b/d Guaracara refinery. Young's administration failed at several attempts to engage foreign investors to reopen the plant. The government last month selected Nigerian privately owned oil and gas company Oando to lease and operate the refinery. But the incoming UNC administration will terminate negotiations with Oando to reopen the refinery and will seek new investors for the plant, the party said. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land


28/04/25
News
28/04/25

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

Sao Paulo, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil's finance, environment and agriculture ministries will host a second auction to recover 1mn hectares (ha) of degraded lands in all Brazilian biomes except the Amazon, the national treasury said on Monday. The auction will be a part of Eco Invest, a currency-hedging program targeting renewable and low-carbon projects to draw foreign investment, announced in February 2024. The finance ministry and central bank developed the program with the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. The auction is part of New Brazil, a wider energy transition project within the finance ministry. The project aims to finance conversions of degraded lands in different biomes to sustainable and productive ecosystems through private investments. The Amazon biome, the most hit by deforestation, will receive a "customized and exclusive auction" that will be announced later, the environment ministry said. Participants must submit project proposals to the national treasury by 13 June. The government expects to raise up to R10bn ($1.76bn) in the auction. Land-use change and deforestation Emissions from land-use change and deforestation in Brazil reached 1.06bn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2023, down by 24pc from a year earlier, according to greenhouse gas tracking platform SEEG. These activities have been leading Brazil's total emissions since 1990 — when historic tracking began — followed by agriculture and cattle raising and the energy sectors. There are currently 280mn ha of farmlands, of which around 29pc are degraded. The government aims to recover up to 40mn ha of grasslands in the next 10 years, the environment and climate change ministry said. The Eco Invest auction will finance the first round of the initiative, dubbed the Green Way program, according to the agriculture ministry. Brazil aims to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 67pc by 2035 from its 2005 levels and sees reducing deforestation as one of its main ways to achieve that goal. The country will host the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem city, in the Amazon biome, as the administration looks to lead the global energy transition . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Little impact on Iran urea exports from port explosion


28/04/25
News
28/04/25

Little impact on Iran urea exports from port explosion

London, 28 April (Argus) — Iran's urea exports are likely to be little affected by the explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas port on 26 April, with impacts limited to cargoes in container. Most of Iran's urea exports are in bulk, so the impact to exports should be a curtailment of 50,000-150,000t in May. Loading and discharging activities of bulk cargoes have resumed today at Bandar Abbas. It is not clear how long it will take for full operations at the port to resume, but some local market participants expect this by the end of May. Producers Shiraz and Khorasan are the main exporters from Bandar Abbas port, while Lordegan, Kermanshah, MIS and Razi mainly export from Bandar Imam Khomeini. Pardis exports urea mainly from Assaluye. Both Bandar Iman Khomeini and Assaluye ports are currently operating normally. The explosion , which occurred in the sulphur storage area of the port, has led to force majeure being declared on exports from the port. By Dana Hjeij Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March


