The US will impose a 35pc tariff on all imports from Canada effective on 1 August, President Donald Trump said in a 10 July letter to Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. The letter, which Trump posted on social media, noted that Canada previously planned retaliatory tariffs in response to the US' first tariff threats in the spring. He repeated his earliest justification for the tariffs — the illegal smuggling of fentanyl into the US from Canada — and said he would consider "an adjustment" to the tariffs if Canada worked with him to stop that flow.
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Latam producers take strait shot at investment
Latam producers take strait shot at investment
Houston, 11 May (Argus) — Latin America's fastest growing crude producers — Brazil, Guyana and Argentina — gushed at last week's Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, about how their upstream opportunities are even more attractive because of the war in the Middle East. Brazilian crude exports "do not go through a strait", and offer an alternative to reliance on producers around a troubled Mideast Gulf, as Brazilian oil regulator ANP's director-general, Artur Watt, said. The three countries together already produce about 6mn b/d of crude, including a record 4.2mn b/d from Brazil in March, more than 900,000 b/d from Guyana and almost 900,000 b/d from Argentina. The 6mn b/d is six times Venezuela's production, and far above Mexico's 1.64mn b/d. But the three fastest-growing non-Opec producers want more investment to ensure the streak continues. Brazil needs to replace reserves to face a possible decline after 2030, Argentina has still not fully tapped its onshore Vaca Muerta formation and Guyana is seeking more investors beyond the ExxonMobil-led consortium that is its sole producer. But upstream investment is tight globally, with two-thirds of energy investment this year going to renewable energy, the IEA has forecast. Guyana's president, Irfaan Ali, called last week for the investment gap between renewable and fossil energies to be closed, to ensure enough fossil fuels can be produced to provide base-load energy supply. Oil service provider Baker Hughes expects a low single-digit fall in upstream investment globally this year. It called for more investment , particularly in Latin America as well as the US and other deepwater regions. But even with big, beautiful blocks, the region will have to fight for its share of a shrinking pie to not miss this shot at expansion, government and company officials acknowledged. In Brazil, even seismic data are "beautiful", as a government promoter put it while touting the offshore Mogno block — in the prodigious pre-salt and which Brazil hopes to auction this year — to a room of potential investors. Not as big but almost as beautiful as Buzios, one of the world's largest deepwater fields, ANP superintendent Marina Abelha said at a roadshow of 2026 offerings. But the country will need to work on the "predictability, stability and pace" of its oil investment environment to remain competitive as global capital grows increasingly selective, its leading private-sector producer Shell's vice-president of pre-salt operations, Pablo Tejera Cuesta, said. While Brazil is highly attractive for capital, "it doesn't necessarily mean it is here to stay unless we fight for it", he said. "It is not a question of demand, but where does the capital flow and why." Brazil is working on ways to spruce up its offers, state officials said, including increasing an offer of barrels for export this year, building a digital bidding platform for acreage auctions and constantly reviewing new areas to offer. Scale and pace Argentina is banking on its large-investment promotion scheme, Rigi, to pull in more upstream spending. The country needs more partners given the scale of infrastructure required, state-owned YPF's chief executive, Horacio Marin, said. "We need all the companies to build a profitable ecosystem," he added. Guyana is also reviewing investment and related laws, even after passing its petroleum investment framework law in 2023, Bobby Gossai, a senior adviser to the natural resources ministry, said. It also recently signed an agreement to start 6-12 months' work on 3D seismic offshore, to process data for future bidding rounds. It wants these to be "a little more business-friendly and investment-friendly", he said, even if not as big as Stabroek, Guyana's only producing block. "You are pushing at an open door," Gossai said. "Guyana is open for business." By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran says its response to US 'reasonable, generous'
Iran says its response to US 'reasonable, generous'
Dubai, 11 May (Argus) — Iran's foreign ministry said on Monday that Tehran's response to the latest US proposal to end the war was "reasonable" and "generous," pushing back against US president Donald Trump's characterisation of it as "totally unacceptable." "Is our proposal for safe passage through the strait of Hormuz excessive? Is an important issue like re-establishing security and peace in the region, an irresponsible demand?" foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei asked, rhetorically. "All we proposed were reasonable and responsible demands, and generous proposals, not only for Iran's national interests, but also for the good, stability and security of the region and the world," he said. Trump overnight labelled the Iranian position as "totally unacceptable," dashing hopes of an imminent conclusion to the conflict. Crude futures rose sharply in early trading today, with the front-month July Ice Brent contract hitting an intraday peak of $105.99/bl before coming off to trade just below $104/bl. Trump last week said a peace deal under discussion with Iran would reopen the strait of Hormuz to navigation and lift the US blockade on Iranian trade. Baghaei today said the US' conditions continue to be "one-sided… and unreasonable". The US has been highlighting the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, and a shuttering of Iran's nuclear capabilities, as its top conditions to bring the war to an end. Washington is looking for Iran to put an end to its nuclear enrichment activities, and to hand over its stocks of around 400kg of highly-enriched uranium. But Iran's priorities to end the war lie elsewhere, which has been complicating the diplomatic track. "At this stage, our focus is on what is urgent," Baghaei said. "And what is urgent is ending the war in all its forms, including Lebanon and ensuring the safety and security of navigation through the [Mideast] Gulf and the strait of Hormuz… which includes stopping the illegal actions of the US against commercial ships." "What decisions we make on the nuclear issue, on Iran's [highly enriched] materials and on issues related to enrichment activities is something we will discuss when the time is right," Baghaei said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UAE's Opec exit raises questions as output plummets
UAE's Opec exit raises questions as output plummets
