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European naphtha pricing in Red Sea disruption risk
European naphtha pricing in Red Sea disruption risk
London, 22 July (Argus) — European naphtha market participants are increasingly pricing in the risk of disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, although market participants said the Yemen-based Houthi militant group's threat to Saudi shipping is yet to result in meaningful changes to physical cargo flows. The east-west naphtha swap spread was $72.75/t on 21 July, wider by $18/t on the day and by $30/t on the week, with heightened concern about supply to destinations east of Suez. The possibility of Red Sea disruption comes as Russian naphtha exports are in decline and Chinese buying interest shows signs of improvement. Naphtha exports through Bab el-Mandeb averaged around 388,000t/month in the past two months, roughly double the 2025 monthly average. A trader active in west-to-east naphtha arbitrage trade told Argus that at least one cargo was recently fixed from Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal, providing an early test of shipowners' willingness to continue using the route. The trader said some owners have suspended Red Sea transits, and others are waiting to see how the Houthis will enforce any restrictions. The group has said it will only target vessels carrying Saudi cargo, or that have left or are heading to Saudi ports. The uncertainty has started to affect trading behaviour. A European naphtha broker said liquidity is weakening, with market participants becoming cautious about committing supply until the implications for Asian buying requirements become clearer. "Traders will buy and sell less volume as the market becomes more volatile," the broker said. "There will be less liquidity in the market overall." An Asia-based light-ends analyst said balances "are gradually tightening", with supply risks outweighing concerns about demand. Cargoes can be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope if the Red Sea situation worsens. But doing so would substantially increase freight costs and voyage times, raising the cost of supplying Asia-Pacific buyers. Argus estimates sending a Long Range 2 (LR2) tanker from the Mediterranean to Japan around south Africa would add around 19 days to the journey and nearly $600,000 to the fuel bill at current prices. Market participants said the naphtha east-west spread may need to widen significantly further before long-haul Cape routing becomes routinely economic. The light-ends analyst estimated the spread may need to approach $80/t, depending on freight costs. Russian exports are likely to fall because of refinery disruptions, while restrictions on gasoline exports could divert additional naphtha into domestic blending, limiting global availability. By Jide Tijani and John Ollett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil futures: WTI up on supply disruption concerns
Oil futures: WTI up on supply disruption concerns
Houston, 21 July (Argus) — US benchmark WTI crude futures advanced today on mounting concerns over supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East. August Nymex WTI rose by $1.68/bl to $84.91/bl while September Ice Brent rose by $1.79/bl to $91.01/bl. The September Brent-September WTI spread narrowed by 7¢/bl to $6.67/bl. WTI at the Magellan East Houston terminal was discussed at a prompt 25-35¢/bl premium bid-ask spread to the Cushing benchmark at 3pm ET, according to the Argus Crude Market Ticker, above Monday's 17¢/bl volume-weighted average premium. Vessels are continuing to violate a US blockade on Iranian ports, while commercial traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains overwhelmingly controlled by Iran, despite US official's claims to the contrary. The US Central Command (Centcom) said it redirected seven commercial vessels and disabled one to prevent ships from leaving or entering Iranian ports as of 20 July. US president Donald Trump on Tuesday told reporters during a meeting with Lebanese president Joseph Aoun that the blockade is "like a steel wall" and that no ships are getting through. But data from vessel tracking service Vortexa shows that nine vessels departing or heading to Iran ports have transited through the strait of Hormuz since the US blockade was reimposed on 14 July. Separately, several large tankers on 21 July turned away from voyages passing Yemen's coastline or the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea, according to AIS data. Three were very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and one was an Aframax. All had either loaded, or were going to load, crude at Saudi Arabian Red Sea ports. This comes a day after the Yemen-based, Iran-backed Houthis militant group said it imposed a maritime ban on Saudi Arabia. The Houthis today said six ships had turned back, although that could not be verified. Elsewhere, CPC Blend crude loadings remain suspended following recent drone attacks on tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, traders say. Loadings were halted on Monday after the tanker Nelsa was hit while loading at the terminal's SPM 1 single-point mooring buoy. Nymex RBOB rose by 1.69¢/USG to $3.4059/USG while Nymex ultra-low sulphur diesel rose by 0.76¢/USG to $4.1266/USG. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Houthi threat could support European MR rates
Houthi threat could support European MR rates
