Biofuels Forecasting in a Policy-Driven Market
How policy shifts, RIN supply and credit balances are changing the way US biofuels markets are forecast.
Record U.S. biofuels compliance mandates, EPA small refinery exemptions, and shifting supply chains continue to influence RIN supply dynamics, adding complexity to increasingly sophisticated forecast models. In this episode, Philip Goughary (Business Development Manager, Renewables and Biofuels) speaks with Zander Capozzola (Principal Consultant, Renewable Fuels) about why understanding the RIN bank is now central to pricing, positioning and compliance risk.
The conversation looks at how RIN balances have become more complex in 2026, what “paper blending” means for the market, and why Argus Biofuels Outlook uses live compliance modelling to track policy, production, feedstock and credit signals across a 15-month forecast horizon.
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