Nitrogen
Overview
The ease of urea availability east and west of Suez has shaped the current trade flows of this key nitrogen fertilizer. Despite challenges posed by energy prices and military conflicts, key import markets such as India, Australia, and Latin America remain robust. But structural oversupply and the role of China as a swing exporter have led to price volatility as this fast-moving market seeks equilibrium, more so during seasonally high-demand periods.
Our extensive nitrogen coverage includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate. Argus has many decades of experience covering the nitrogen market and incorporates our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including ammonia and natural gas to provide the full market narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Daily and weekly nitrogen price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of urea prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest nitrogen news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global nitrogen industry.
Pupuk Indonesia closes tender to buy Feb-Nov amsul
Pupuk Indonesia closes tender to buy Feb-Nov amsul
Adds information about offers Singapore, 27 January (Argus) — State-owned Pupuk Indonesia closed a tender to buy a total of 40,000t of bulk standard caprolactam-grade amsul for delivery over February-November 2026 to its subsidiary Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (PKT). Pupuk Indonesia has requested that offers be submitted on a formula price with a variable discount. Discounts ranging at $5-6/t were offered by a trading firm, market participants said, although this was not confirmed by the companies involved. The tender received at least 4 offers from trading firms, with the highest discount indicated at $5-6/t. Awards are pending. PKT has requested four single shipments of 10,000t each to Bontang port. The first shipment should be loaded by the third week of February, followed by one shipment each in June, September and November. By Dinise Chng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fertistream sees challenging 2026 for phosphates, urea
Fertistream sees challenging 2026 for phosphates, urea
London, 22 January (Argus) — Brazilian fertilizer buyers will continue to look for affordable alternative products to phosphates and nitrogen in 2026, trading firm Fertistream's head of global market intelligence, Milton Sato, told Argus in an interview ahead of the Argus Fertilizer Latino Americano conference in Miami next week. But the lack of Chinese phosphates will limit Brazilian buyers' options. Sato also highlighted the risk of tighter nitrogen supply in Europe following the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Edited highlights follow: In 2025, many Brazilian buyers replaced urea with ammonium sulphate (amsul), and MAP with NPs, SSP and TSP. How do you see this trend in 2026? Driven by an unfavourable grain-to-fertilizer ratio, Brazilian farmers looked for cheaper alternatives to fulfil their nitrogen and phosphates needs. Given that amsul is not subject to Chinese export quotas and that the Chinese cost of production is rather low due to its by-product nature, we expect Chinese amsul exports to remain a prominent nitrogen option. For Brazilian farmers, besides the competitive price, amsul is also a source of sulphate. For phosphates, at least until China returns to the export market — which is unlikely to be earlier than April — Brazilian farmers will have to rely more on other options, such as imported MAP and TSP. SSP supplies are pressured by escalating sulphur costs. Mainly to counter rising sulphur costs, China announced that phosphate exports [will be suspended] until August. But officials may review this decision once the peak domestic season ends in April. As China resumes exports, expect Brazilian farmers to consider the low-concentration NPs as an alternative. SSP imports will also remain on the radar, should prices become more competitive. CBAM came into effect on 1 January in Europe. How will Fertistream and other trading firms deal with CBAM? The level of uncertainty around the CBAM remains high. As such, expect fertilizer traders to maintain a conservative stance to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of a political decision. EU importers began front-loading imports in December, especially urea and UAN. As a result, stocks were filled to the brim. This provided some breathing room for buyers. Assuming no changes to the CBAM rollout in January, EU nitrogen buyers will likely avoid the high CBAM charges on UAN and CAN imports, relying more on locally produced products and, to a lesser extent, urea imports. The ongoing uncertainty is already denting the first-quarter EU imports book, raising the risk of a tight nitrogen market in the upcoming season. What will be the effects if the EU drops standard import duties on urea, as proposed, and what if it also drops standard import duties on phosphates? If the EU drops the most favoured nation (MFN) duties on urea, this will open up more origin options for importers. More specifically, Egypt and Algeria will lose their current exemption advantage, while all other origins, especially those in the Mideast Gulf, will become more competitive. On top of the 6.5pc MFN duty, Russian producers incur an additional duty of €40/t and €45/t for urea and phosphates, respectively, until June. These will rise [steadily] to a hefty €315/t and €430/t, respectively, by 2028, effectively barring Russian imports. As such, expect Russian suppliers to turn to markets elsewhere. The removal of the MFN duties on phosphate imports would increase sourcing options for the EU, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the US, Russia and China. How has Ethiopia's move away from tenders affected the market and is it a model for other African countries to follow? Ethiopia is testing a way to be more responsive to market dynamics instead of being locked in for long-term periods. Private negotiations give countries greater flexibility. Doing a block of six months is not how the rest of the market trades. So there's a mismatch between how the Ethiopian bureaucrat thinks about the market and how the market actually operates. Ethiopia shifted from importing NPs mainly from Morocco's OCP to suddenly wanting DAP, exactly when DAP was rather tight. Not good timing, but they still had private negotiations and became more responsive to market dynamics. So 2025 imports were quite robust at around 1.3mn t. In the global market, which markets are you most optimistic about for growth in the