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Overview

Discover the global implications of Western Canada’s new Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline (TMX) and its potential impact on your business. The pipeline provides a critical route for Canadian crude oil to reach the Pacific, reshaping crude flows, shipping logistics, and refinery operations worldwide. 

Our extensive coverage provides deep insights into TMX crude shipping routes, key stakeholders, logistical challenges, and pricing dynamics. We highlight the vital role of logistics in identifying the most cost-effective solutions for buyers. 

We have been a trusted source for crude pricing and market analysis from the US Gulf Coast to China’s Shandong province and across the globe. Our methodologies are known for their transparency and relevance, supported by the expertise of our market coverage teams. Since 2010, we have covered domestic Canadian crude markets from our Calgary office. The Argus WCS Houston price is a leading benchmark for heavy crude in the Americas, with financial futures contracts settling on it providing essential risk management tools for Canadian crude globally.   

Whether you want a quick overview or an in-depth analysis of the factors shaping the TMX crude market, Argus gives you extensive and authoritative coverage.
 

How will these prices be used?

 The Argus fob Vancouver assessments for Cold Lake and High TAN provide transparency into an emerging market that aims to supply Pacific buyers of those grades in a more efficient way. These prices will be used by potential buyers to determine the competitiveness of Canadian exports our of Vancouver against those coming out of the US Gulf coast. Additionally, they will allow potential buyers to also determine where Canadian supplies stack up when compared to alternative supplies from other countries.

Once the market matures, there is also a possibility that these new assessments will be used in contracts to exchange volumes coming out of the pipeline so that participants can purchase them at the dock and either resell on the spot market or take into their own systems.

 

