The US will impose a 35pc tariff on all imports from Canada effective on 1 August, President Donald Trump said in a 10 July letter to Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. The letter, which Trump posted on social media, noted that Canada previously planned retaliatory tariffs in response to the US' first tariff threats in the spring. He repeated his earliest justification for the tariffs — the illegal smuggling of fentanyl into the US from Canada — and said he would consider "an adjustment" to the tariffs if Canada worked with him to stop that flow.
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US to roll out oil market calming measures
US to roll out oil market calming measures
Washington, 4 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is set to roll out additional measures aimed to calm global energy markets spooked by the US-Israel war on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory attacks on shipping and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. The US will make a "series of announcements" about stabilizing oil and LNG shipments out of the Mideast Gulf, treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Wednesday. Trump on Tuesday already ordered US government finance provider Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to offer political risk insurance and naval convoys for ships transporting energy and other commodities through the Mideast Gulf. DFC did not immediately outline how it will implement Trump's order. The agency's mandate already includes political risk insurance for specific projects and "DFC will help ensure commerce, capital, and energy can operate at capacity during the ongoing conflict", chief executive Ben Black said, inviting shippers and financial institutions to contact the agency directly. "DFC can either provide insurance directly or reinsure an insurer, the latter of which might be the easiest thing to do," advocacy group FDD senior adviser and former Trump White House staff member Rich Goldberg told Argus . Another possible measure could include invoking "the Merchant Marine Act of 1936, which provides the US Maritime Administration with authority to issue war risk insurance and reinsurance in the maritime domain", Goldberg said. Trump also said that the Pentagon would provide naval escorts for the hundreds of ships stuck in the Mideast Gulf. Senior US military commanders in briefings on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning did not address the possible naval escorts and said the US will soon degrade Iran's capacity to launch missiles and drones at its neighbors. Trump's offer of US-backed insurance for the Mideast Gulf shipping sent US benchmark WTI crude futures slightly lower in Tuesday's session. But some traders expressed skepticism about how quickly the plan can be implemented and whether it would help reopen shipping lanes in the world's largest oil-producing region. The offer would effectively be "like painting a massive target on your ship", one trader told Argus , because "Iran would be directly forcing US taxpayers to foot the war bill". The US plan also would put it in an awkward position of having to underwrite energy shipments out of the region to China and other destinations in Asia. The measures outlined by the Trump administration so far focused on enabling energy carrying vessels to transit the strait of Hormuz. Ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical shipping lane for oil, LNG and other commodities — has almost ground to a halt since US and Israeli forces struck Iran on 28 February. Another vessel was targeted in the Mideast Gulf on Wednesday, fresh reports from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicate, adding to the growing list of incidents in the region. Three tankers commercially operated by Greek shipowner Dynacom Tankers Management passed through the strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to a shipbroker. Ship insurers require Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRPs) for vessels passing through designated risky areas to maintain coverage. Last week, ahead of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, AWRP in the Mideast Gulf stood at 0.15–0.2pc of a vessel's hull and machinery value, according to insurance brokers. But regional rates have now surged, to around 1pc, brokers say, which is equivalent to around $1.34mn for a 2mn bl VLCC. The US strategy does not address the war damage to oil and natural gas production or processing facilities across the Mideast Gulf. State-owned QatarEnergy on Wednesday declared force majeure following the halt of production of LNG and associated products to its "affected" buyers. The halt at Ras Laffan is a safety measure to prevent onshore LNG storage from overfilling, Taiwan's ministry of economic affairs said. State-controlled Saudi Aramco's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery was targeted by a drone for a second time in three days on Wednesday, according to the defense ministry. By Haik Gugarats and Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf crude premiums near 6-year high on Iran war
US Gulf crude premiums near 6-year high on Iran war
