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Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — Private-sector analysts raised Mexico's 2026 GDP growth outlook in the central bank's January survey, as forecasts adjust to data last week showing stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate rose to 1.3pc from 1.15pc in the mid-December survey, while the 2027 outlook edged down to 1.8pc from 1.85pc. Mexico's economy expanded by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, led by solid expansion in the agriculture sector and more modest growth in the industrial and services sectors. Growth prospects for 2026 and 2027 hinge on a timely and successful renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, scheduled to conclude in July, multiple market sources told Argus . Optimism around the talks is reflected in the survey's quarterly breakdown, which projects 2026 GDP growth accelerating to 1.54pc in the third quarter from 1.1pc in the second quarter. Public security remained the top perceived risk to short-term GDP growth, widening its lead over foreign trade concerns, with both risks receiving at least twice as many responses as other factors cited in the survey. Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly higher in the January survey, moving to 3.95pc from 3.88pc in December. The estimate for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from the previous survey at 3.75pc. Annual inflation slowed to 3.69pc in December — the lowest December reading since 2020 — from 3.8pc in November, driven by easing agricultural and energy prices and some moderation in core inflation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.33pc from 4.43pc, though it remained above the central bank's 4pc upper target for an eighth consecutive month. The central bank cut the target rate to 7pc on 18 December from 10pc at the start of 2025, with analysts expecting the tightening cycle to end this year and the rate to close 2026 at 6.5pc. The bank's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 5 February. Analysts also strengthened their peso forecast, projecting an end-2026 exchange rate of Ps18.50/$1, compared with Ps19.23/$1 in the previous survey. The end-2027 forecast moved to Ps19.00/$1 from Ps19.45/$1. The US dollar weakened roughly 4pc against the peso over the last month, trading at Ps17.26/$1 on 3 February compared with Ps17.9/$1 on 3 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s Dec industrial output lowest since mid-2024
Brazil’s Dec industrial output lowest since mid-2024
Sao Paulo, 3 February (Argus) — Brazil's industrial output fell by 1.2pc in December from a month prior, marking the steepest decline since July 2024, according to national statistics agency IBGE. All four major categories showed declines, with capital goods and durable consumer goods output down by 8.3pc and 4.4pc, respectively, from November 2025 . Auto, chemicals and metallurgy were among the largest negative contributors, down by 8.7pc, by 6.2pc and by 5.4pc, respectively, from November, IBGE said. Output of petroleum coke, oil products and biofuels increased by 5.4pc in December from the previous month, after three consecutive monthly drops, while the extraction industries pushed up output by nearly 1pc. Transformative industry ended the year at 1.9pc below November 2025. IBGE data show. Despite month-to-month decreases, December's industrial output rose by 0.4pc from a year earlier. Plastic materials and machinery and equipment represented the largest contributors to the increase, which is also due to an additional workdays this year, IBGE said. 2025 output ticks up Brazil's 2025 industrial output reached a third increase in a row at 0.6pc above a year earlier and pre-pandemic levels, following a 3.1pc rise in 2024, IBGE said. Extraction and food industries were among the largest contributors to the increase, up by 4.9pc and 1.5pc, respectively. Machinery and equipment, metallurgy, chemicals and pharmacy products pushed up the Brazilian industry in 2025, despite a 5.3pc slump in the production of oil products and biofuels. Production of durable and intermediate goods — feedstocks for industries that do not directly reach the final consumer — rose by 2.5pc and 1.5pc in 2025, respectively, from a year earlier. Brazilian auto industry, crude and natural gas production helped lead gains, IBGE said. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate stable at 15pc since June 2025. Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 4.26pc in December . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crude Summit: Water a challenge, opportunity for Texas
Crude Summit: Water a challenge, opportunity for Texas
Houston, 3 February (Argus) — Water produced by oil and gas operators in Texas continues to challenge the industry but may present opportunities for drought-stricken areas, according to the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC). Produced water is "one of the greatest challenges facing our domestic production", RRC chairman Jim Wright told the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas, on Tuesday, with roughly five barrels of waste water produced for every barrel of oil. This translates into about 30mn b/d of water for the country's largest oil producing state, which pumped out 5.8mn b/d of crude across 2025. Another 10mn b/d of so of water is brought in from Oklahoma, where reinjection in the neighbouring state is also limited because of overpressurization underground. Disposing that water back into the ground has become more challenging in the era of prolific horizontal drilling, however, Wright said. Wastewater injection wells have been linked to earthquakes throughout the Permian basin, as well as the water finding its way back to the surface through the tens of thousands of abandoned wells. Both the RRC and drillers reinjecting water are cognizant of overpressurization underground as a consequence of shallower injection, which can add to both complexity and to drilling costs. "It's getting very difficult to stuff 12 ounces into a six-ounce glass," said Wright. "So, the future for us is to make sure that we can now use this water for beneficial reuse." There are some efforts afoot to recycle the produced water for other applications, such as agriculture, particularly in west Texas. "The problem is produced water for other uses other than injection is a brand new area," said Wright. "Texas needs access to new water sources." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US biofuel tax rule to benefit resellers, farmers
US biofuel tax rule to benefit resellers, farmers
New York, 3 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration expects to update the rules around a low-carbon fuel tax credit to allow more types of fuel sales to qualify and to encourage farmers to grow crops more sustainably. The US Department of Treasury on Tuesday will release a long-awaited proposal spelling out how to qualify for the "45Z" tax credit, which kicked off in 2025 and was extended by Republicans' tax and energy bill last summer. The general structure of the credit — which offers a sliding scale of subsidies to alternative fuel producers based on greenhouse gas emissions — is known, but industry has been pushing for more clarity on thorny eligibility questions. The proposed regulations Tuesday will clarify, for instance, that producers can claim 45Z tax breaks for fuel that is sold to intermediaries, according to Treasury officials. Sales to wholesalers or traders are common in fuel markets, but lawyers interpreted partial guidance issued in the waning days of former-president Joe Biden's term as potentially requiring that fuel must be sold to end users to qualify. The fuel sale question had left many refiners unclear how exactly to qualify for an incentive crucial to their margins and snarled logistics in key biofuel markets. Major biofuel producers idled facilities last year too, in part because of the lack of final rules around what was then a new and unfamiliar tax break. 45Z tax guidance has been closely awaited by producers of biofuels like ethanol, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, especially as the Trump administration is late setting new biofuel blend mandates and Congress has punted on a proposal to allow a higher-ethanol gasoline blend year-round. The proposed regulations, which will go through a 60-day public comment period after publication in the Federal Register , will still need to be finalized. But they signal how the Trump administration is thinking about the complicated incentive, and will allow producers to rely on existing guidance when preparing their tax returns until final regulations are available. Some details will depend on final rules, however. The proposal will signal that the Trump administration expects to eventually credit more on-farm emissions reductions, which would effectively reward biofuel producers that source sustainably grown crops with larger subsidies, Treasury officials said. The Biden administration had released an initial calculator so that corn, soybean and sorghum farmers could track the climate benefits of practices like cover crops and no-till agriculture. But it was unclear whether Trump, a skeptic of climate science, would continue the effort at all. Treasury expects to publish additional guidance on recordkeeping and verification requirements and will also need to coordinate with other agencies to fully incorporate new data on agricultural practices into a government model for tracking emissions. Legislation signed by Trump last year already restricts the 45Z credit starting this year to US producers of fuels sourced from North American feedstocks. The law also changed how regulators track land use emissions, effectively hiking subsidies this year for crop-based fuels. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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