Latest TMX news

Browse the latest TMX news and analysis, including freight news

News
13/09/24

US oil exports: WTI mixed while TMX rises

US oil exports: WTI mixed while TMX rises

Houston, 13 September (Argus) — US light sweet waterborne spot crude prices were mixed over the week as Asian buying interest firms. WTI loading 15-45 days forward at the US Gulf coast narrowed its discount to December Ice Brent by 50¢/bl to 93¢/bl. The free-on-board (fob) value weakened by 4¢/bl against the secondary coastal crude benchmark WTI Houston to a 26¢/bl midpoint premium as October-loading differentials were mostly unchanged due to a major industry event happening in Singapore this week. Demand for WTI climbed a bit earlier in the week as Asia-Pacific refiners stepped up their purchases of October-loading WTI prior to the start of S&P's Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) conference this week in Singapore. It was unclear whether the pace of Asian buying would continue after this week. Asian buyers typically seek WTI supplies around two weeks earlier than European customers. Prior to the spike in Asian buying of WTI, Chinese demand had been relatively weak, although delegates at the Singapore conference said this demand weakness was overstated. Chinese oil demand growth is slowing but has not yet peaked, while growth in the use of naphtha and jet fuel is offsetting declines in motor fuel consumption, delegates heard at the Argus Asia-Pacific Oil Markets Forum on 10 September. The growth in the use of naphtha and jet fuel is offsetting declines in motor fuel consumption. The slowdown in oil demand growth is attributed to signs of weakness in the Chinese economy and the country's push for electric vehicles. Despite the slowdown, some experts believe that the weakness in Chinese oil demand is being exaggerated, and they view China as a maturing market with lower growth like other OECD countries. Elsewhere, tanker freight rates are expected to increase in the coming months due to a recovery in demand for dirty tankers, according to delegates at the Appec conference in Singapore. The rates for clean tanker freight fell in the third quarter due to competition from dirty tankers, but there has been a recent increase in demand for dirty tankers, hinting at a general recovery in the fourth-quarter rates. Americas Pacific coast Values for Canadian crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline strengthened amid volatility in the underlying futures market. Free-on-board (fob) High-tan crude exported from Vancouver strengthened 10¢/bl to a $10.53/bl discount to January Ice Brent, while Cold Lake fob Vancouver rose 20¢/bl to a $9.55/bl discount against the benchmark. Ice Brent crude futures prices fell below $70/bl during the week, the first time since late 2021. This decline came after low Chinese crude imports in July and the delay by OPEC+ alliance members to increase output. Despite disruptions to Libyan crude output, the prices continued to fall. OPEC's research arm remains bullish on oil demand, while some trading firm executives suggested that prices may need to fall further to stimulate demand. Analysts and traders are factoring in the softness in China, the impending Federal Reserve easing cycle in the US, and mixed messages from OPEC. Elsewhere, sections of the 622,000 b/d Keystone crude pipeline remain at reduced pressure since a spill nearly two years ago, but its operator is making strides to have those restrictions potentially removed. TC Energy's Keystone pipeline is a major thoroughfare for Canadian heavy crude destined for the US midcontinent and Gulf coast, but a rupture in December 2022 took the cross-border pipeline off line for more than three weeks. Service was mostly restored in the months following the incident, but more crude could likely be moved down the line if pressure restrictions are lifted. Canada's west coast now exports more Canadian crude than the US Gulf coast after the startup of the TMX pipeline. Lifted restrictions on the Keystone pipeline could potentially disrupt crude flows through TMX. By Andrea Agee and Rachel McGuire Planned US crude export cargoes Tanker name Size Charterer Destination Laycan Asia-Pacific Front Forth VLCC Phillips 66 China 7-14 September 2024 C. Earnest VLCC Mercuria China 7-14 September 2024 Khurais VLCC Unipec China 10-14 September 2024 Ilma VLCC SK Energy South Korea 15 September 2024 Legio X Equestris VLCC Aramco Trading Singapore 15 September 2024 Plata Glory VLCC Phillips 66 Taiwan and/or South Korea 19 September 2024 Seamajesty Suezmax Shell Singapore 19 September 2024 Dht Sundarabans VLCC ExxonMobil Singapore 24 September 2024 Yasa Scorpion VLCC Unpiec China 25-30 September 2024 Basrah VLCC Unipec China 30 September 2024 New Corolla VLCC Hyundai Oil Bank South Korea 3-5 October 2024 Front Alta VLCC Shell South Korea 5 October 2024 Cosflying Lake VLCC BP Singapore 8 October 224 Celeste Nova VLCC Chevron South Korea 8 October 224 Landbridge Glory VLCC Equinor Asia-Pacific 13 October 2024 Front Tana VLCC SK Energy South Korea 13 October 2024 Hillah VLCC PTT Ningbo, China 15 October 2024 Sinokor TBN VLCC Occidental Petroleum Asia-Pacific 16 October 2024 Europe Andromeda VLCC BP Europe 8-14 September 2024 Seaways Endeavor VLCC ExxonMobil Europe 14 September 2024 Levantine Sea Aframax Chevron Europe 15 September 2024 Seatribute Aframax BP Europe 15 September 2024 Yuan Bei Hai Suezmax Equinor Europe 15 September 2024 Arctic Suezmax BP Europe 18 September, 2024 Aegean Horizon Suezmax Vitol Europe 18-19 September 2024 Morning Hope VLCC ExxonMobil Europe 21 September 2024 Eagle Veracruz VLCC ExxonMobil Europe 27 September 2024 Cobalt Nova VLCC BP Europe 13-17 October 2024 Americas and misc. Front Shanghai Suezmax Energy Transfer Porto Sudeste, Brazil 13-14 September 2024 Green Adventure Aframax Chevron East Coast Canada 15 September 2024 Seaways Frio Suezmax Petrobras Brazil 21 September 2024 Shipping fixture reports Select US crude cargoes in transit Tanker name Size Loading window Destination ETA Asia-Pacific Houston Voyager VLCC 22-24 July 2024 Maoming, China Alongside Seavoice VLCC 20-24 July 2024 Ulsan, South Korea 15 September 2024 Dht Panther VLCC 11-16 July 2024 Kaohsiung, Taiwan 16 September 2024 Arsan VLCC 19-25 July 2024 Daesan, South Korea 16 September 2024 Dht Osprey VLCC 23-27 July 2024 Taoyuan, Taiwan 17 September 2024 Xin Long Yang VLCC 29 July 2024 - 3 August 2024 Paradip, India 20 September 2024 Maxim VLCC 26-29 July 2024 Kaohsiung, Taiwan 22 September 2024 Halcyon VLCC 2-6 August 2024 South Korea 27 September 2024 Cap Victor Suezmax 5-7 August 2024 Mumbai, India 28 September 2024 Advantage Verdict VLCC 12-16 August 2024 Singapore 5 October 2024 Cosnew Lake VLCC 13-18 August 2024 Yeosu, South Korea 9 October 2024 DHT Redwood VLCC 15-18 August 2024 Asia-Pacific 10 October 2024 Maharah VLCC 15-21 August 2024 Daesan, South Korea 12 October 2024 Maran Thaleia VLCC 16-21 August 2024 China 13 October 2024 Vl Brilliant VLCC 21-26 August 2024 Kaohsiung, Taiwan 17 October 2024 Dias I VLCC 23-27 August 2024 Geoje, South Korea 17 October 2024 Amphitrite VLCC 27-31 August 2024 Singapore 19 October 2024 Great Lady VLCC 30 August - 3 September 2024 Singapore 25 October 2024 Dijilah VLCC 3-6 September 2024 Mumbai, India 27 October 2024 Europe Ithaki DF Aframax 27-28 August 2024 Fos, France 16 September 2024 Seagrace Suezmax 29-31 August 2024 Immingham, United Kingdom 17 September 2024 Minerva Nounou Aframax 30-31 August 2024 Rotterdam, The Netherlands 17 September 2024 Achilleas Suezmax 30-31 August 2024 Rotterdam, The Netherlands 18 September, 2024 Eagle Ventura VLCC 28 August - 4 September Rotterdam, The Netherlands 20 September 2024 Nordic Zenith Suezmax 30 August - 2 September Wilhelmshaven, Germany 21 September 2024 Horten VLCC 31 August - 5 September 2024 Rotterdam, The Netherlands 22 September 2024 Drepanos Aframax 3-5 September 2024 Immingham, United Kingdom 23 September 2024 Atlantic Suezmax 29 August - 1 September 2024 Trieste, Italy 23 September 2024 Sola TS Aframax 6-8 September 2024 A Coruña, Spain 24 September 2024 Front Ull Suezmax 5-7 September 2024 Wilhelmshaven, Germany 25 September, 2024 Atlantic Emerald Aframax 7-9 September 2024 Spain 26 September 2024 Crude Zephyrus Suezmax 3-4 September 2024 Ancona, Italy 26 September 2024 Grimstad Aframax 9-11 September 2024 Rotterdam, The Netherlands 29 September 2024 Nordic Vega Suezmax 3-4 September 2024 Porvoo, Finland 29 September 2024 Minerva Libra Aframax 7-9 September 2024 Milazzo, Italy 30 September 2024 Kpler and Vortexa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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News

