Fertilizers
Overview
The fertilizer industry has seen dramatic changes in market dynamics, with challenges posed by policy and regulatory changes, political instability, conflicts and new macroeconomic realities. The drive towards energy transition and ambitious zero-carbon goals has also opened up the industry to new entrants and new opportunities.
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Another vessel loads with granular urea in Mideast Gulf
Another vessel loads with granular urea in Mideast Gulf
London, 28 October (Argus) — The Al Jurf has loaded with about 54,000t of granular urea from Qatar inside the Mideast Gulf, data from ship tracking firm Kpler show. The vessel is still docked at Mesaieed port. It is likely to be the sixth ship to have loaded with non-Iranian granular urea this month. There are seven vessels carrying about 390,000t of non-Iranian granular urea in the Mideast Gulf, Argus estimates. No vessels loaded with non-Iranian urea have left the Gulf since the Cape Trader on 16-18 October, according to Kpler data. By Louise Hossien Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Bangladesh's BCIC issues sulphur buy tender
Bangladesh's BCIC issues sulphur buy tender
London, 26 October (Argus) — Bangladeshi fertilizer producer Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) has issued a tender to buy 15,000t of crushed lump sulphur. The tender is due to close on 24 November, with the cargo to be shipped to Chattogram within seven weeks of the tender closing. BCIC previously issued a buy tender for the same quantity of sulphur in July, but it is understood that no award was made. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil
Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil
Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been narrowing the gap to senator Flavio Bolsonaro's lead in polls, but Lula still lags his challenger just days before the presidential election runoff set for 25 October. Opinion polls indicate that the contest remains close, with right-wing Bolsonaro holding a narrow advantage. A 21 October average of multiple polls by independent polling tracker Votendi put Bolsonaro at 51.2pc and Lula at 48.8pc, a 2.4 percentage-point gap. The margin of error is of 2.2 percentage points. Bolsonaro finished the first round of votes with 47pc, ahead of Lula's 45.16pc, leaving the two separated by about 2.2mn votes. Lula has aimed at undecided voters to narrow the gap, with more than 33mn Brazilians not voting in the first round. He sought to broaden his appeal since the first round by embracing several proposals aimed at conservative-leaning voters, including tax amnesty, debt renegotiation for microentrepreneurs and a lower age of criminal responsibility. He also proposed free weekend bus travel and earlier payment of the federal social welfare program, ideas that might appeal more to his left-wing base. Labor policy has been one of the clearest dividing lines of the campaign. Lula has championed a recently approved reduction in working hours, while Bolsonaro's allies have argued for greater labor-market flexibility, including wider use of hourly employment contracts. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has focused on the economy. He promises to cut R200bn-250bn ($39.8bn-49.7bn) from the federal budget, which financial markets view favorably. He has also promised to allow individuals to suspend repayments on personal debts for six months and for businesses to hold off for as long as a year. While the election campaigns have featured little debate over energy , investors remain focused on potential implications. A Lula victory would likely reinforce the government's approach to energy transition policies, including support for biofuels and renewable energy investment. Bolsonaro has generally favoured fewer environmental restrictions and could seek to accelerate licensing processes for agriculture, mining and oil. Energy markets are unlikely to face immediate disruptions under either candidate, given Brazil's importance as a major exporter, but differences in environmental policy and infrastructure investment could influence longer-term prospects. Corruption standoff Corruption allegations have dominated the campaign's final stretch. Bolsonaro has focused on the Operation Car Wash anti-corruption probe, which sent Lula to jail in 2018 on money laundering and corruption counts. He was later freed in 2019 after his convictions were annulled by the supreme court. Lula's campaign has accused Bolsonaro of money laundering and corruption scandals during the Covid-19 pandemic — when his father Jair Bolsonaro was president. It also has tried to tie him to Rio de Janeiro's militia — illegal mafia-like vigilante paramilitary groups. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing, saying there is no material evidence of participation in criminal schemes, extortion or the command of paramilitary groups. Lula has further challenged Bolsonaro to disclose his banking and telephone records to prove he is clean, saying he would do the same. Bolsonaro responded by demanding records for people close to the president. Lula obliged. A recent Quaest survey found that 52pc of voters disapproved of Bolsonaro, compared with 47pc for Lula. The same polling shows that 44pc of voters fear a Bolsonaro return to power, against 42pc who fear a Lula re-election. Institutional impact The runoff's result will have lasting consequences for Brazil's institutions, as Bolsonaro promises to revamp the judicial system and the constitution. Changes would include abolishing the right to re-election for executive branch offices and extending presidential and gubernatorial terms to five or six years from the current four. He says he would also promote changes to the supreme court's structure and powers, redefining the relationship between branches of government. Overhauling the judicial system or parts of the constitution would require the backing of large congressional majorities. Brazil also held legislative elections on 4 October, with Bolsonaro's Liberal party securing sweeping victories . It will hold 121 seats in the 513-member lower house and 28 in the 81-member senate. Therefore, Bolsonaro would likely face little resistance to enact changes. The next president will nominate four or five supreme court justices. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Moraes is seen as a Lula ally and emerged as a leading figure in the judiciary, especially for his role in high-profile investigations involving Bolsonaro and his allies. Those included the one that sent Jair Bolsonaro to jail for 27 years for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election following his defeat to Lula. Flavio Balsonaro would also likely attempt to win amnesty for his father in case he wins. Foreign policy Bolsonaro would probably pursue closer relations with US president Donald Trump after tariffs strained ties under Lula. His victory would add Brazil to a regional shift towards the right, following conservative electoral gains elsewhere including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. But it could weaken Brazil's claim to leadership in developing economies globally and diminish its role in international climate negotiations. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Different CBAM regimes hurting industries: Panel
Different CBAM regimes hurting industries: Panel
London, 23 October (Argus) — Fragmented regimes and carbon accounting protocols are raising costs and delaying investment decisions for industries that fall under carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAM), delegates heard at the Carbon Forward conference in London last week. Different approaches for measuring the emissions intensity of production processes under CBAM, greenhouse gas-accounting and other schemes create duplicative calculation and verification burdens, Abu Dhabi-based nitrogen fertilizer producer Fertiglobe's vice-president for sustainability, Hesham Yehia, said at a panel discussion. The prospect of dozens of national border mechanisms could make compliance unmanageable for producers around the world, he said. Methodologies "do not tie up", Yehia said, calling for interoperability among regimes and protocols. Having "one carbon price is actually less important than ideally having one kind of standard", consultancy Dubrink chief CBAM officer Marcel Duits said. Systems will have to harmonise in the long run, otherwise it will be impossible for companies to comply with all the different regimes, Duits said. Projects cannot be financed with confidence when certification rules and CBAM schemes assess the same low-carbon molecule differently, Yehia said. "If there are two regulations treating [emissions] differently in the same market, nobody will invest." You need regulatory clarity before you make a final investment decision on a project, he said. Experts warned that high default values and rising certificate costs may redirect trade away from the EU, erode margins and disadvantage unprepared companies. The aim of the EU's CBAM is to prevent carbon leakage and create a level-playing field between EU and non-EU producers in terms of paying for emissions, while also encouraging non-EU producers to take steps to decarbonise and prevent climate change. But it may have the opposite impact, experts warned. The CBAM is changing sourcing, pricing and market access decisions, while adding cash-flow and carbon-price risk. It is crucial for CBAM revenue to support decarbonisation both inside and outside the EU, Yehia said. Funds should be allocated in proportion to the balance of EU production and imports, particularly in import-dependent sectors such as fertilisers, he said. Revenue from the CBAM could be "allocated to not just EU but also non-EU producers", with exporters incentivised towards further emissions cuts through EU support, Yehia said. If applied, this could turn the anti-CBAM sentiment outside the EU into a more co-operative and supportive approach, with non-EU firms delivering goods into the bloc likely to be keener to collaborate rather than criticise the policy. A form of compensation for developing countries was proposed during the CBAM legislative process, with the European Parliament advocating using additional EU financial support linked to the CBAM to help developing countries decarbonise their industries and adapt to the measure. But this did not make it into the final CBAM regulation. The EU CBAM will prompt governments in the rest of the world to impose their own emissions pricing regimes, to keep funds within their respective countries, panelists said. But such countries often consider the impact of carbon pricing on local industries — particularly in those where only a small fraction of CBAM goods are delivered to the EU — and are often either opting out or setting up less effective regimes that charge much less than the current EU emissions trading system. This is a double burden for industries outside the EU, particularly in developing countries, as they are paying the emissions burden but not receiving any support in return to decarbonise, Yehia said. By Erisa Senerdem Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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