India and Saudi Arabia are to collaborate on the development of two integrated refinery and petrochemical plants in India. The plan was announced after Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met Saudi counterpart Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on 22 April, as part of the India–Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. Saudi Arabia in 2019 pledged to invest $100bn in India in several sectors including energy and petrochemicals. No further details have been provided but the projects could be Indian state-run BPCL's planned facility in Andhra Pradesh and oil firm ONGC's refinery project in Gujarat, according to industry participants. Plans for a 1.2mn b/d refinery in Ratnagiri alongside the UAE's Adnoc have been abandoned because of logistical and land acquisition challenges, industry participants say.
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Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia
Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia
Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Heavy sour Canadian crude exports are likely to expand further into the Asia-Pacific market in 2026 as Canadian output increases and US west coast refinery closures weaken US demand. Around two-thirds of all Canadian crude exports from the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline system were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, with the balance heading to the US west coast. Just over three-quarters of the 375,000 b/d of Canadian heavy crude exports from Vancouver were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, according to data from analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler. The balance out of the Trans Mountain system headed to the US west coast. This is up from a roughly 60/40 split in the second half of 2024 following the 540,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) startup in May of that year. US west coast customers received 80,000 b/d of heavy sour Canadian crude during the first 11 months of 2025, 25pc less than the second half of 2024. This is despite total heavy exports from Vancouver averaging 27pc higher this year so far. Heavy crude exports are expected to keep growing in 2026 as increased western Canadian production meets limited southbound pipeline capacity to the US. In January 2026, Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge rejected 13pc of heavy and light crude nominations on its 3.1mn b/d Mainline to the US as Alberta production surges in the colder months. But the Trans Mountain system has accepted all crude nominations since TMX came on line in May 2024 and the system has room to export more crude. Trans Mountain reported that the pipeline ran at 87pc capacity in the third quarter of 2025 . Canadian crude and condensate production is projected to average a record-high of 4.85mn b/d in 2026, 80,000 b/d above 2025 levels, according to Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. China thirst for heavy grows Any increase in exports is expected to head towards the Asia-Pacific region, specifically China. Chinese interest in heavy crude is expected to grow next year as refineries bring on line increasingly advanced cracking units to improve petrochemical yields . This increase in petrochemical output will come at the expense of road fuels, as rising electric vehicle use and low construction-sector activity hit Chinese gasoline and diesel demand. Heavy Canadian crude tends to be the most competitively-priced, unsanctioned option for Chinese refiners. Asia-Pacific buyers more generally have sought Canadian heavy crude as a substitute for restrained supplies of heavy sour Venezuelan Merey and Arab Heavy. Saudi Arabia's state-owned Saudi Aramco may be keeping more heavy crude for refining, while market confidence in Merey supply is weak following a US seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on 10 December and the US declaring a blockage on Venezuela exports on 16 December. Meanwhile, shipments of Arab Heavy have dropped by 280,000 b/d to around 560,000 b/d this year, according to Vortexa data. As Asia-Pacific interest in Canadian crude continues to grow, US west coast demand will continue to fall. On the heels of Phillips 66 closing its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles, California, refinery, Valero is likely to shutter its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco in April 2026. Valero is evaluating alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. At the start of 2025, these three refineries made up 23pc of Californian refinery capacity, and combined took 30,000 b/d of Cold Lake during January-June 2025, according to EIA data. As available Canadian crude supplies grow, the ability to fully load Aframax vessels at the Westridge Marine Terminal in British Colombia will allow increased volumes to be exported. Dredging at the terminal is set to be completed by late 2026 or early 2027. Draft restrictions limit most Aframax vessels to around 550,000 bl at the terminal for heavy crude, and 600,000 bl for some lighter crudes. Post-dredging, those same ships could carry around 700,000-750,000 bl. In the long term, Trans Mountain is looking to boost pipeline flows to meet the increased shipping capacity, including the use of drag-reducing agents that should add another 85,000-90,000 b/d by 2027 to pipeline capacity, according to Trans Mountain. By John Cordner Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures
UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures
London, 23 December (Argus) — UK downstream association Fuels Industry UK has urged the government to reallocate unused free CO2 allowances from two recently closed refineries to help remaining plants cope with rising emissions compliance costs. The group wants allowances granted under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth and 105,700 b/d Lindsey refineries to be redistributed. Each allowance permits the holder to emit one tonne of CO2 equivalent. Grangemouth and Lindsey were allocated 441,925 and 541,475 allowances for 2025, respectively. It is unclear how many remain after their closures in April and August. The association warned the sector "may not survive that long" without temporary support, citing carbon costs that exceed those faced by overseas competitors until the UK's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) takes effect. ExxonMobil's 270,000 b/d Fawley refinery — the UK's largest — will spend $70mn-80mn on carbon costs this year, rising to $150mn within five years, the company's UK chair Paul Greenwood told MPs during an Energy Security and Net Zero Committee hearing in October. Fuels Industry UK chief executive Elizabeth de Jong also addressed the committee, highlighting broader cost pressures. It remains unclear whether refined fuels will be covered by the UK CBAM, which starts in January 2027. Fuels Industry UK is seeking confirmation that they be included from January 2028, and it wants additional free UK ETS allowances distributed to sectors not covered by CBAM during a "volatile" period linked to expected UK-EU carbon market linkage. Such linkage would exempt UK and EU from each other's CBAMs, but talks have yet to start. UK refiners have also missed out on government energy price support schemes during the gas price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, de Jong told MPs. Refiners paid market rates to power operations at their UK sites, missing out on discounts afforded to UK companies under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, which ran between October 2022-March 2023, and then under the Energy Bills Discount Scheme between April 2023-March 2024. By contrast, US refiners access natural gas at roughly one-third of UK prices, Greenwood said. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: New PE capacity favorable to buyers in 2026