Houston, 4 March (Argus) — US Gulf medium sour and heavy sweet grades surged Tuesday to their highest premiums over the Cushing, Oklahoma, benchmark since April 2020, the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, supported by the near-halt of Middle Eastern exports because of the war in Iran. Medium sour and heavy sweet crudes have been especially supported by the effective suspension of crude and product exports through the strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli attacks on Iran that began on 28 February, sparking retaliatory strikes from Iran on targets in the region. Much of the disrupted crude is of similar quality to US Gulf grades and the region is also a major exporter of middle distillates, boosting prices for both significantly. Prompt-month April medium sour Mars traded between $3.75-$5/bl over Domestic Sweet (DSW), while medium sour Southern Green Canyon (SGC) reached a $3/bl premium on Tuesday . Distillate-rich Heavy Louisiana Sweet (HLS) rose as high as a $5.25/bl premium. Volume-weighted averages jumped by roughly $1.15-$2.15/bl from the prior session. These gains came alongside a sharp rise in the Nymex WTI price for DSW, which settled at at $74.56/bl Tuesday, about $7.50/bl higher than on 27 February, the last trading day before the Israeli-US attacks on Iran. Outright assessments for the three grades were between $77-80/bl. Their premiums have not been higher since April 2020 when differentials rose to partially offset the benchmark price collapse when storage capacity rapidly filled in the wake of Covid-19 related lockdowns and increased Saudi Arabian output. ME source of 24pc US crude imports Middle Eastern crudes accounted for about 24pc of all US waterborne crude imports from November 2025-February 2026, according to analytics platform Vortexa, or 587,000 b/d. Of the 277,000 b/d delivered to the US Gulf coast in that time, about 95pc was medium sour. Of the medium sours, US Gulf coast buyers imported roughly 189,000 b/d of Arab Light and 24,000 b/d of Arab Medium from Saudi Arabia and 51,000 b/d of Iraqi Kirkuk. Kirkuk imports resumed in November after the reopening of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline. The remaining Middle Eastern crude volumes to the US Gulf coast originated in those two nations or Kuwait. Total imports of Middle Eastern crude were up by 65pc from the same period a year earlier, alongside the unwinding of Opec+ production cuts and lower relative prices. National oil companies for Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, sell crude to the US at a differential to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI). ASCI is a volume-weighted average of US Gulf deepwater sour crude deals for Mars, Poseidon and SGC. Rising offshore production had been weighing on US Gulf sours and the ASCI price in recent months, and official selling price differentials have also moved lower, also making US imports from the three countries more economical than in the past. Additionally, global middle distillate prices have rallied this week, including at the US Gulf coast. US Gulf coast jet fuel prices reached a 29-month high on Tuesday and diesel prices made strong gains. In contrast to the medium sours and HLS, light sweets WTI Houston and Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) premiums, although still high, have made smaller gains and are at their highest levels since only last year. US Gulf refiners import little light crude given robust domestic production. But Asia-Pacific refiners that depend on Abu Dhabi's light sour Murban are looking more to WTI as an alternative, given Murban's surging prices and the difficulty of getting vessel insurance on cargoes in the Mideast Gulf region. Indonesia is considering importing more non-Middle Eastern crude, including from the US, for supply security. But most of its imports from the region are Saudi Arabian medium sours, which could lend further support to the similar US grades. By Amanda Smith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sulphur chokepoint threatens battery metals
Sulphur chokepoint threatens battery metals
London, 4 March (Argus) — The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to squeeze the supply of sulphur through the strait of Hormuz, with potential long-lasting second-order effects on key battery metals production. The most immediate industrial vulnerability lies in sulphur produced in Mideast Gulf countries — and by extension sulphuric acid — a critical input for copper and cobalt leaching in the central African copperbelt, nickel leaching in Indonesia and lithium extraction and refining globally. Roughly half of global seaborne sulphur trade transits the strait of Hormuz. With Middle Eastern refinery operations disrupted and shipping largely halted, global sulphur availability has tightened sharply. Africa is particularly exposed. Nearly all sulphur imported by southern African buyers last year originated in the Middle East. Argus assessed spot sulphur prices at the key hub of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, at $615-630/t fca on 3 March, an increase of just $20/t since 27 February, as stocks in the port are ample. But the structural vulnerability is clear. Delivered trucking costs from Dar es Salaam to Kolwezi in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are about $280/t. That implies delivered sulphur prices approaching $900/t dap Kolwezi this week. At typical 3:1 conversion ratios, that suggests sulphuric acid costs nearing $300/t, much higher than other regional benchmarks. Sulphur fob Middle East prices were assessed at $494-496/t. Both prices had experienced a slight dip ahead of the conflict but have jumped in the initial days of the war. Copperbelt heavily impacted The central African copperbelt imports roughly 2mn t/yr of sulphur, producing around 6mn t/yr of sulphuric acid for oxide copper leaching. An additional 2.5mn t/yr of acid is generated by regional copper smelters processing concentrates. Higher acid prices directly raise copper