Asia has TMX option as heavy crudes tighten: PetroChina

10/09/24
News
10/09/24

Asia has TMX option as heavy crudes tighten: PetroChina

Singapore, 10 September (Argus) — The recently expanded 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline's start-up has improved Asian refiners' access to heavy Canadian crude at a time when supplies of such grades have tightened, PetroChina International's chief economist Wu Qiunan said. The TMX pipeline has cut the shipping time to export crude from Canada's west coast to Asia-Pacific to "only 19 days compared with the US Gulf [coast] which is basically 45 days," Wu said at the S&P Global Commodity Insights Appec conference in Singapore on 9 September. This "opens a very good option for Asia to receive more from Canada". Wu pointed out that the Middle East is seen as the "natural supply" source of crude for Asian refiners, but the freight distance to ship crude from the region is now similar to shipping crude from Canada's west coast. Canadian crude exported from the TMX pipeline is also heavy, while supplies of similar-quality crude from the Mideast have become tighter because of Opec+ production cuts. This meant that Asian refiners will "find value" for such heavy grades. Canadian crude is also not cheap and in fact has found "a fair price", Wu said. Asian demand will continue to grow in importance against the prospect of increasing production from the Americas, including from Guyana and Brazil. Asian demand has been key in soaking up the growth of US production and exports, Norway's state-controlled Equinor's senior vice-president for crude products and liquids Alex Grant said, with Asian oil demand and US supply growth sharing a "symbiotic" relationship. But the potential production increase from the Americas brings uncertainty to the outlook for US shale growth, especially with the current negative sentiment over oil demand growth. "We know there's going to be a lot of sources of [supply] growth coming in the next year or two, no matter what the price," Grant said. "So, the big question is what happens to US shale growth?" By Fabian Ng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX

