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Overview

Canadian crude producers for decades sold more than 90pc of their export supplies to US buyers. This resulted in logistical bottlenecks in crude pipelines to the US, and left Canadian market participants unable to take advantage of higher prices in Asian markets.

State-owned pipeline operator Trans Mountain began operations on its 540,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline from Edmonton to Vancouver’s Westridge docks in May 2024. It is able to send out 34 Aframax cargoes/month of Canadian crude, almost all of which go to Asia-Pacific or the US west coast . The pipeline has removed bottlenecks on lines to the US Gulf coast and resulted in a narrowing of the price discount of western Canadian heavy crude to the calendar month average of Nymex WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma.

Argus publishes daily price assessments for Canada’s Cold Lake crude, which has a low total acid number (TAN), and for Canadian high-TAN crude, shipped through TMX and sold on a fob basis at Westridge docks. Argus also publishes daily price assessments for high-TAN TMX crude on a delivered basis at the Chinese coast. These prices are used widely by industry in negotiating physical cargo trades, for internal accounting and for strategic purposes.

Argus provides detailed market analysis and explanations of the factors that affect price changes each day, and our suite of crude market services offers proprietary daily freight assessments for routes to Asia-Pacific and the US west coast, forward curve prices, weekly logistics updates across North America, and commentary on global crude market trade flows and trends.

Argus has been a trusted source for crude market pricing and market analysis globally for decades, and all of the US Gulf coast crude market derivatives contracts with significant liquidity are settled on Argus spot physical price assessments. We are also a leader in covering daily prices in delivered crude markets at the Chinese coast. Our methodologies are known for their transparency and relevance, supported by the expertise of our market teams. Our WCS Houston price is precisely hedgeable using financial contracts settling on the Argus physical WCS Houston price, and used together these assessments give a clear idea of available arbitrages on different routes from western Canada to the US Gulf coast, US west coast and Asia-Pacific.

Argus has covered domestic Canadian crude markets from our Calgary office since 2010. Argus’ Calgary office also has full-time reporters covering LPG, natural gas, biofuels and environmental markets, as well as sales staff and a Canada country manager.

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News
17/09/26

US considers loaning more crude from SPR

US considers loaning more crude from SPR

Washington, 17 September (Argus) — A recent increase in crude prices has made it a "very real possibility" that the US Department of Energy (DOE) will offer an additional round of crude loans under a still ongoing 172mn bl drawdown from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), US energy secretary Chris Wright said. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has caused front month WTI crude prices to jump to about $101/bl, which is about 25pc more than futures prices for delivery six months from now. The steep backwardation in the futures market, if it continues, has made it a "very real possibility" that DOE will resume offering oil under the existing crude loan program, Wright said. "The market right now is saying, 'Hey, maybe we need that oil.' So quite possibly we will respond to that," Wright told reporters on Thursday. DOE has already loaned more than 130mn bl of crude or more than 75pc of the drawdown that President Donald Trump authorized in March, and another 3mn bl is scheduled to be released over the next few weeks. But the remaining crude of the authorization — about 38.5mn bl — has yet to be obligated. DOE got high interest in the program this spring, as traders took advantage of about a $30/bl premium in the front month crude contract over futures prices a year later. That profit was more than enough to cover a requirement to return more crude to the SPR than borrowed, which so far is putting about 1.25 bl into the SPR for each 1 bl borrowed. But by June, when DOE offered to loan out the remaining 40mn bl out of the 172mn bl authorization, the profitability of the trade had collapsed , and only 500,000 bl was contracted. "We had stopped selling because the prices were flat," Wright said. "The market today is pulling for it. If that remains, then it's very possible we will finish the allocation of oil we originally agreed to trade." The ongoing drawdown has pushed crude inventories in the SPR to a 44-year low of 285mn bl. Wright has previously said he expects crude to start returning to the SPR by early next year, but the reserve will remain partially depleted even after that refill process finishes in 2029. The US Congress has only provided $171mn to buy crude to refill the SPR, and Wright said he was looking at other options to refill the SPR. "We have a couple of other very creative ideas that I've hinted at for a while — you'll hear more about them later — where we're going to we're going to put quite a few more barrels into the SPR at no cost to the US taxpayers," Wright said at an event held by The Daily Caller . By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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News

