Jet fuel
Overview
Jet fuel market volatility, whether from crude prices, supply issues from refining capacity, or ongoing regulation changes, is a continual risk to your bottom line.
Having a choice in fuel pricing is the best way to mitigate risk and stay on top of market changes. Argus constructs price indexation in a way that is appropriate for each market. By doing so, market participants can align their day-to-day operations, improve management of fuel costs and directly impact their net earnings.
Jet fuel makes up more than 40% of an airline’s total operating expense. The rise in importance of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from government mandates and self-regulations from airlines has a direct implication on these operating costs.
Argus helps the jet fuel market participants to make informed decisions and optimize their strategies with price assessments and information on deals done for conventional jet fuel and SAF, as well as the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, and price forecasts.
Latest jet fuel news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global jet fuel industry.
Cut aviation emissions for Heathrow expansion: UK’s CCC
Cut aviation emissions for Heathrow expansion: UK’s CCC
London, 15 September (Argus) — There is "no credible pathway" for a proposed Heathrow airport expansion that would meet UK climate commitments, unless the government sets policy to ensure the aviation industry reaches net zero emissions by 2050, the parliamentary advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) said today. "Heathrow expansion is not currently compatible with the UK's net zero target. Government needs to ensure that the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it creates and bears the costs of decarbonisation", CCC chair Nigel Topping said. The government should require the aviation industry to abate 100pc of emissions by 2050 before consenting the proposed Heathrow expansion, the CCC said. The aviation sector could reduce its emissions through "greater efficiency and managing demand growth", the CCC said. But "these can only go so far", so sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and engineered greenhouse gas (GHG) removals will also be needed, the committee found. It warned that nature-based removals "are not suitable for offsetting residual aviation emissions because they lack the permanence needed to match very long-lived CO2 emissions". The CCC set out a pathway through which the aviation industry could reach net zero emissions by 2050, incorporating the polluter pays principle. Industry would foot the bill for SAF and engineered removals, "which are assumed to be passed onto ticket prices", the CCC said. The committee warned on SAF and engineered GHG removals, flagging that "there remains uncertainty around their deployment at scale on the timelines required". The government should ensure "contingency policies to allow for delays", the CCC added. Heathrow, west of London, is the UK's largest airport. It accounts for nearly a quarter of UK flights and around half of UK aviation emissions, the CCC said. UK civil aviation emissions are provisionally estimated at 37.2mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, it found. Aviation is the UK's fifth-highest emitting sector. Heathrow aims to secure planning permission by 2029 for its expansion plans, which includes building a third runway. The planned expansion would not be complete until 2054. Non-governmental organisation T&E found this week that "cumulative extra emissions from a third Heathrow runway between 2035 and 2050 would be equivalent to a full year of emissions from Croatia's entire economy". The UK government requested advice from the CCC on the Heathrow expansion. The UK has a legally-binding target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf-China VLCC rate hits record high
US Gulf-China VLCC rate hits record high
New York, 4 September (Argus) — The rate for a bellwether very large crude carrier (VLCC) shipment from the US Gulf coast to China hit its highest level on record today of over $14/bl on strong Asia-Pacific demand, driven by the escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran at the start of Hormuz. Commodity trader ST Shipping put the VLCC Helios on subjects for a US Gulf coast to Asia-Pacific voyage loading from 13-16 October at $29.75mn lumpsum, including $250,000 load-port fees, equivalent to $14.29/bl, boosting the rate for a US Gulf coast-China voyage by $1.15mn day-over-day to that level. This represents the highest level since Argus began its US Gulf coast-China assessment in November 2017. That deal came after Japanese commodity trader Idemitsu put the Maran Apollo on subjects for a US Gulf coast-Japan voyage at $29.25mn, including load-port fees. Norway state-owned refiner Equinor and US independent producer Occidental both put VLCCs on subjects for elsewhere in Asia-Pacific at $27.65mn each, including load-port fees. Charterers have put at least 10 VLCCs on subjects for US Gulf coast to Asia-Pacific voyages since 31 August, including the four from today. Asia-Pacific demand was also high this week for Brazilian crude, with at least eight VLCCs provisionally hired by charterers in that spot market. This was largely driven by strong Chinese restocking demand to keep up with high refined product demand from elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, as Chinese refiners burned through crude stocks, with no end in sight to largely cut-off Mideast Gulf crude flows. The higher competition for Brazilian shipments from these buyers since mid-August likely contributed to the increase in US-loading VLCC demand from Asia-Pacific buyers outside of China like Japan and Taiwan. Midsize rates climb on VLCC spillover The surge in freight rates for the largest crude carrier segment has helped to boost rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers, with the former in particular benefiting from split cargoes from VLCCs in some instances. The rate for a Brazil-Europe Suezmax voyage jumped by 16.5pc day-over-day to Worldscale (WS) 245 today, while US Gulf coast-loading Suezmax shipments into Europe rose by 11pc to WS202.5 from Thursday. Rising freight rates for VLCCs in the west Africa spot market, which shares a tonnage pool with the Brazilian market, encouraged charterers to explore splitting these 2mn bl cargoes onto two 1mn bl Suezmax tankers on 2 September, according to a shipbroker. Meanwhile, Aframax shipments of WTI crude from the US Gulf coast into Europe have been trading at, and even below, parity with VLCC-sized shipments of WTI on the same route on a $/bl basis. Aframax tankers typically trade at a premium to VLCCs in this context given the greater number of ports the smaller tanker can access and its ease in loading and unloading compared to VLCCs. The last time Aframax-sized shipments of WTI into Europe were cheaper than VLCCs on the same route was in February 2021. The surge in VLCC demand from Asia-Pacific will likely encourage US Gulf coast buyers globally to increasingly consider the midsize segment in the near term, maintaining the upward pressure on rates for Aframaxes and Suezmaxes even after the long holiday weekend for US traders. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ryanair cuts winter flights on unhedged fuel exposure