06/09/24
News
06/09/24

Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX

Calgary, 6 September (Argus) — Crude exports from Canada's west coast rose sharply in June as shippers were eager to take advantage of enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets, according to Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC). The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline nearly tripled the capacity of the original 300,000 b/d system connecting oil-rich Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, with new volumes reaching the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) midway through May. Throughputs made a step change in June, the first full month of service, highlighting the pent-up demand among shippers who had waited years for the expansion to be built. Volumes on the Trans Mountain Mainline averaged 704,000 b/d in June, up from 412,000 b/d in May and 300,000 b/d in April, TMC said in its quarterly update. Of those flows, more than half went to the WMT for export in June at 361,000 b/d, ten times the 36,000 b/d sent to the terminal in April. The WMT handled 76,000 b/d of volume in May. Levels at the WMT have held steady in July and August above 350,000 b/d, according to more recent data from Kpler. Most of the volume has gone to China and the US west coast, but cargoes have also been aimed at new markets like Brunei this week . On a quarterly basis, the Mainline handled 471,000 b/d from April-June, up from 349,000 b/d from a year earlier. The WMT handled 157,000 b/d in the second quarter, up from 39,000 b/d across the same period. The Trans Mountain system also has a terminal at the Canada-US border near Sumas, Washington, that diverts crude to refineries in Washington state via the company's 111 kilometre (69 mile) Puget Sound Pipeline. Movements on Puget Sound rose to 246,000 b/d in June, up from 241,000 b/d in May and 199,000 b/d in April. Across the quarter, Puget Sound moved 229,000 b/d, up from 233,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Carrying costs for the highly-leveraged C$34bn ($25bn) TMX project weighed on the company's earnings despite an increase in toll-related revenues. Trans Mountain ended the second quarter with C$26.2bn of total debt, up from C$20.1bn a year earlier. Trans Mountain posted a loss of C$48mn in the second quarter, down from a C$172mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

A potential Canadian railed crude revival?

23/08/24
News
23/08/24

A potential Canadian railed crude revival?

Houston, 23 August (Argus) — Stagnant railed crude shipments from Canada could see a revival in 2026-2027 as growing oil sands output once again outstrips available pipeline capacity, according to a recent study. New upstream projects are expected to boost Canadian crude output to about 6mn b/d by 2033, up from about 5mn b/d in 2023, according to Enkon Energy Advisors, a Houston-based consultancy. Potential available crude exports could increase to 5mn b/d by 2027, Enkon said, surpassing the capacity of existing long-haul export lines including Enbridge's giant 3.1mn b/d Mainline system and the recently expanded 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) to Canada's west coast. Demand for spot railed crude volumes will likely remain low until 2026-2027 amid plentiful pipeline capacity, which is the most efficient way to move heavy crude over long distances. But with no new pipeline capacity additions on the horizon after TMX, "spot rail volumes are expected to become significant post-2027," Enkon said. Canadian crude-by-rail exports have averaged about 94,000 b/d this year through June, down from 119,000 b/d in 2023 and 143,000 b/d in 2022, according to Canada Energy Regulator (CER) data. Flows are well south of the all-time high yearly average 280,000 b/d set in 2019, and the 412,000 b/d monthly record set in February 2020. Railed crude exports are linked to differentials between crude prices at the rail and pipeline hub in Hardisty, Alberta, and their corresponding prices in Houston, Texas. Those differentials widened to near $25/bl in late 2018 amid a supply glut and persistent pipeline congestion, spurring Alberta's government to enact mandatory output cuts and negotiate billions of dollars worth of railed crude contracts that were subsequently dropped. That pricing spread has recently held at about $8/bl, less than half of the $15-20/bl spread that typically makes crude-by-rail movements viable for shippers without rail commitments. However, Enkon said that as Canadian pipeline capacity refills, that differential is expected to return to levels seen in 2018. "This situation underscores the urgency for producers transporting crude via rail to find strategies that mitigate negative impacts on their netbacks," Enkon said. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