US Fed lifts rate for 1st time since 2023: Update

16/09/26
News
16/09/26

US Fed lifts rate for 1st time since 2023: Update

Adds comments from Warsh, other information Houston, 16 September (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers raised their target interest rate by a quarter point today, the first hike since late 2023, citing "elevated" uncertainty due, in part, to "geopolitical developments." The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate to 3.75-4pc, after holding the rate unchanged through five prior meetings this year. "Price stability is foundational to economic growth," Fed chair Kevin Warsh told reporters after the meeting. "We took an important step today to deliver it." In response to a question regarding rising borrowing costs, Warsh said the American economy appears to be strengthening, citing an increased demand for capital — an apparent reference to the artificial intelligence-fueled buildout of data centers. In their median estimates in their economic projections, officials penciled in one more likely quarter-point rate hike this year, with no hikes next year, even as eight of 18 survey participants forecast an additional hike next year. "While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient," the FOMC statement said. "Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce... Inflation remains elevated." The rate hike comes as renewed fighting in the Mideast Gulf is intensifying a global energy squeeze that began with the start of the war at the end of February. It also comes less than two months before key midterm elections expected to cost President Donald Trump control of at least one of the two houses of congress. In their median estimates, officials project inflation, as measured by the PCE index, to end the year at 3.7pc, slowing to 2.3pc next year and to 2.1pc in 2028, up slightly from their 2pc long term target. They estimate GDP growth to end the year at 2.3pc, compared with 2.2pc in the prior projections in June. Unemployment is expected to end the year at 4.1pc, down slightly from 4.2pc in the June forecast. Ahead of the meeting Wednesday, the CME's FedWatch tool had a given 92pc probability that the Fed would raise rates by a quarter point, up from 33pc odds a month earlier. The latest move followed rate cuts of 75 basis points over the last three FOMC meetings of 2025, as the Fed continued to normalize rates from two-decade highs reached in the aftermath to the post-Covid-19 runup in inflation. But mounting policy uncertainty unleashed by Trump's tariff wars, a crackdown on immigrants and erratic spending policies had prompted the Fed to remain on hold throughout 2026 until Wednesday's decision. Over that period, Trump repeatedly attacked then-Fed chair Jerome Powell for resisting pressures to lower rates. Powell stepped down as planned in May, and was replaced by Warsh, a former banker and Fed governor who had been viewed as a critic of Fed rate policy as well as an inflation hawk. Wednesday's FOMC decision is the first rate change since Warsh took office. Financial markets have grown increasingly skittish this year. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note tipped past 5pc on Wednesday for a third day, the highest intraday levels since 2007. The higher rates increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Bond yields are surging on rising debt levels amid increases in spending on defense and artificial intelligence and concerns the energy crisis unleashed by the Mideast Gulf war will deepen. The consumer price index rose at a 3.4pc annual rate in August, the same as July. But gasoline prices rose by an annual 27.4pc in August, up from 24.6pc, while fuel oil prices rose by 52pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US Fed lifts rate for 1st time since 2023

16/09/26
News
16/09/26

US Fed lifts rate for 1st time since 2023

Houston, 16 September (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers raised their target interest rate by a quarter point today, the first hike since late 2023, citing "elevated" uncertainty due, in part, to "geopolitical developments." The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate to 3.75-4pc, after holding the rate unchanged through five prior meetings this year. The rate hike comes as renewed fighting in the Mideast Gulf is intensifying a global energy squeeze that began with the start of the war at the end of February. It also comes less than two months before key midterm elections expected to cost President Donald Trump control of at least one of the two houses of congress. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Jones Act waiver approvals slow, but data limited

