Argus Group Three RBOB
Argus recently launched a calculated assessment for reformulated gasoline in Group Three. This move comes following recent changes that were made in gasoline specifications for the Denver, Colorado, area in 2024.
Summertime conventional gasoline sales in Denver, Colorado ended on 7 November 2023 when the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mandated reformulated gasoline for the metropolitan area during the summer season. The shift in specifications was first announced by the EPA ruling in November 2022 when it found the region was not meeting federal ozone standards. Reformulated gasoline burns cleaner than its conventional counterpart but is also a more expensive fuel to produce.
For the winter months, Denver gasoline prices will likely change little from years past. The Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) levels for reformulated gasoline will likely closely mimic those seen in Group Three’s conventional gasoline market for the southern portion of the midcontinent.
But come summer – which is defined as 1 June through 15 September – Denver area retailers will be required to sell 7.4 RVP reformulated gasoline, as opposed to a prior requirement of 7.8 RVP conventional fuel. This is expected to widen Denver's premium to conventional prices in nearby regions.
Denver reformulated gasoline's premium to sub-octane gasoline prices in adjacent states such as Oklahoma and Kansas should be similar to spreads between Gulf coast CBOB and Gulf coast RBOB. Denver's reformulated gasoline supply will come from a combination of shipments from the midcontinent and Gulf coast markets, as well as from Suncor's 103,000 b/d refinery in nearby Commerce City, Colorado.
Group Three RBOB Methodology
Prices for Regular RBOB are published year-round for 10,000 bl on a fob Tulsa, Oklahoma basis.
Prices are calculated by applying the spread between the prompt Argus Regular Texas Destination RBOB and Regular Colonial CBOB from the US Gulf coast markets to the respective prompt Magellan suboctane V grade price. The use of the spread value mitigates the end-of-summer shift in Colonial RVP specifications.
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Author: Paul Dahlgren, Editor, Refined Products Americas – Gasoline Markets
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RLG production forecasts fraught with uncertainty
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