production costs in one of the world's fastest-growing supply regions. The same belt is also the centre of global cobalt production. The DRC accounts for roughly 70pc of global mined cobalt supply. Major producers include Glencore, whose Mutanda and Kamoto operations produced around 40,000t of cobalt in 2024, and China Molybdenum (CMOC), whose Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines together produced more than 55,000t of cobalt last year. But the DRC has room to manoeuvre in the cobalt markets, as it has imposed an export quota on producers since late last year. There is probably a significant production overhang in the country itself, so a loosening of the policy could be used to shore up market supply in the event of a tight squeeze. The mechanism that shuts down global trade is not necessarily naval blockades but the withdrawal of war risk insurance, Robert Friedland, the founder of Ivanhoe Mines, noted this week. Seven of the 12 members of the International Group of P&I Clubs have issued cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Mideast Gulf, extending beyond the strait of Hormuz itself to Iranian waters and the Gulf of Oman. Nickel mines and lithium refineries exposed Sulphuric acid also plays a critical role in the wider battery metals supply chain. It is a key reagent in pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations used to produce nickel from laterite ores in Indonesia, now the world's dominant source of battery-grade nickel, producing more than 50pc of global supply. Several large Indonesian HPAL projects consume millions of tonnes of sulphur annually to generate acid for leaching operations. Indonesian nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) producers have ceased offering long-term contractual material to assess the potential impact of sulphur supply disruptions. Fuel impacts in Indonesia could also be acute. Indonesia's crude supply from the Middle East passes through Hormuz and makes up around a fifth of national demand, energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on 3 March. Sulphuric acid is also widely used in lithium extraction and processing. Hard-rock spodumene concentrate is typically converted into lithium chemicals using sulphuric acid roasting, while several emerging direct lithium extraction and brine conversion routes also depend on large volumes of sulphuric acid. A sustained rise in sulphur prices therefore risks feeding directly into global battery metal production costs. Again, Africa is most exposed, but a recent lithium concentrate export ban in Zimbabwe may actually relieve the pressure on other mines in the region. Australia, the world's largest lithium spodumene producer, receives most of its sulphur from Canada, so should remain far more insulated. That said, the second-largest supplier is Qatar, albeit by some distance. General inflationary pressures brought on by an extended crisis can and will affect the Chinese refining industry, which was already struggling with margin pressure from growing spodumene prices and could emerge as the weak link in the lithium supply chain. Lithium refining is an energy and reagent-intensive process. Elevated LNG and power costs in Asia, combined with rising sulphur and sulphuric acid prices used in the conversion of spodumene into lithium chemicals, could significantly increase operating costs for converters. At the same time, demand uncertainty or weaker downstream battery markets could limit refiners' ability to pass those costs on. China accounts for roughly 80pc of global lithium chemical refining capacity, meaning that any sustained pressure on Chinese converters would have disproportionate consequences for global lithium supply. By Thomas Kavanagh & Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU says no gas or oil supply concerns from Iran war
EU says no gas or oil supply concerns from Iran war
London, 4 March (Argus) — There are no oil or gas supply concerns yet in the EU as a result of the spreading war in the Mideast Gulf, the European Commission said today. The de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz, the world's most important waterway for oil exports at the mouth of the Mideast Gulf, is likely to cause shortfalls of crude, LNG and other commodities. But the commission said its gas and oil co-ordination groups met today and concluded there are no "immediate security of supply risks". No emergency oil stocks have been released and gas storage levels are stable, it said. Price moves in energy markets since the start of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran on 28 February have been suggesting some concern about future supply shortfalls, with front-month Ice Brent crude up by more than $10/bl since the start of the week and the front-month contract at the Dutch TTF gas hub up by more than 50pc at one point this week. Notably, European jet fuel values tripled in early swaps trading earlier today, making historic gains, having already been at record highs at the market close yesterday, 3 March. Europe's gas prices are rising because the shutting-in of Qatari LNG tightens supply globally . The level of future shortfalls are entirely dependent on how long the strait remains out of bounds for shipping. The US has suggested some remedies , but it is unclear how and when these will be put into action. The commission said today it will reassess the situation "in case of a prolonged closure" of the strait of Hormuz, but it did not say how it defines 'prolonged'. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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