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US biofuel tax rule may help resellers, farmers: Update
US biofuel tax rule may help resellers, farmers: Update
Updates with details from draft regulations, industry reactions New York, 3 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration expects to update the rules around a low-carbon fuel tax credit to allow more types of fuel sales to qualify and to encourage farmers to grow crops more sustainably. The US Department of Treasury on Tuesday released a long-awaited proposal spelling out how to qualify for the "45Z" tax credit, which kicked off in 2025 and was extended by Republicans' tax and energy bill last summer. The general structure of the credit — which offers a sliding scale of subsidies to alternative fuel producers based on greenhouse gas emissions — is known, but industry has been pushing for more clarity on thorny eligibility questions. The proposed regulations Tuesday clarify, for instance, that producers can claim 45Z tax breaks for fuel that is sold to intermediaries. Sales to wholesalers or traders are common in fuel markets, but lawyers interpreted partial guidance issued in the waning days of former-president Joe Biden's term as potentially requiring that fuel must be sold to end users to qualify. The fuel sale question had left many refiners unclear as to how to qualify for an incentive crucial to their margins and had snarled logistics in key biofuel markets. Major biofuel producers idled facilities last year too, in part because of the lack of final rules around what was then a new and unfamiliar tax break. Producers of biofuels such as ethanol, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel have been closely watching for the 45Z tax guidance, especially since the Trump administration is late setting new biofuel blend mandates and Congress has punted on a proposal to allow a higher-ethanol gasoline blend year-round. The proposed regulations, which will go through a public comment period that includes a 28 May public hearing, will still need to be finalized. But they signal how the Trump administration is thinking about the complicated incentive and will allow producers to rely on existing guidance when preparing their tax returns until final regulations are available. "I think there is going to be a significantly greater sense of certainty going forward — obviously not absolute certainty — but I think people will be willing to start negotiating these contracts assuming the proposed regulations get finalized in substantially the same form," said Liz McGinley, chair of the tax department at law firm Bracewell. More certainty from the proposed rules could lead to "more successful and economically reasonable" tax credit transfer sales too, McGinley said. Some biofuel makers have already signed multimillion-dollar deals to sell their 45Z credits at a discount to their book values, promising revenue from the incentive even before tax season. Others have waited for more clarity. Soil to subsidy Some details still depend on final rules, however. The proposal signals that the Trump administration expects to eventually credit more on-farm emissions reductions, which would effectively reward biofuel producers that source sustainably grown crops with larger subsidies. The Biden administration had released an initial calculator so that corn, soybean and sorghum farmers could track the climate benefits of practices like cover crops and no-till agriculture. But it was unclear whether Trump, a skeptic of climate science, would continue the effort at all. The Tuesday proposal was unexpectedly far-reaching in those plans for rewarding sustainably grown crops, suggesting that the agriculture program could mean larger tax breaks not just in the future but for fuel sold last year. A tool for incorporating carbon reductions from farm practices will "likely" be added to a Department of Energy emissions tracking model this year, the Tuesday proposal said. Treasury expects to issue additional recordkeeping and verification requirements too. "We have a seat at the table, but we do not have the details yet," said Mitchell Hora, an Iowa farmer and the chief executive of soil health tracking platform Continuum Ag. Biofuel and farm groups were encouraged by the proposal — particularly the clarity around fuel sales — but said they needed more information too, including an updated version of the Department of Energy (DOE) emissions tracking model. A Treasury official told Argus that DOE was working on model updates "in the near term". DOE did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Department of Agriculture said that fuel producers should treat the farm emissions tracking tools issued under the Biden administration as "preliminary and should not rely upon them". Legislation signed by Trump in 2025 already restricts the 45Z credit starting this year to US producers of fuels sourced from North American feedstocks, and the Tuesday proposal signals that the administration could require additional recordkeeping for feedstocks imported from Canada and Mexico. The law also changed how regulators track land use emissions, effectively hiking subsidies this year for crop-based fuels even before accounting for on-farm practices. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — Private-sector analysts raised Mexico's 2026 GDP growth outlook in the central bank's January survey, as forecasts adjust to data last week showing stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate rose to 1.3pc from 1.15pc in the mid-December survey, while the 2027 outlook edged down to 1.8pc from 1.85pc. Mexico's economy expanded by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, led by solid expansion in the agriculture sector and more modest growth in the industrial and services sectors. Growth prospects for 2026 and 2027 hinge on a timely and successful renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, scheduled to conclude in July, multiple market sources told Argus . Optimism around the talks is reflected in the survey's quarterly breakdown, which projects 2026 GDP growth accelerating to 1.54pc in the third quarter from 1.1pc in the second quarter. Public security remained the top perceived risk to short-term GDP growth, widening its lead over foreign trade concerns, with both risks receiving at least twice as many responses as other factors cited in the survey. Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly higher in the January survey, moving to 3.95pc from 3.88pc in December. The estimate for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from the previous survey at 3.75pc. Annual inflation slowed to 3.69pc in December — the lowest December reading since 2020 — from 3.8pc in November, driven by easing agricultural and energy prices and some moderation in core inflation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.33pc from 4.43pc, though it remained above the central bank's 4pc upper target for an eighth consecutive month. The central bank cut the target rate to 7pc on 18 December from 10pc at the start of 2025, with analysts expecting the tightening cycle to end this year and the rate to close 2026 at 6.5pc. The bank's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 5 February. Analysts also strengthened their peso forecast, projecting an end-2026 exchange rate of Ps18.50/$1, compared with Ps19.23/$1 in the previous survey. The end-2027 forecast moved to Ps19.00/$1 from Ps19.45/$1. The US dollar weakened roughly 4pc against the peso over the last month, trading at Ps17.26/$1 on 3 February compared with Ps17.9/$1 on 3 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crude Summit: Too early to call plateau in shale
Crude Summit: Too early to call plateau in shale
Houston, 3 February (Argus) — US shale crude output growth is forecast to slow in 2026 as companies run up against efficiency constraints and consolidation, but it may still be too early to call a plateau, according to panelists speaking at Argus' Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas, today. "I would be slightly more optimistic," said Frederic Lasserre, global head of market research and analysis at Gunvor. "We always underestimate the impact of productivity gains." The consolidation from a number of large mergers among shale producers has yet to deliver all the productivity benefits many expect, Lasserre said, while artificial intelligence may also help improve well recovery rates. But Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, cautioned that unit productivity is on the ropes in the US shale patch as the sector matures. "We might not be there but we are very close to the peak," Singh said. The panel had different views on whether the US economy has managed to escape the effects of the broad range of on-again/off-again tariffs announced by President Donald Trump in the past year. "It does seem like we dodged a bullet, especially when it comes to the effect of tariffs," said Singh. "There are a lot of other cyclical indicators that are suggesting that we are actually seeing some momentum on the upside, which is quite the opposite of what we were talking about 12 months ago." But Lasserre cautioned that tariffs were still top of his list when it came to risks for economic growth. "It can take a long time before you see the impact," he said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s Dec industrial output lowest since mid-2024
Brazil’s Dec industrial output lowest since mid-2024
Sao Paulo, 3 February (Argus) — Brazil's industrial output fell by 1.2pc in December from a month prior, marking the steepest decline since July 2024, according to national statistics agency IBGE. All four major categories showed declines, with capital goods and durable consumer goods output down by 8.3pc and 4.4pc, respectively, from November 2025 . Auto, chemicals and metallurgy were among the largest negative contributors, down by 8.7pc, by 6.2pc and by 5.4pc, respectively, from November, IBGE said. Output of petroleum coke, oil products and biofuels increased by 5.4pc in December from the previous month, after three consecutive monthly drops, while the extraction industries pushed up output by nearly 1pc. Transformative industry ended the year at 1.9pc below November 2025. IBGE data show. Despite month-to-month decreases, December's industrial output rose by 0.4pc from a year earlier. Plastic materials and machinery and equipment represented the largest contributors to the increase, which is also due to an additional workdays this year, IBGE said. 2025 output ticks up Brazil's 2025 industrial output reached a third increase in a row at 0.6pc above a year earlier and pre-pandemic levels, following a 3.1pc rise in 2024, IBGE said. Extraction and food industries were among the largest contributors to the increase, up by 4.9pc and 1.5pc, respectively. Machinery and equipment, metallurgy, chemicals and pharmacy products pushed up the Brazilian industry in 2025, despite a 5.3pc slump in the production of oil products and biofuels. Production of durable and intermediate goods — feedstocks for industries that do not directly reach the final consumer — rose by 2.5pc and 1.5pc in 2025, respectively, from a year earlier. Brazilian auto industry, crude and natural gas production helped lead gains, IBGE said. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate stable at 15pc since June 2025. Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 4.26pc in December . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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