London, 11 May (Argus) — The UAE's departure from Opec has reinforced Saudi Arabia's already dominant leadership of the group, but it also presents an opportunity for other members, including smaller ones, to gain greater influence over policy decisions. The exit of the UAE from Opec and the wider Opec+ has shaken the alliance to the core and raised serious questions over the group's cohesion. It could even prompt others to reassess their membership in the group. But life outside Opec would be challenging. Most Opec members have historically relied on larger producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to lead policy given its superior market knowledge and intelligence, in the expectation that its decisions will ultimately benefit all. The UAE was perhaps unique among the group in its ability to go it alone. Unlike most other members, it has a proven ability to rapidly deploy new production capacity. And no other member, apart from Saudi Arabia, has the sort of deep oil market knowledge that would allow it to successfully navigate global oil markets. Still, the importance of ensuring group cohesion could lend a greater voice to other members on policy decisions and potentially see Saudi Arabia adopt a more accommodating stance. After all, even the exit of a small African producer would present poor optics, particularly if it happens soon after the UAE's departure. The chief candidates for a greater role in Opec, and by extension Opec+, are the group's other Mideast Gulf producers Iraq and Kuwait. Iraq remains Opec's second largest member and has ambitious plans to increase its production capacity from around 4.5mn b/d to 6mn b/d. While it has the reserves, the country has struggled to advance long-standing growth projects, including export capacity expansions, largely due to political instability. It is also paying the price of not building sufficient export infrastructure that would allow it to meaningfully bypass the strait of Hormuz. If Iraq is to play a more influential role within Opec, it may also have to assert greater control over production in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which has long undermined its credibility in the group. Kuwait is also a major producer and one of the few members with significant spare production capacity. Before the effective closure of the strait, Kuwait was producing around 2.6mn b/d compared to its stated production capacity of about 3mn b/d. But while it has ambitious plans to boost capacity to 4mn b/d, recent additions have merely managed to counter natural decline. Its total reliance on the strait of Hormuz for its oil exports has also meant it has been one of the hardest hit members due to the closure of the waterway. Other members such as Algeria may also clamour for a greater role. While its production capacity is smaller, the country its politically stable and is located outside the increasingly precarious Mideast Gulf region. It also highly values its membership for the international recognition this brings — something that is even more important to smaller African members. The UAE's exit could even prompt Opec to speed up efforts to sign up new members. Opec+ crude output plummeted by 1.59mn b/d in April, Argus estimates. The drop left group production about 11mn b/d below pre-war levels and was mainly driven by further reductions in the Mideast Gulf as members had to shut in production due to the war and effective closure of the strait of Hormuz — their main export outlet (see table). Russia's output is also under pressure from Ukrainian attacks on its oil facilities. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Target† ± target Opec 9 13.40 14.71 23.49 -10.09 Non-Opec 9 12.59 12.91 13.45 -0.86 Opec 18 25.99 27.62 36.94 -10.95 Total Opec+ 31.34 32.93 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Apr Mar Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 6.32 7.00 10.17 -3.85 Iraq 1.40 1.70 4.30 -2.90 Kuwait 0.56 1.17 2.60 -2.04 UAE 2.02 1.90 3.43 -1.41 Algeria 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.02 Nigeria 1.57 1.45 1.50 0.07 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.30 0.26 0.28 0.02 Gabon 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.01 Equatorial Guinea 0.04 0.04 0.07 -0.03 Opec 9 13.40 14.71 23.49 -10.09 Iran 2.95 3.08 na na Libya 1.35 1.23 na na Venezuela 1.05 1.00 na na Total Opec 12^ 18.75 20.02 na na †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Note: UAE exit is effective from 1 May Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Target† ± target Russia 9.00 9.20 9.64 -0.64 Oman 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.01 Azerbaijan 0.46 0.46 0.55 -0.09 Kazakhstan 1.72 1.80 1.58 0.14 Malaysia 0.35 0.35 0.40 -0.05 Bahrain 0.02 0.06 0.20 -0.18 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 Sudan 0.01 0.01 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.00 Total non-Opec 12.59 12.91 13.45 -0.86 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran war counter-proposal 'totally unacceptable': Trump
Iran war counter-proposal 'totally unacceptable': Trump
Singapore, 11 May (Argus) — US president Donald Trump has deemed Iran's response to a plan to end the war "totally unacceptable", indicating there is no end in sight to the conflict yet. "I have just read the response from Iran's so-called 'Representatives'," Trump said in a social media post. "I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" he said. Crude futures rose by about 4pc in Asian trading today. The front-month July Ice Brent contract rose to $105.32/bl at around 11:00 Singapore time (03:00 GMT), up by 3.9pc from the close on 8 May. US benchmark WTI rose even more sharply. The front-month June contract was at $99.68/bl, a gain of 4.5pc from 8 May. Trump on 6 May claimed that a peace deal that was under discussion with Iran would reopen the strait of Hormuz to navigation and lift the US blockade on Iranian trade. Iran's foreign ministry said it was still reviewing a US proposal, state news agency Isna said on the same day. But the US proposal "contains some unacceptable clauses", according to Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran's counter-proposal has not been published, but the text emphasises the need to immediately end the war, lift US sanctions related to Iran's oil sales, end the maritime blockade of Iran, and ensure Iranian management of the strait of Hormuz if the US fulfils certain commitments, according to an informed source cited by Tasnim. "[The war] is not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised interview on CBS on 10 May. "There's still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled," he said. Previous statements from Washington and Tehran have outlined a possible agreement that would curb Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief for Tehran. But both sides have drawn red lines, with the US insisting on eliminating Iran's theoretical capacity to produce nuclear weapons, and Tehran emphasising continued control over the strait Hormuz. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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