16/09/26
News
16/09/26

Jones Act waiver approvals slow, but data limited

New York, 16 September (Argus) — US trade officials' implementation of a case-by-case review of Jones Act waiver requests since mid-August has cut in half the number of international vessels approved for domestic US shipping, according to sources, although a significant lag in waiver reports is obscuring the data. The more thorough review of requests for waivers from the law that limits US port-to-port shipping to US-built, -owned and -operated ships has led to only about half of all Jones Act waiver requests being approved since the revised process started, two industry sources familiar with the matter told Argus . This compares to a near-blanket approval extended previously to any shippers requesting the waiver since it first went into effect 17 March. US refiners, who have used the waivers extensively to move crude and products between domestic ports, are now seeing some denials because of the new requirement that they prove a Jones Act ship is not available, according to sources, but many are still getting approved. The US Maritime Administration (Marad) database where authorized Jones Act waiver movements are posted lists 255 voyages in total so far this year, including 30 posted since the start of the new review process on 17 August. But all of the voyages in the database as of 16 September loaded prior to the new process starting, meaning the tougher standards were likely not applied to them, denying the market of a clear picture. "We're all a little bit in the dark as far as an official loop closing" Jennifer Carpenter, president of the American Maritime Partnership, an industry coalition that represents domestic maritime interests, told Argus . "We know there have been approvals and denials, but we don't yet have visibility on which ones." Gauging how many waivers have been approved is also difficult due to a 10-day lag between when a ship granted the waiver offloads its cargo and when the waiver is reported by US officials, according to Aaron Smith, president of the Offshore Marine Service Association. In one example, oil major Chevron provisionally hired a Panama-flagged tanker, the Nave Perseus , to load high sulfur vacuum gasoil on 24 May for what should have been a less-than-two day voyage from El Segundo, California to San Francisco. But the vessel did not discharge the cargo at nearby Richmond, California, until 12 July, Vortexa data show. Yet the May loaded voyage is the second most-recent entry in Marad data because the projected discharge date provided was between 8 August and 2 September, putting its official report due date as 12 September. The case-by-case waiver process "is an improvement over a blanket waiver" according to Carpenter, but waivers can still discourage investments in US' domestic maritime revitalization efforts. "Nothing kills investment more than uncertainty and the current system seems designed to breed uncertainty for the domestic maritime industry," Smith said. By Charlotte Bawol and Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Dutch fossil exit roadmap highlights difficulties

16/09/26
News
16/09/26

Dutch fossil exit roadmap highlights difficulties

London, 16 September (Argus) — The Netherlands has published a roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, outlining the difficulties the country will face in the transition and setting no date for an ultimate halt to fossil fuel use. The plan aims at the "minimisation" of fossil fuel use by 2050, with its "ultimate" phase-out date left undefined. It identifies challenges in moving away from each of natural gas, oil and coal. The country committed to producing a roadmap to end fossil fuel use at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last year, and recommitted to it at the Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels conference in Santa Marta in May. The latter conference was organised outside of formal UN channels and attended only by countries keen to advance on cutting fossil fuel use. The Netherlands co-hosted the meeting with Colombia. But the Latin American country's new administration has since said it plans to pursue a different approach to transitioning to cleaner energy, reopening the door to expanding oil and natural gas. The Dutch government said that the transition away from gas is made more difficult by the fuel's role in the Netherlands' energy system. "As long as full-fledged, sustainable alternatives are insufficiently available, natural gas remains essential for our society," the roadmap reads. Gas plays a large role in balancing the Netherlands' renewable-heavy power system, filling in during periods of low intermittent renewable output. Replacement of gas in domestic heating is underway, with increased electrification and insulation reducing consumption in recent years. But "uncertainties are considerably greater" on the use of gas in industry, the government said. Allocating fixed costs of the gas network to a shrinking number of users during the transition represents another difficulty. Some changes have been made which frontload costs to the coming years, when they can be spread across more users. Gas consumption would fall to around 110TWh by 2040, from around 250TWh in 2025, under the government's plan. But alternative government projections suggest consumption could fall to 140-190TWh. The government plans to prioritise domestic production of gas, citing its lower climate impact compared to imported LNG, and lower dependence on other countries. The country produces around 20 mn m³/d of natural gas, or the equivalent of 100TWh/yr. On oil, the government considers the transition to be relatively sure in mobility. But it said that phasing out of fossil fuel use in the chemical sector is more uncertain as demand for sustainable raw materials remains slow as a result of a lack of policy support. Coal use in the Netherlands is limited to the power and steel sectors. In the former, a ban will come into force in 2030, although this will negatively affect security of supply, according to the roadmap. In the steel sector the replacement of the country's two coal-consuming blast furnaces could take place in the 2030s, although this will depend on "technological and market developments," the government said. Environmental non-governmental organisation (NGO) welcomed the publication of the roadmap, but criticised the absence of phase out dates for oil and gas and ongoing gas production. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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