Argus recently launched a calculated assessment for reformulated gasoline in Group Three. This move comes following recent changes that were made in gasoline specifications for the Denver, Colorado, area in 2024.
Summertime conventional gasoline sales in Denver, Colorado ended on 7 November 2023 when the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mandated reformulated gasoline for the metropolitan area during the summer season. The shift in specifications was first announced by the EPA ruling in November 2022 when it found the region was not meeting federal ozone standards. Reformulated gasoline burns cleaner than its conventional counterpart but is also a more expensive fuel to produce.
For the winter months, Denver gasoline prices will likely change little from years past. The Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) levels for reformulated gasoline will likely closely mimic those seen in Group Three’s conventional gasoline market for the southern portion of the midcontinent.
But come summer – which is defined as 1 June through 15 September – Denver area retailers will be required to sell 7.4 RVP reformulated gasoline, as opposed to a prior requirement of 7.8 RVP conventional fuel. This is expected to widen Denver's premium to conventional prices in nearby regions.
Denver reformulated gasoline's premium to sub-octane gasoline prices in adjacent states such as Oklahoma and Kansas should be similar to spreads between Gulf coast CBOB and Gulf coast RBOB. Denver's reformulated gasoline supply will come from a combination of shipments from the midcontinent and Gulf coast markets, as well as from Suncor's 103,000 b/d refinery in nearby Commerce City, Colorado.
Group Three RBOB Methodology
Prices for Regular RBOB are published year-round for 10,000 bl on a fob Tulsa, Oklahoma basis.
Prices are calculated by applying the spread between the prompt Argus Regular Texas Destination RBOB and Regular Colonial CBOB from the US Gulf coast markets to the respective prompt Magellan suboctane V grade price. The use of the spread value mitigates the end-of-summer shift in Colonial RVP specifications.
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Author: Paul Dahlgren, Editor, Refined Products Americas – Gasoline Markets
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Viewpoint: California asphalt supply in limbo
Houston, 2 January (Argus) — The potential closure of US independent Valero's 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California, this spring is expected to boost asphalt trade flows and prices as buyers seek supply from farther afield. Valero in April 2025 said it planned to close or repurpose Benecia by April 2026. The plant produces roughly 400,000 short tons/yr of asphalt, according to market participants, accounting for about 35pc of total asphalt production capacity in the state. Benecia is the only local source of supply for the northern California market. The next closest producer is near Bakersfield in central California, about 280 miles from the San Francisco market. Bay Area retail asphalt prices are expected to rise as buyers shift to delivered rail volumes from the Rocky Mountains or Canada to make up for the shortage. Other North American rail markets could also see upward price pressure, with more volume directed to the US west coast. Bay Area rack prices averaged roughly a $200/st premium to rail values in the Rockies during 2025 and this week have been in the $470-$510/st range. A supply disruption could push prices rapidly higher. The last major disruption out west was in March 2022, when a fire damaged the 58,000 b/d Billings, Montana, refinery, which at the time was owned by ExxonMobil. Wholesale rail values in the Rockies rose to a 14-year high of $612.50/st in July 2022, a 39pc increase from March of that year. Asphalt production capacity in California totals 25,950 b/d or about 4,600 st/d , 15pc below 2020 levels and nearly 50pc below 2015 levels, according to US Energy Information Administration data. US west coast receipts of Rockies asphalt rail shipments totaled about 1.97mn bl or 351,785st through September 2025, 33pc above flows during the same period in 2015. Canadian rail volumes destined for the US west coast have also been on the rise recently. About 61,000 bl or 10,892st of Canadian asphalt landed on the US west coast in September, 9pc above September 2022 flows and the highest level for the month since 2018. Asphalt goes west The pending loss of production has spurred several companies to enter the wholesale asphalt market to fill the supply gap. Construction firm Teichert is developing a new terminal in West Sacramento, California, after purchasing a former fertilizer facility with rail and waterborne access. The facility has access to a deepwater shipping channel, and market participants have noted the possibility of waterborne imports if the economics are favorable. The most recent US west coast waterborne import was in August 2024 when a ship carrying Venezuelan asphalt landed in Portland, Oregon, according to Kpler data. Some market participants said California has never received a waterborne asphalt import. Asphalt terminal operator Ergon and San Joaquin Refining in August announced they had started discussions for a potential strategic partnership, and other suppliers have been heard looking at building tanks in or near California to supply the market. Valero also operates an asphalt terminal with rail access, a truck rack and storage capacity of about 300,000 bl in Pittsburg, California, and some market participants have noted the potential expansion of the site could boost rail flows into the terminal as well. Further south, Marathon Petroleum plans to produce asphalt and construct a truck-loading rack at its 365,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in Carson, California, according to a project overview released by the company. An increase in asphalt production would likely not be seen immediately, however. Market participants expect Marathon's project to take roughly two years to complete because of the lack of existing asphalt infrastructure at the refinery and California's strict regulatory environment, and that additional source of supply would still be nearly 400 miles from San Francisco. By Cobin Eggers Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Base oils oversupply tigthens US margins
Viewpoint: Base oils oversupply tigthens US margins