London, 21 July (Argus) — Rates for Medium Range (MR) clean product tankers could face competing drivers in the coming weeks, as possible disruption around the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea could force vessels onto longer routes, while tighter European gasoline balances reduce export volumes. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militant group has announced a ban on Saudi Arabian "maritime navigation", although the scope of the restrictions remains unclear. Saudi diesel exports from Red Sea ports have become an important source of supply for Europe since March. More than 2mn t/month has loaded from Saudi Red Sea terminals, with around one-third heading to Europe, according to Vortexa. Any disruption to traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait could increase the share of Saudi diesel exports heading to Europe, as cargoes destined for Asia may face longer and costlier routes. Cargoes moving west from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast can still reach Europe through the Suez Canal, while eastbound shipments would likely be diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. The longer voyages would increase demand for both MR and long range (LR) tankers, supporting freight rates. At least five tankers heading to or from Saudi Arabian Red Sea ports appeared to have turned around today, although an India-origin clean product tanker passed through unharmed. The Houthis have not carried out any strikes on shipping since announcing the ban, and the situation is still developing. If attacks start, shipowners sailing from Indian or other non-Saudi ports may become more reluctant to use the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis have previously widened their target list after initial attacks. A diversion around the Cape of Good Hope for a west coast India-Rotterdam voyage would add around 15 days. An LR2 tanker burns around 40t/d of bunker fuel and costs around $30,000/d to charter, implying additional costs of at least $800,000, or around $8.85/t. But it is unclear if the ban will target only Saudi-linked vessels or wider commercial traffic. Other vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait may not face Houthi attacks if they are not linked to Saudi Arabia, one additional war risk premium (AWRP) insurance broker told Argus today. The Houthis have said only Saudi maritime traffic is in their crosshairs, suggesting cargoes not originating in or heading to Saudi Arabia may avoid any aggression, the broker said. AWRPs are currently around 0.2pc for cargoes and 0.5pc for hulls operating between the Eritrean border and the Saudi port of Jizan, the broker said. AWRP cover does not apply to other Saudi ports north of Jizan, they added. Premiums are expected to rise, but remain well below those for transiting the strait of Hormuz because of the greater threat posed by Iranian strikes on vessels. "One's a kitten and one's a tiger," the broker said. The European MR market has been under pressure in recent weeks. Competition from Brazilian buyers for US Gulf cargoes, weak US Gulf-Europe transport economics and reduced diesel export availability have weighed on cargo volumes and pushed MRs towards shorter-haul trades. Tighter gasoline balances could also limit support for MR rates. Strong seasonal demand and falling inventories have tightened Europe's gasoline market. If refiners prioritise domestic supply over exports, freight demand could weaken and offset some of the support from longer Red Sea-Europe diesel flows. The UK Continent-US Atlantic coast MR rate fell to WS130 ($21.53/t) on 21 July, its lowest since 7 July, while the west Africa route dropped to WS180 ($34.60/t), also its lowest since 7 July. Both remain well below their peaks of WS317.5 ($52.58/t) and WS445 ($85.53/t) reached on 10 April, just over a month after the outbreak of the US-Iran war on 28 February. By Erika Tsirikou and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German buyers source from Miro on Rhine shipping woes
German buyers source from Miro on Rhine shipping woes
Hamburg, 20 July (Argus) — Traders that usually load at Rhine or Main terminals are increasingly sourcing fuels from the Miro refinery in southwest Germany because of tightening supply conditions. Low Rhine water levels have cut inland shipping capacity and lifted price levels in western Germany. The river's level at Kaub restricted vessels on routes from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to the Main and Upper Rhine to under 20pc of normal cargo capacity in the week to 17 July. At the same time, shipowners report stronger demand for barge space, as more vessels are needed to move the same volumes. Freight rates for destinations along the Main and Upper Rhine have risen sharply as a result. Restricted resupply options and rising transport costs have pushed wholesale prices in the Rhine-Main region disproportionately higher than in other German regions. Traders report tighter product availability, especially for gasoline. The 310,000 b/d Miro refinery in Karlsruhe continues to run at high rates while local demand remains weak. Suppliers there have raised prices far less than at barge-supplied terminals. Some Rhine-Main traders are accepting longer hauls from Karlsruhe, as procurement there remains competitive despite higher logistics costs. Heating oil demand remains weak. Diesel demand is supported by seasonal consumption from agriculture and construction, but traders said many end users are deferring purchases where possible. Prices rose sharply early in the week on higher Ice gasoil futures. Futures climbed by nearly $90/t on 14 July after the US government announced a resumption of its blockade policy towards Iran in the strait of Hormuz. Heating oil and diesel prices in Germany rose by up to €11.40/100l compared with the previous day. A fire broke out last week at BP's 251,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery , shutting a diesel desulphurisation unit. BP said the rest of the plant was unaffected. Local traders said diesel and gasoline loadings there had already been halted since 13 July for pipeline maintenance, so the unit outage initially had no additional market effect. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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