28/04/25
News
28/04/25

China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March

Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — China's NP/NPS exports jumped by more than eightfold to an all-time high of about 614,000t over January-March, latest trade data show, as it is a more affordable alternative to DAP/MAP, given tighter phosphate export availability and higher fertilizer prices globally. This was largely driven by record-high shipments to Brazil and India in the first quarter, both of which did not receive any NP/NPS exports a year earlier. Shipments to Brazil and India reached 315,000t and 94,000t respectively in January-March. China exported more formulas, including NP 8-40-0, to Brazil so far this year as a lower-priced alternative to MAP, given higher fertilizer prices in Brazil. Indian importers are also seeking more NPKs and NPS, such as 20-20-0+13S, because of a lack of DAP fertilizer supply out of China. Such imports into India also allow the importer to maintain a positive margin under the current subsidy and maximum retail price, as compared to importing DAP. China's NPK exports over January-March also nearly tripled from a year earlier to 169,000t, which is also a four-year high, largely driven by an eightfold increase in shipments to the Philippines, its largest importer at about 63,000t. Favourable weather conditions this year led to more local rice production, according to the Philippines' Department of Agriculture, likely contributing to an increase in demand for complex fertilizers. The El Niño phenomenon hit the Philippines in the first quarter of 2024, when prolonged periods of dry spells damaged about 780,000 hectares of crops across 271,000t of agricultural land, which likely affected fertilizer demand and affordability last year. Lower prices of 16-20 from China in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, according to Argus , also likely boosted affordability levels. Some Chinese DAP producers have switched their production line to producing NP/NPS to cater to the growing demand from overseas buyers, alongside the end of the domestic spring season and slowing domestic demand for DAP. The lack of clarity on DAP/MAP exports also supported Chinese phosphate producers in pivoting to more NP/NPS exports . Exports availability of phosphates may reduce shipments of NP/NPS in favour of DAP/MAP. Suppliers are also expecting more demand from Brazil this year, according to market participants, as China is likely to import more soybeans from Brazil in light of recent tariffs imposed on US imports. Firm DAP prices in India are also likely to continue pushing Indian importers to buy more NP/NPS. Importers in India have cancelled at least three sales of DAP above $690/t cfr from Russia and Tunisia. But there was no confirmation of the cancellations from the suppliers. By Camila Tay China NP/NPS exports 2024 (t) Brazil India Australia Vietnam Others Total January 60,600 26,500 38,196 16,219 10,514 152,029 February 129,553 0 12,520 13,993 68,689 224,755 March 124,680 67,900 0 15,481 29,524 237,585 Total 314,833 94,400 50,716 45,693 108,727 614,369 Source: GTT China NPK exports 2024 (t) Philippines Myanmar Laos Australia Others Total January 24,064 8,654 8,977 832 23,449 65,976 February 3,168 12,080 2,628 286 18,916 37,078 March 35,640 10,744 2,009 15,481 2,315 66,189 Total 62,872 31,478 13,614 16,599 44,680 169,243 Source: GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Norway’s Yara fertilizer output, deliveries rise in 1Q


25/04/25
News
25/04/25

Norway’s Yara fertilizer output, deliveries rise in 1Q

London, 25 April (Argus) — Norwegian fertilizer producer Yara posted an increase in its output, earnings and deliveries in January-March compared with the previous year. Yara's finished-fertilizer output in the first quarter rose to 4.9mn t, up by 6pc on the year, driven by increased demand. Yara's financial year runs from January to December. Yara's first-quarter urea production stood at just over 1.1mn t, down by 5pc on the year, while nitrate output jumped to 1.48mn t, up by 19pc on the year. First-quarter NPK output also rose to 1.59mn t, up by 7pc on the year. Its ammonia output in the quarter stood at 1.72mn t, marking a slight 1pc decline from the 1.74mn t produced a year earlier. Yara's first-quarter fertilizer deliveries rose to 5.8mn t, up by 10pc on the year, mainly driven by Europe and Brazil. Its first-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda), excluding special items, stood at $638mn, a jump of 47pc from a year ago, owing to increased deliveries, mainly driven by Europe and Brazil, higher margins and reduced fixed costs. US tariffs limit impact on urea markets Although the geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly, the US tariffs announced in April have had a "limited impact on the global urea markets so far but could lead to altering trade flows", according to Yara. The producer's imports into the US are limited and represent less than 5pc of consolidated revenues and delivered volumes, it said. Yara said that it is prioritising higher-return core assets and is therefore targeting a reduction of fixed cost and capex of $150mn by the end of 2025. The producer said that it is on track to ensure that the fixed cost run-rate inflation of $2.38bn pre-2026 will be achieved. Yara expects to see a tightening global supply balance in the future as industry projections for supply growth for 2025 onwards are significantly below trend consumption growth. "Combined with strong demand fundamentals, this indicates a tightening global supply/demand balance in the coming years, improving European production margins as gas prices are expected to be lower," Yara said. But China's export policy remains a key uncertainty, especially for the short-term global supply/demand balance. By Suzie Skipper Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more