Houston, 2 January (Argus) — A global structural oversupply of base oils and finished lubricants weakened US margins throughout 2025, with downward pressure expected to continue into 2026. Global supplies of Group II base oils increased in 2025 as a result of new output from a Singapore refinery, while production from India is also expected to increase in 2026. The increased production is leading to more competition on the export market globally and creating more surplus among US refiners for the domestic market. Base oil demand also weakened in 2025, particularly for Group II grades, due to several factors. More consumers are using passenger car motor oils derived from Group III base oils given its increased performance, which resulted in weaker demand for Group II N100. Demand for mid-viscosity grades also fell due to reduced trucking and agricultural activities, while demand for high-viscosity grades waned on reduced industrial and manufacturing activity. The increase in supply and slowdown in demand have weakened base oil premiums to competing fuels, especially in the fourth quarter. The spread between the Argus US domestic spot N100 and Argus four-week average US Gulf coast diesel narrowed to an average 88¢/USG in 2025 through mid-December, down from 98¢/USG in 2024. Base oil premiums to diesel typically dictate how much base oil is produced as diesel, gasoline and other products produced at fluid catalytic crackers compete with base oil for feedstock vacuum gas oil (VGO). Base oil premiums over diesel trended lower in the fourth quarter, hitting a 20-month low in late November at 48¢/USG before rebounding to 61¢/USG in mid-December. Base oil producers are closely watching the spread to see if they can reduce base oil output in parts of 2026. The overall buildup of global Group II supplies and weaker lubricant demand also pushed US refiners to lower their export prices. The Argus US Group II N100 export price averaged $2.54/USG in 2025 through mid-December, down from $2.77/USG in 2024, further eroding overall base oil margins. This increased surplus supply within the US market also led to increased discounting, particularly for term volumes to domestic customers. This is expected to continue into 2026, with market participants saying US refiners are offering steeper discounts on 2026 contracts compared with 2025 deals. Some of the increased Group II surplus is expected to be offset by increased Group III production in the US. Some of that production will come from existing Group II streams and create a yield loss on Group II output, particularly for low- and mid-viscosity grades. Base oil margins relative to feedstock VGO were more attractive on a domestic basis, but fell when considering base oils sales into the export market. The spread between the Argus US domestic spot N100 and Argus four-week average low-sulphur VGO averaged $1.22/USG in 2025 through mid-December, in line with previous year values. Argus US export spot N100 margins in 2025 fell to 32¢/USG, down from 39¢/USG in 2024. By John Dietrich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US policy shift elevates domestic feedstocks
Viewpoint: US policy shift elevates domestic feedstocks
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Viewpoint: US uses delays against 'green' policies
Viewpoint: US uses delays against 'green' policies
Washington, 2 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has increasingly used regulatory delays to impede the growth of renewable energy projects, while giving fossil fuel companies years of additional time to comply with existing regulations. The delay tactics have proven to be a potent tool for the administration assault on what Trump calls the "Green New Scam", in some cases without having to complete time-consuming rulemakings that take months to finalize. And even when delays have failed to hold up in court, such as a judge's ruling in September lifting a "stop work" order against a $4bn offshore wind project called Revolution Wind, the administration has been able to effectively revive the order months later by citing "classified" national security concerns. Trump began freezing regulations issued under former president Joe Biden hours into his second term on 20 January 2025, and he has ramped up delays in recent months. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in December delayed methane restrictions for oil and gas producers by 18 months and gave coal-fired power plants an extra five years to meet new wastewater standards. The US Interior Department recently issued guidance and directives providing one-year compliance delays for flaring rules and increased minimum bonds to cover decommissioning costs. The Interior Department throughout 2025 repeatedly targeted offshore wind projects that were under construction with "stop work" orders, some of which were later reversed by courts or rescinded in response to concessions related to pipelines . US interior secretary Doug Burgum subsequently issued an across-the-board pause on all five major offshore wind projects last week, citing national security. And in July, Burgum began requiring his personal approval for 69 different categories of reviews for wind and solar, with delays trickling down even for projects located on private land. "We now really have a question about whether American companies can go to a private piece of property and build something," American Clean Power Association chief executive Jason Grumet said in October. The delay tactics have echoes of a strategy deployed under former president Joe Biden, who imposed a year-long "pause" on issuing new LNG export licenses and repeatedly held up federal oil and gas lease sales. Oil and gas officials say they want permitting to be more durable for all types of energy resources but noted a lack of outcry from the renewable energy sector in the four years when Biden was delaying fossil fuel projects. "I didn't see a lot of clean energy lobbyists out there saying that, you know, we should get the Keystone XL pipeline built, or the Constitution pipeline built, or the Mountain Valley pipeline built," American Petroleum Institute chief executive Mike Sommers said on a podcast hosted by POLITICO in September. Democrats are hoping to extract a political price against Trump for delaying renewable energy. They say the administration's blockade against many wind and solar projects are partly to blame for rising electrical bills. Last week, Senate Democrats threatened to abandon bipartisan negotiations on permitting legislation in retaliation for Burgum's directive blocking construction on offshore wind development. "The illegal attacks on fully permitted renewable energy projects must be reversed if there is to be any chance that permitting talks resume," US senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) and Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) said on 22 December. The Trump administration plans to continue delays in coming months. EPA plans to propose in "early 2026" a two-year delay of Biden-era air pollution restrictions for cars and trucks sold starting in model year 2027, EPA's top air official Aaron Szabo wrote in an opinion piece published on 19 December in The Hill. The Biden-era vehicle rule was "infeasible" and "unrealistic", Szabo said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.