next 3-6 months? The US, India and Australasia will provide liquidity for nitrogen. The CBAM implementation in Europe will support locally produced CAN, urea, and NPKs, and to a lesser extent, imported urea. Chinese exports of amsul and urea are likely to remain strong in 2026. On phosphates, because of the high prices versus grains in the past year, many markets are under-applied. That includes the US and, to some extent, Brazil on high-concentration fertilizers. Also, stocks are very low across these markets. The US needs to replenish stocks ahead of the key spring season. Brazil is also facing low stock levels and concerns about limited SSP and NP supply. India's demand remains very strong because the government is scared of shortages. Sulphur prices climbed in 2025 and remain firm, well above typical levels. To what extent will sulphur be a driver for phosphates prices? The hike in sulphur prices this past year lifted the phosphates production cost across the board, especially for SSP. As a result, sulphur prices set a floor for phosphates, particularly SSP prices. Expect sulphur demand to remain strong given Indonesian nickel production and Chinese demand. As the Ukraine-Russia conflict drags on, the risk of future production disruptions in Russian plants remains. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New Zealand’s Ballance gets gas supply for urea plant
New Zealand’s Ballance gets gas supply for urea plant
Sydney, 22 January (Argus) — New Zealand fertilizer distributor Ballance Agri-Nutrients has secured a short-term gas supply for its 260,000 t/yr Kapuni urea plant through March this year, it said today. Ballance has required short-term gas supply for the plant since its long-term contract expired on 30 September , the company said on 22 January. The Kapuni plant relies entirely on natural gas both as a feedstock and as a fuel source for urea production, meaning rising gas prices directly increase urea manufacturing costs. High gas prices and dwindling domestic reserves have therefore made local urea production increasingly expensive , and without a secure gas supply the Kapuni plant would be forced to shut down. This is the second short-term gas supply agreement that Ballance has secured for the plant, and the company is seeking both short- and long-term affordable gas supply agreements, the company said. Ballance has increased its imports of urea and other nitrogen products to ensure supply through the autumn months of March-May, in case the Kapuni plant is shut down. New Zealand's urea imports rose to 466,500t in January-November from 460,535t a year earlier, data from Statistics New Zealand show. Affordable and reliable gas supply remains an ongoing issue in New Zealand and will be a key policy topic in the country's upcoming election on 7 November . Ballance did not disclose the volume or source of the latest gas supply. By Susannah Cornford Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ammonia Europe opposes tariff removal, CBAM weakening
Ammonia Europe opposes tariff removal, CBAM weakening
London, 21 January (Argus) — Industry body Ammonia Europe has denounced the European Commission's proposal to remove most-favoured nation (MFN) import tariffs on ammonia to mitigate the impact of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on fertilizers. The EU announced plans to suspend standard import tariffs on ammonia and urea following a meeting of EU agriculture ministers on 7 January, with extensions to other fertilizer products not ruled out. At the same time, the commission's reference to Article 27a created a backlash of confusion around whether CBAM could be suspended for fertilizers. In reality, Article 27a could allow for a temporary and retroactive suspension of CBAM in cases where it has caused "severe harm to the union internal market due to serious and unforeseen circumstances related to the impact on the prices of goods". The clause was included within CBAM amendment proposals issued last month but still needs to be formally approved by both the European Parliament and the Council of the EU. Ammonia Europe is calling on policy makers to "reject short-term fixes which fail to address the root causes of Europe's competitiveness crisis". The industry body highlighted that solutions need to address Europe's energy cost crisis and ensure effective carbon leakage protection. In its 7 January statement, the commission highlighted that fertilizer prices remain 60pc above their 2020 average. But this figure fails to recognise that feedstock natural gas prices have not returned to 2020 levels. European benchmark gas prices averaged $3.20/mn Btu on the front month contract in 2020. The same contract was assessed at $12.50/mn Btu on 19 January. "Removing MFN tariffs does nothing to address this structural issue but rewards imports produced with cheaper energy and greater carbon intensity, ultimately further weakening the EU's industrial base," the statement said. Ammonia is not limited to use in fertilizers. Applications also include pharmaceuticals, plastics, resins, glues, explosives and novel uses within the energy transition, which are all caused further injury by the tariff removal, the industry body said. The commission in July named ammonia as one of a few "critical" chemicals to the EU economy, which require additional support under its own Critical Chemicals Alliance. But removing import tariffs undermines efforts to address capacity closure risks in the chemical sector, and to ensure fair competition with non-EU producers who do not face equivalent carbon costs to those paid by European producers under the EU's emission trading scheme. "MFN tariffs have nothing to do with CBAM. It would be completely wrong to remove them," Ammonia Europe chief executive Stephen Jackson told Argus . "This approach doesn't address root causes and risks further exacerbating Europe's lack of competitiveness." Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights
The complimentary Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights package includes:
• Bi-weekly Fertilizer Newsletter
• Monthly Market Update Video
• Bi-monthly Fertilizer Focus Magazine
Spotlight content
Browse the latest thought leadership produced by our global team of experts.
Fertilizer Matters EP38: CBAM implementation for fertilizers to be suspended by the EU?
Fertilizer Matters EP36: Urea – India, China and CBAM's impact
Global Nitrogen Market Outlook
Explore our nitrogen products
Region and country focused market intelligence
Key price assessments
Argus prices are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.