TMX spurs oil sands to find ways to boost output

16/08/24
News
16/08/24

TMX spurs oil sands to find ways to boost output

Access to Asia-Pacific markets has driven oils sands production higher, but more pipeline capacity will be needed for further growth, writes Brett Holmes Calgary, 16 August (Argus) — Canada's oil sands are growing again as producers increase output, incentivised by new market opportunities created by the start-up in May of the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline to the country's Pacific coast. Output from the big four producers in Alberta's oil sands — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Cenovus, Suncor and Imperial Oil — rose by 8pc in the second quarter compared with a year earlier to a combined 3.26mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). Key to this improvement was an aggressive approach to maintenance aimed at minimising operational downtime and maximising productivity gains. Suncor, CNRL and Imperial each trimmed the number of days that major assets were off line during the quarter. Imperial completed the now annual turnaround at its Kearl mine in just 19 days, down from 35 days and a previous annual programme of two 35-day stoppages, while Suncor cut downtime at its Base Plant and Syncrude upgraders by a combined 12 days, partly through reducing the scope of work and partly through innovations such as using drones to carry out inspections that would have previously needed scaffolding. Operators will see the biggest productivity benefits "if we can just simply extend the intervals on entire turnarounds", Suncor chief executive Rich Kruger says. CNRL is taking that approach at its Horizon upgrader, shifting turnarounds from annually to once every two years, in a move it believes will add 14,000 b/d to its synthetic oil output. Imperial sees its maintenance rescheduling at Kearl boosting the mine's output by 20,000 b/d to 300,000 b/d. Oil sands producers now have an extra incentive to boost output, given the enhanced access to lucrative Asia-Pacific markets provided by TMX, which is having some impact on prices and differentials, executives say. Heavy sour Western Canadian Select in Alberta averaged about $67/bl in the second quarter, up from about $59/bl in the same period a year earlier. The improved market access has boosted profits and sentiment for Canadian producers, and further infrastructure expansion may be coming. Canadian midstream firm Enbridge is considering a further expansion of its 3.1mn b/d Mainline system running from Edmonton to the US midcontinent, which it could optimise to accommodate another 150,000 b/d of throughput by the end of 2027. Appetite for construction There is likely to be demand for this additional capacity. The Alberta Energy Regulator says it expects oil sands production to increase by 500,000 b/d over the next 10 years from 3.41mn b/d last year. And further additions may emerge if progress can be made on the issue of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to deal with associated emissions. CNRL is looking at a massive 195,000 b/d expansion of its 250,000 b/d Horizon project, but has said that an attractive fiscal and regulatory climate is "absolutely key" before it commits to any expansion of that size. That specifically means government support for the Pathways Alliance, a consortium of CNRL and five other oil sands producers which is proposing a C$16.5bn ($12bn) CCS project that would initially connect 14 oil sands facilities, with the aim of cutting CO2 emissions by 10mn-22mn t/yr by 2030. A green light for Pathways and other CCS schemes would be likely to act as a trigger for further investment in Alberta's oil sands. Shell and Strathcona have already announced that they are advancing separate CCS projects after they secured new investment tax credits, but the industry's focus will be heavily on a final investment decision for Pathways, which the Alberta government says is expected next year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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