Ryanair cuts winter flights on unhedged fuel exposure
London, 2 September (Argus) — European airline Ryanair will cut services in the coming winter to reduce exposure to higher costs for unhedged jet fuel, and said it may increase ticket prices. Ryanair expects 214mn passengers in the year to 31 March 2027, down from its previous forecast for 216mn. The company did not say how many flights or which routes it will cut, but they will be during the "unprofitable" November-March period when air travel demand stoops to its annual nadir. Ryanair expects passenger demand to be broadly flat year-on-year in this period. Ryanair has hedged 80pc of its jet fuel demand for its 2027 financial year, but significantly higher jet prices means unhedged fuel costs much more. Hedges using crude or gasoil derivatives may be less successful if jet fuel spreads remain wide. Jet fuel prices in northwest Europe averaged almost $1,300/t in August, about 80pc higher on the year, Argus assessments show. The cut to winter services will reduce Ryanair's projected losses over winter by €70mn-100mn ($81mn-116mn), it said. If fuel prices stay high, Ryanair said short-haul airfares will have to rise in Europe. Airlines that are not well-hedged will struggle this winter, it said, which could force them to trim capacity or even lead to their demise. Higher jet fuel prices have weighed heavily on airlines' financial performance , and caused the US' Spirit Airlines to shut down earlier this year. Ryanair still expects to make a profit in its 2027 financial year, although it declined to offer a forecast. The airline made more than €2bn in profit in the 2026 financial year . The airline carried 22.2mn passengers in August, up by 6pc on the year. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Outbound Hormuz transits drop to zero: Update
Outbound Hormuz transits drop to zero: Update
Updates throughout New York, 25 August (Argus) — No vessels exited the strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours while Oman and Iran resume talks on vessel management through the waterway. A total of four vessels entered the strait of Hormuz on 24 August, including three vessels on the northern transit lane and one tanker on the southern lane with no outbound transits recorded, according to maritime security firm Windward.This puts vessel traffic through the waterway at around 3pc of pre-war figures. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi on 24 August arrived in Tehran, where Iran and Oman are currently holding talks on the strait of Hormuz. The two countries issued a joint statement on 25 August saying discussions were held on a proposed framework that includes the establishment of a temporary joint maritime corridor through the strait and an agreement to carry out a joint project for mine clearance. "Technical negotiations between the two sides will continue with the aim of reaching an agreement on a permanent maritime corridor, the future administration of the strait, as well as mechanisms for information exchange, traffic management, and the provision of maritime and security services," the statement reads. Iran and Oman engaged in negotiations at the start of August on management of vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz which would give Iran complete oversight over vessels entering the Mideast Gulf, which prompted the international shipping community to express concern that the proposed plan would fall short of the principles of freedom of navigation. US president Donald Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday that "all mines have been removed and/or detonated from within the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz", warning Iran not to place new mines, citing a "Zero Tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect". Traffic through the strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war at the end of February has largely been bifurcated between the northern Iranian-controlled lane and the southern, US-assisted transit lane, with the center lane used prior to the conflict believed by shippers to be mined. The amount of vessel traffic on the southern lane in particular has come under increased scrutiny in recent weeks with the US claiming higher amounts of traffic through the waterway than can be corroborated independently. There may have been at least one other vessel transit via the southern lane that was aborted after an oil tanker was hit off the coast of Oman, disabling the vessel but leaving the crew uninjured, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO). The strike is likely to be an enforcement action by Iran, which is seeking to consolidate control over traffic through the strait by attacking vessels on its non-preferred transit lanes. Iranian attacks on vessels traveling near Oman have accounted for 14 out of the 16 projectile strike incidents on commercial vessels in the strait reported since 6 July, per UKMTO. Meanwhile, Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority's declaration of 46 vessels as non-compliant is raising concerns that more shipowners may choose to avoid Mideast Gulf trades altogether. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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Weight of Freight: Iron ore, jet fuel and Hormuz effects
The world is firmly focused on the disruptions to crude in the Hormuz strait, but how are other markets reacting?
Weight of Freight: Iron ore, jet fuel and Hormuz effects
The world is firmly focused on the disruptions to crude in the Hormuz strait, but how are other markets reacting?
Running out of options
This insight paper explores Middle East oil supply pressure from Hormuz and Red Sea shipping risks, plus rising demand from China and India.
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