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Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C by 2030: Scientists
Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C by 2030: Scientists
London, 11 June (Argus) — The rise in global temperature is projected to surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the limit sought by the Paris climate agreement — "in about four years", an international team of more than 70 scientists said today. "Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C" in 2025, compared with the 1850-1900 average, the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change report found. The Paris agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. "The rate at which heat is accumulating in the earth system suggests high levels of future warming", the report found. "The rate of human-induced warming remains at the all-time high of around 0.27°C per decade, driven primarily by record-high greenhouse gas levels." It estimated the remaining global carbon budget — the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted before the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded — is 130bn t/CO2, from the start of 2026. This estimate, which is a central one, "will be exhausted in around three years at current levels of CO2 emissions", the report found. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high 56.8bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, according to the report, "mainly from the burning of fossil fuels." "Although we still have record high levels of emissions, the growth of those CO2 emissions is slowing," the EU Copernicus programme's strategic lead for climate Samantha Burgess said today. "That doesn't mean we're on track yet, but it does mean that policy, technology, and societal choices are starting to bend the curve." Burgess was speaking at climate talks underway in Bonn, Germany, hosted by UN climate body the UNFCCC. El Nino weather conditions have now developed in the tropical Pacific, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed today. The weather pattern, which is naturally-occurring, typically leads to higher global temperatures. Current forecasting suggest it is "likely to be a very strong event", the UK's Met Office said today. Some forecasts suggest "values that would be of record strength", the Met Office said. "It is also highly likely that the El Nino will cause a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850", Met Office head of long-range forecasting Adam Scaife said. The hottest year on record to date is 2024. The past three years, 2023-25, are the hottest three years recorded. The average temperature across 2023-25 was 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels — with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13°C — data consolidated by the World Meteorological Organisation show. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Bunker lead times grow since US–Iran war began
Bunker lead times grow since US–Iran war began
Sao Paulo, 10 June (Argus) — Shipowners and traders have been booking spot bunker fuel supplies further in advance since the start of the Iran–US conflict, according to data collected by Argus . The longer lead times, between the placing of a bunker fuel order and the fuel being supplied, reflect concerns about potential supply disruptions and strategies to deal with price volatility. Disruption to shipping through and around the strait of Hormuz has encouraged buyers to secure fuel as far as four to six weeks ahead rather than risk encountering shortages, market participants said. Argus ' bunker assessments are typically for deliveries with a maximum of 9-12 days and up to 14 days for certain African ports. The shift reflects concerns about reduced availability, with around 20pc of global crude having previously transited the strait now missing and therefore restricting supply of bunker grades. Higher freight costs have also reduced the economic incentive for suppliers to import fuel, which further reduced availability. Very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices have strengthened sharply across major bunkering hubs since the start of the US-Iran war, reflecting tightening feedstock availability and growing supply concerns. Delivered VLSFO indications in Rotterdam have rose by around 45pc from 28 February to 31 May, prices in Panama increased by 49pc and in Singapore by 47pc. The tightening market has been particularly evident in Fujairah, the world's fourth-largest bunkering hub, where an acute supply shortage has left most suppliers without prompt VLSFO availability until mid-June. Market participants said disruptions to regional feedstock flows and the loss of supply from Kuwait's al-Zour refinery sharply reduced local blending activity, pushing Fujairah VLSFO premiums to record highs of $500-700/t against front-month Singapore cargo values in early June. The change in buying patterns has been happening worldwide. Delivery times for VLSFO in Singapore have extended to about 10-15 days forward in some cases, depending on supplies given tight blendstock availability, traders said this week. Typical delivery periods of about 7-10 days forward remain possible. Singapore loadings for low-sulphur marine gasoil (LSMGO) have also slowed, with market participants expecting this to ease only in the second half of June. LSMGO supplies are tight because of delays in cargo arrivals from South Korea, and most current availability will go towards previously booked orders. The lead time for high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has been steady at around 4-5 days, as supplies are ample in Singapore. In Gibraltar, the average lead time in the three months before the war started was around five days. This is now 10 days. In Rotterdam the average booking period is up to 10 days from seven. In South America, rising vessel traffic through the Panama Canal has increased congestion and lengthened waiting times. The tighter transit window has pushed bunker buyers in Balboa and Cristobal to secure fuel further in advance, with market participants reporting a shift away from prompt procurement toward longer lead-time bookings to ensure product availability and align deliveries with delayed canal crossings. The average bunker fuel lead time in the Panama Canal increased to 14 days in March-May, from 10 days in the three months ending 28 February. In Brazilian ports, longer lead times have also been driven by rising fuel oil export flows to Singapore, where demand for Brazilian supply has increased because of the disruption linked to the strait of Hormuz. The additional export pull has reduced feedstock availability for VLSFO blending in Brazil, tightening prompt supply at key ports like Santos and Paranagua. Santos' average bunker fuel lead times increased to 10 days in March-May, from eight days in the three months to 28 February. In Paranagua, average lead times rose to 13 days from 10 days over the same period. By Gabriel Tassi Lara, Natália Coelho and Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz
Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz
Dubai, 10 June (Argus) — Kuwait's state-owned KPC is exploring potential tie-ups with fellow Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries Saudi Arabia and the UAE that could help move its crude and oil products in the event of any future disruptions to flows through the strait of Hormuz. Kuwait is totally dependent on the strait to export its crude and oil products, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that allow them to divert a share of their oil to ports outside the strait. That has helped them better navigate the more than three-month closure of Hormuz triggered by the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February. "We are in discussions with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and in the Emirates to look at how to expand the pipeline system that they have to accommodate Kuwaiti barrels coming up," KPC chief executive Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum. Saudi Arabia's 7mn b/d capacity East-West pipeline can carry crude from the Abqaiq oil processing complex in the Eastern Province to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea for export. The UAE's 1.7mn b/d Adcop pipeline carries crude from Habshan in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, outside the strait of Hormuz. Sheikh Nawaf said the GCC typically has a mechanism that if one member cannot export oil for whatever reason, another with additional capacity could export on their behalf "and tally it up afterwards." But since "nobody has that capacity" given the situation in the strait, "instead, we are working with our brothers to look at pipeline capacity that can grow out," he said. He did not specify which projects Kuwait was studying with its neighbors. The KPC chief did caution, however, that an alternative export route would not totally insulate Kuwait, or any other country, from risk. Pipelines "are only as safe as the export facility at the end of it," Sheikh Nawaf said. "And you've seen how Iran has targeted both the Saudi and Emirati pipelines, and how those [attacks] have been effective, to a certain degree." Fujairah was targeted on five separate occasions between late February and early June, according to Argus tracking, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port was targeted once, and the East-West pipeline was targeted once , temporarily reducing throughput capacity by around 700,000 b/d. "A long pipeline needs compression. So, if you hit one node of that compression, you've got to rebuild that," said Sheikh Nawaf. "The easiest thing to rebuild or replace is the pipeline itself. But if you hit the compression facility, that takes more time." "And worse yet, is if you hit the export facility, because then, the pipeline is essentially useless," he said. "And we would have to work together with our partners [to recover]." Swift-ish recovery The disruption of oil flows through the strait of Hormuz forced Kuwait to scale back its crude production capacity to about 25pc of pre-conflict levels. "We took our production levels down at the beginning of the war, carefully and methodically, to what is only required for local consumption in Kuwait, because we could not export anything," Sheikh Nawaf said. Latest Argus estimates put Kuwaiti crude output at 580,000 b/d in May, compared with 2.59mn b/d in February. Many weeks of on-and-off diplomacy between Iran and the US has not led to clarity on when marine traffic could meaningfully recover, but Sheikh Nawaf said when it does Kuwait should be able to resume the majority of its production within less than a month. "We could get back to 80pc of our shut-in production [back] in less than a month, probably three weeks, because we have resilient reservoirs," he said. With around 2mn b/d of crude output shut-in, this would imply a return of 1.6mn b/d within weeks, lifting output to around 2.1mn b/d. Sheikh Nawaf suggested the shut-in of some reservoirs may have "benefited" them because it "allowed them to settle and recharge, essentially, the underground pressure." But he said the final 20pc "is always the hardest," which could take another "three to four months" to recover. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
European FCC margins flip back to premiums
European FCC margins flip back to premiums
London, 9 June (Argus) — Northwest European fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) margins have returned to a premium after a rare few sessions of negativity. FCC margins — calculated as a 70:30 ratio between gasoline and diesel refining margins adjusting for delivered northwest Europe low-sulphur vacuum gasoil (VGO) differentials to crude prices — were a $3.59/bl premium at the close on Monday, 8 June, the highest since 1 May and compared with rare discounts , of around $10/bl, in the last week of May. The shift is important at the start of the European summer driving season. Blending indicators have been relatively profitable in Europe, with the gasoline-naphtha spread at $264.35/t at the last close. Paper market participants have pointed to increased buying interest for the paper 'gas-nap' contract since mid-May, with trades reported around $240-270/t. The wider spread, along with good export interest from US, have supported gasoline blending activity even with low FCC margins. A European trader said the transatlantic arbitrage appeared to narrow in recent sessions, suggesting a slowdown in exports to the US in the coming weeks. This may hamper the need to blend gasoline. But demand in the Mediterranean region has picked up, an analyst said, especially in France because of refinery maintenance works. A rise in European demand may partially account for waning export interest. VGO premiums against the Ice August Brent crude futures contract narrowed to a $28/bl premium, from a record high $40.50/bl on 26 May. Supply tightness has eased slightly, with two VGO cargo arrivals from Saudi Arabia last week. Narrowing VGO premiums have also supported hydrocracker margins this week, which recovered to a $13.35/bl premium on 8 June from a 41¢/bl discount on 26 May. European refiners have prioritised diesel and jet fuel yields in recent months as the European middle distillate markets have lost a significant share of imports from east of Suez. A large share of available VGO has, hence, been almost entirely redirected to the diesel pool for hydrocracker utilisation. An estimated 15pc of European diesel imports have been hindered due to the US-Iran war. Refiners are likely to continue increasing diesel yields, which may further cut into VGO availability for FCCs, despite the rise in margins. By Atishya Nayak Secondary unit margins $/bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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