Viewpoint: New PE capacity favorable to buyers in 2026
Houston, 23 December (Argus) — With 2mn t/yr of new US polyethylene (PE) capacity set to start up in the second half of 2026, pricing power may stay in domestic buyers' hands for much of the year, particularly if producers struggle to find homes for the new resin. Golden Triangle Polymers, a joint venture between Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy, is expected to start up 2mn t/yr of high density polyethylene (HDPE) capacity in Orange, Texas, by the middle of next year, aimed almost entirely at the export market. While the US remains a low-cost producer, the new volume will have to compete with growing global supply, including around 4mn t/yr of new PE capacity projected to start up in Asia in 2026. With the key China market becoming more self-sufficient, it may be difficult for the global market to absorb the new capacity. There are some potential bright spots for US producers in the global market, including the potential for a free-trade agreement with the EU, which would further open up EU countries for more US volume. But if enough new export destinations are not found, market participants have said material will back up in the US/Canada domestic market, keeping supplies loose, and making it difficult for producers to raise domestic contract prices. As new PE capacity has been added in the US, the percentage of sales going to exports has continued to rise. In 2022 — prior to the start-up of more than 3.3mn t/yr of new capacity from Shell, Baystar, Nova and Dow that took place from 2023 through 2025 — total exports averaged 39pc of total sales, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). In 2025, year-to-date through November, exports averaged 48pc of total sales. New capacity is one factor that can cause export prices to decline, as supplies increase in the market. As an example, Dow started up its new 600,000 t/yr HDPE/LLDPE swing unit in Freeport, Texas, in June 2025, with the full ramp-up beginning in July. From July through 12 December, US LLDPE butene export prices declined by around 18pc. Over the same period, US/Canada contract prices held steady every month from July through November, with expectations that December contracts also may settle flat as three US producers have not announced an increase for the month. There were a variety of reasons for the flat contract pricing in the second half of 2025, including weak domestic demand. But one main factor was plentiful supply, and low export prices, as US/Canada producers fought for market share in the global market. "[The US] is so over-supplied," said one US PE buyer. "The economic factors are in the buyers' favor right now." For January, most US/Canada producers have announced price increases of between 5-7¢/lb. Suppliers are expected to push hard for a price increase in January, with many market participants expecting some level of a price increase to stick in the first quarter. But with little expectation for improved demand in 2026, buyers, distributors and traders said they expect the market to remain well-supplied, which will make it difficult for further contract increases. "I think we will continue in a buyers' market for a couple more years," said one US trader. Producers are wary about global oversupply, but believe there will be some additional capacity rationalization in other regions that will help create more export opportunities. Geopolitical events such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Venezuela embargoes, trade tariffs, and anti-dumping duties have contributed as well to a volatile market for finished goods that could also limit demand growth next year. Low ethane/ethylene prices also contribute to lower PE prices but this downward trend is expected to change as US olefins exports increase in 2026, resulting in a more balanced supply/demand market. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Rising premium base oil supply to target EU
Viewpoint: Rising premium base oil supply to target EU
London, 23 December (Argus) — European premium base oil spot prices could face downwards pressure in 2026 from increased competition as global supply rises and import duties are removed. Average Group II European spot prices have fallen steadily since the end of April, by 14pc to €932.50/t assessed on 12 December. This is mostly owing to muted demand but exacerbated by a weakening US dollar against the euro as volumes are bought on a dollar basis and sold in euros in Europe. A persistent supply overhang from the US saw exporters increasingly target European buyers. This trend looks to continue into 2026 as the EU looks to remove a 3.7pc import duty on US Group II shipments. This is part of EU-US tariff negotiations, with EU states showing broad support for the duty removal of a large package of US goods, including base oils. A European parliament vote on this is slated to take place, probably in late January. Europe is a net importer of Group II base oils, with ExxonMobil's 1mn t/yr refinery in Rotterdam the only northwest European production site. Base oil and finished lubricants exports to the EU and UK made up on average 14pc of US total exports since 2020, EIA data show. Freight rates will again play a part in deciding how much product arrives in Europe in 2026. Rates from the US to Europe have been falling since the summer. Argus assessed 40,000t specialised chemical tankers on the route at an average $38.08/t in October, down by 15pc from August, and 5,000t part-cargo assessed rates fell by 10pc in the same time to average $69.50/t. Should rates continue to fall and the EU remove duties, US shipments to Europe are likely to increase. European prices are the highest globally. Supplies of N600 are at a $463.50/t premium to US equivalents and at a $404.50/t premium to Asia bulk, as assessed on 12 December. Global Group II production is likely to rise in 2026. Polish refiner Orlen will expand its Gdansk facility with an additional 450,000 t/yr, Saudi Arabia's Luberef will expand its Yanbu refinery by 100,000 t/yr, and ExxonMobil's Jurong, Singapore, plant expansion is slated to come online fully by year-end 2025. All these will probably target the highest price region, Europe, for their additional capacity. Spot prices for Group I are also ending 2025 on a downwards trend, as weak demand offsets structurally tighter supply. But this could reverse in early 2026. Orlen will undergo a refinery-wide maintenance for 60 days in the first quarter, affecting output at its 250,000 t/yr Group I unit at Gdansk. EU sanctions on refined products using Russian crude has seen diesel prices rise. The price spread of the premiums Group I SN 150 and diesel carry over the feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) narrowed to average $95/t in November, from $233/t in August. Should this continue refiners are likely to prioritise diesel output over base oils. Several European refiners are already pivoting away from base oil production, curbing supply availability and adding upward price pressure. But minimal scheduled maintenances in 2026 is likely to enable supply to recover, and a weak economic outlook should see demand remaining steady. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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